Filing Flows › Strategy (MSTR) › Takeover & LBO
Is Strategy (MSTR) a takeover target?
A leveraged buyout does not work for Strategy on its latest figures: it has no positive EBITDA to borrow against (−$19.3B over the last 12 months, on revenue of $495M). Historically 3.2% of companies with its figures were bought within a year (0.63× the average).
Why a leveraged buyout does not fit
A leveraged buyout is paid for mostly with debt that the company's own cash flow repays. Strategy's EBITDA over the last 12 months was −$19.3B on revenue of $495M, so there is nothing to lend against and nothing to repay a loan with: a buyer would have to pay almost entirely with its own money. That is the kind of deal another company — a strategic buyer that wants the products, the pipeline or the technology — makes, not a private-equity fund. The model therefore gives no buyout price.
What a takeover could cost
Takeovers in its sector paid a median premium of 14.9% over the share price before the deal (the middle half 9.5% to 33.6%), according to the 17 merger proxies and tender-offer responses on EDGAR that state a premium. At the median, Strategy would cost about $173.63 a share, $74.3B for all its shares.
| Premium | % | Price a share | All shares |
|---|---|---|---|
| Low end (a quarter of deals paid less) | 9.5% | $165.47 | $70.8B |
| Median | 14.9% | $173.63 | $74.3B |
| High end (a quarter paid more) | 33.6% | $201.88 | $86.4B |
The odds, from history
Historically 3.2% of companies with its figures were bought within a year (0.63× the average). Its figures put it in decile 2 of 10 (10 = the most likely to be bought). The odds come from a model of every merger proxy, tender-offer response and going-private statement filed on EDGAR since 2011, set against each company's size, margins, debt, cash flow and growth the year before.
Strategy's latest quarter
Strategy, Q3 2026: revenue $125M (-2% year over year), net earnings $19.5B, operating cash flow $4.4M. The chart follows the revenue to costs, profit and cash.
Questions
Is Strategy being acquired?
No headline, 8-K or 13D about a sale is on file in the last year.
Could private equity buy Strategy?
A leveraged buyout does not work for Strategy on its latest figures: it has no positive EBITDA to borrow against (−$19.3B over the last 12 months, on revenue of $495M). With no cash flow to repay a loan, a buyer would pay almost entirely with its own money: a deal for another company (a strategic buyer), not for a private-equity fund.
What would a takeover of Strategy cost?
Takeovers in its sector paid a median premium of 14.9% over the share price before the deal (the middle half 9.5% to 33.6%), according to the 17 merger proxies and tender-offer responses on EDGAR that state a premium. At the median, Strategy would cost about $173.63 a share, $74.3B for all its shares.
Updated Nov 8, 2026. Read automatically from SEC filings and public data; errors are possible. Not investment advice.