Filing Flows › Murphy USA (MUSA) › Takeover & LBO
Is Murphy USA (MUSA) a takeover target?
A leveraged buyout at today's price plus 30% ($668.89 a share) would return about 3% a year to a private-equity buyer over 5 years; the most a buyer could pay for a 20% return is $437.69 a share (−15% against today's $514.53).
The buyout, step by step
| Entry | Amount | How |
|---|---|---|
| Offer price a share | $668.89 | today's $514.53 plus 30% |
| × shares | 18.4 million | |
| = Equity value | $12.3B | |
| + Debt refinanced | $2.2B | |
| − Cash | $196M | |
| = Enterprise value | $14.3B | 11.2× EBITDA of $1.3B |
| Fees | $285M | 2% of the price |
| New debt | $7.0B | 5.5× EBITDA at 7.65% a year; the limit that binds: 5.5× EBITDA |
| Buyer's own money | $7.6B | 52% of the cost |
5 years under the buyer
| Year | Revenue | EBITDA | Interest | Free cash flow | Debt left |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | $25.1B | $1.4B | $535M | $9.3M | $7.0B |
| Year 2 | $26.8B | $1.5B | $535M | $67.1M | $6.9B |
| Year 3 | $28.3B | $1.5B | $529M | $129M | $6.8B |
| Year 4 | $29.5B | $1.6B | $520M | $192M | $6.6B |
| Year 5 | $30.4B | $1.7B | $505M | $256M | $6.3B |
The exit and the buyer's return
| Exit | Amount | |
|---|---|---|
| Exit multiple | 9.0× EBITDA | today's trading multiple, before any premium |
| Enterprise value at exit | $14.9B | |
| − Debt left | $6.3B | |
| = Buyer's equity | $8.6B | |
| Money multiple | 1.14× | on $7.6B put in |
| Buyer's yearly return (IRR) | 2.6% |
Price against return
What the buyer makes at other premiums over today's $514.53; the IRR reaches 20% at $437.69 a share.
| Premium | Price a share | Buyer's IRR |
|---|---|---|
| 10% | $565.98 | 8.8% |
| 20% | $617.44 | 5.4% |
| 30% | $668.89 | 2.6% |
| 40% | $720.34 | 0.2% |
| 50% | $771.79 | −2.0% |
The figures used
| Figure | Amount | |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue, last 12 months | $23.3B | |
| EBITDA, last 12 months | $1.3B | 5.5% of revenue |
| Depreciation and amortization | $292M | |
| Capital spending | $481M | |
| Debt | $2.2B | |
| Cash | $196M | |
| Share price | $514.53 | on Nov 6, 2026 |
Fixed rules, the same as the interactive view's starting point: the shares are bought at today's price plus 30%, the company's debt is refinanced and fees take 2%. New debt is the least of 5.5× EBITDA, 65% of the price and the amount whose interest EBITDA covers 2 times, at 7.65% a year (SOFR 3.89% plus the high-yield B spread 3.26% plus 0.5%, rates of Oct 15, 2026). Revenue grows 8.0% in the first year — the company's own rate, held between −3% and +8% — fading to 3% by year 5; the EBITDA margin, depreciation and capital spending stay at today's share of revenue; working capital takes 10% of each year's added revenue; tax is 24% of profit after interest. Every dollar of free cash flow repays debt. After 5 years the buyer sells at today's multiple of EBITDA.
What a takeover could cost
Takeovers on record paid a median premium of 32.5% over the share price before the deal (the middle half 20% to 51.8%), according to the 1,437 merger proxies and tender-offer responses on EDGAR that state a premium. At the median, Murphy USA would cost about $681.75 a share, $12.5B for all its shares.
| Premium | % | Price a share | All shares |
|---|---|---|---|
| Low end (a quarter of deals paid less) | 20% | $617.44 | $11.3B |
| Median | 32.5% | $681.75 | $12.5B |
| High end (a quarter paid more) | 51.8% | $781.06 | $14.3B |
Murphy USA's latest quarter
Murphy USA, Q3 2026: revenue $6.9B (+35% year over year), operating margin 3.8%, net earnings $176M, operating cash flow $348M. The chart follows the revenue to costs, profit and cash.
Questions
Is Murphy USA being acquired?
No headline, 8-K or 13D about a sale is on file in the last year.
Could private equity buy Murphy USA?
A leveraged buyout at today's price plus 30% ($668.89 a share) would return about 3% a year to a private-equity buyer over 5 years; the most a buyer could pay for a 20% return is $437.69 a share (−15% against today's $514.53).
What would a takeover of Murphy USA cost?
Takeovers on record paid a median premium of 32.5% over the share price before the deal (the middle half 20% to 51.8%), according to the 1,437 merger proxies and tender-offer responses on EDGAR that state a premium. At the median, Murphy USA would cost about $681.75 a share, $12.5B for all its shares.
Updated Nov 8, 2026. Read automatically from SEC filings and public data; errors are possible. Not investment advice.