Filing Flows › Marathon Petroleum (MPC) › Stock forecast & fair value
Marathon Petroleum (MPC) stock forecast and fair value
Marathon Petroleum (MPC) trades at $377.32. 17 analysts' median price target is $466.00 (+24%), from $236.00 to $564.00. Across 27 valuation methods the middle fair value is $496.01 (+31%); the DCF says $2,181.08.
Fair value by method
| Method | Low | Point | High | vs price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Regime-switching Monte Carlo 10th–90th | $366.03 | $2,270.94 | $8,743.14 | +502% |
| DCF — Monte Carlo 10th–90th percentile | $596.44 | $2,181.08 | $4,728.92 | +478% |
| P/E vs peers | $401.67 | $512.71 | $723.53 | +36% |
| P/E vs peers, weighted | $514.46 | $739.93 | $989.45 | +96% |
| EV/EBITDA vs peers | $236.56 | $322.47 | $442.35 | -15% |
| EV/EBITDA vs peers, weighted | $241.56 | $328.58 | $451.50 | -13% |
| EV/Sales vs peers | $194.04 | $321.49 | $569.29 | -15% |
| EV/Sales vs peers, weighted | $209.23 | $378.40 | $1,124.37 | +0.3% |
| Residual income | $373.50 | $389.40 | $406.27 | +3% |
| Sum of the parts (segments × peer EV/Sales) | $733.46 | $1,463.78 | $2,163.79 | +288% |
Marathon Petroleum's latest quarter
Marathon Petroleum, Q3 2026: revenue $56.0B (+61% year over year), operating margin 18.7%, net earnings $7.4B, operating cash flow $10.7B. The chart follows the revenue to costs, profit and cash.
Questions
What is the price target for MPC stock?
The median of 17 analysts' 12-month targets is $466.00, +24% from $377.32; the range is $236.00 to $564.00. The average rating is buy.
What is Marathon Petroleum's fair value?
The fair-value methods on Filing Flows (DCF, Monte Carlo, peer multiples and others) put it between $95.30 and $2,270.94, with a middle value of $496.01 against a price of $377.32. Each method's assumptions are on the page.
Does Marathon Petroleum usually beat earnings estimates?
It beat the consensus EPS estimate in 80% of the quarters on record.
Is MPC stock a buy?
Filing Flows does not give advice. It shows what analysts expect, what each valuation method implies and the figures behind them, read from SEC filings, so you can judge for yourself.
Updated Nov 8, 2026. Read automatically from SEC filings and public data; errors are possible. Not investment advice.