Filing Flows › Companies › Mueller Water Products › Analysis traps
Mueller Water Products (MWA): analysis traps
Where its figures could mislead a reader, and what to check before taking them at face value · Data: Q4 FY26, to Sep 30, 2026, filed Nov 4, 2026; rules v1.1
Mueller Water Products (MWA): 0 rules of 10 triggered on the filings to Sep 30, 2026. 2 to review; 1 with insufficient data; 2 not applicable. Each is a question to verify, with the normal explanation that would produce the same figures.
Check these first
Low P/E at a cyclical peak = undervalued To review · confidence medium
Net income of $222M is at a high against a median of $86M over eight years; at 17.0× the market is not pricing it as cheap, but a multiple on this year's profit still understates the mid-cycle one (44.2×).
A precise DCF value = the true value To review · confidence high
The DCF's point value is 23.23 a share (price 24.05); 73% of it is the terminal value, a number about years no one has seen. Moving revenue growth (each year) by ±5 pts alone takes it from 18.94 to 28.37; across every method the research ran the range is 5 to 54. The value is a range; the decimals are not information.
Innocent reading: A stable, mature business with a narrow range of outcomes, where the point value is a fair summary.
Every rule
A01 FCF growth = the business improved Not triggered confidence high
Free cash flow did not rise ($191M → $172M): the trap does not arise.
The figures and how they are read
| Fiscal year before | FY24 |
| Fiscal year | FY25 |
| Operating cash flow, year before | $239M |
| Operating cash flow | $219M |
| Capex, year before | $47M |
| Capex | $47M |
| Free cash flow, year before | $191M |
| Free cash flow | $172M |
| Change in FCF | −$19M |
| Change in capex | −$100K |
| Working capital: change in its cash contribution | −$68M |
FCF = operating cash flow − cash capex; ΔFCF = ΔOCF − ΔCapEx; the working-capital part is the change in the cash-bridge items (receivables, inventory, payables, accruals), with the sign of the cash flow statement
Source: FY25 (cash flow statement, fiscal year) · FY24 (cash flow statement, fiscal year before)
A07 Stock compensation added back = no economic cost Not triggered confidence high
Stock compensation is 0.7% of revenue: small enough that adding it back changes little.
The figures and how they are read
| Fiscal year | FY25 |
| Stock compensation | $11M |
| Revenue | $1.4B |
| SBC / revenue | +0.8% |
| Buybacks | $15M |
| Buybacks / SBC | 1.4 |
| Diluted shares, year before | 156.9M shares |
| Diluted shares | 157.5M shares |
| Diluted shares: change | +0.4% |
SBC / revenue from the cash flow statement's add-back; the diluted weighted share count year over year; buybacks from the financing section
Source: FY25 (stock compensation, buybacks and the diluted share count, fiscal year)
B02 Receivables growing = future cash is certain Not triggered confidence medium
Receivables grew -1% against revenue 4% in Q3 FY26; DSO 47 against a median of 50: collections are keeping pace with sales.
The figures and how they are read
| Quarter | Q3 FY26 |
| Revenue, year over year | +4.1% |
| Receivables, year over year | -1.1% |
| Quarter before | Q2 FY26 |
| Revenue y/y, quarter before | +5.5% |
| Receivables y/y, quarter before | -3.1% |
| Days sales outstanding | 47.3 |
| DSO, median of eight quarters | 50.4 |
| Receivables | $203M |
| Revenue | $396M |
receivables and revenue against the same quarter a year earlier; DSO = receivables / quarterly revenue × days, against the median of the eight quarters before
Source: Q3 FY26 (receivables and revenue) · Q3 FY25 (the same quarter a year earlier)
B08 Adjusted profit = economic profit Insufficient data
no reconciliation table read from the releases yet and fewer than three quarters with both an adjusted and a GAAP EPS
C02 Low net debt = no refinancing risk Not triggered confidence medium
$1M comes due within a year, 562.4× covered by cash and investments of $495M plus $180M of free cash flow.
The figures and how they are read
| Cash and investments | $495M |
| Debt | $453M |
| Net debt | −$42M |
| Due within a year | $1M |
| Read from | the debt maturity table |
| Free cash flow, twelve months | $180M |
| Cash plus free cash flow | $675M |
| Coverage of what is due | 562.4 |
| Due in the second year | $1M |
| Balance sheet date | 2026-06-30 |
due within a year from the maturity table (else the current portion of debt), against cash and investments plus free cash flow over the last twelve months (zero if negative); no credit lines assumed
Source: FY25 (debt maturities, cash and investments)
D03 EPS growth = profit growth Not triggered confidence high
EPS rose 28% and net income rose 28% in Q3 FY26; the share count fell 0.1%: EPS growth follows profit growth.
The figures and how they are read
| Quarter | Q3 FY26 |
| Quarter before | Q3 FY25 |
| EPS, year before | $0.33 |
| EPS | $0.43 |
| Net income, year before | $52M |
| Net income | $67M |
| Diluted shares, year before | 157.4M shares |
| Diluted shares | 157.3M shares |
| EPS growth | +28.1% |
| Net income growth | +28.2% |
| Diluted shares: change | -0.1% |
| eps from profit | $0.09 |
| eps from share count | $0.00 |
EPS and net income against the same quarter a year earlier; the EPS bridge attributes the change to profit first, then to the share count (the order is fixed and disclosed)
Source: Q3 FY26 (net income, diluted shares, EPS) · Q3 FY25 (the same quarter a year earlier)
E02 Low P/E at a cyclical peak = undervalued To review confidence medium
Net income of $222M is at a high against a median of $86M over eight years; at 17.0× the market is not pricing it as cheap, but a multiple on this year's profit still understates the mid-cycle one (44.2×).
The figures and how they are read
| market value | $3.8B |
| net income ttm | $222M |
| pe ttm | 17.00 |
| net income median fy | $86M |
| pe mid cycle | 44.20 |
| net income peak fy | $192M |
| years | FY18 / 106.0; FY19 / 64.0; FY20 / 72.0; FY21 / 70.0; FY22 / 77.0; FY23 / 86.0; FY24 / 116.0; FY25 / 192.0 |
| down years in window | 2 |
P/E on the trailing twelve months' net income against the P/E on the median net income of the last eight fiscal years (a mid-cycle stand-in); 'at a peak' = this year's profit at or above 90% of the best year and at least 1.3× the median
Source: Q4 FY26 (net income, trailing twelve months)
What would show the trap does not apply
- Profit holds at this level through the next two years (the eight-year peak was a new base, not a top)
- The industry's capacity and prices stay where they are rather than reverting
Look again: next filing.
E07 A precise DCF value = the true value To review confidence high
The DCF's point value is 23.23 a share (price 24.05); 73% of it is the terminal value, a number about years no one has seen. Moving revenue growth (each year) by ±5 pts alone takes it from 18.94 to 28.37; across every method the research ran the range is 5 to 54. The value is a range; the decimals are not information.
The figures and how they are read
| dcf value | 23.23 |
| price | 24.05 |
| terminal value share | +73.5% |
| swing by input | Revenue growth (each year) / ±5 pts / 18.94 / 28.37; WACC / ±1 pt / 20.11 / 27.54; Operating margin / ±3 pts / 19.63 / 26.84; Tax rate / ±5 pts / 21.75 / 24.72 |
| range all methods | 4.75; 54.1 |
the DCF's point value against the share of it that is the terminal value and the value at each input moved by one step (growth ±5 pts, WACC ±1 pt, margin ±3 pts …); the range across every method the research ran
Source: 2026-11-08 (valuation research)
What would explain it innocently
- A stable, mature business with a narrow range of outcomes, where the point value is a fair summary
- The inputs that matter most are themselves well known (a regulated return, a long contract)
What to look for in the filing
- Which input you believe differs from the research's and why
- What the price implies for growth (the reverse DCF on the fair-value page)
What would show the trap does not apply
- The DCF's value is robust to the terminal growth and discount rate (the range's low end is still above the price)
- The company's cash flows over the next three years track the DCF's early years
Look again: next filing.
J06 A bank's low P/E and high profit = safe Not applicable
not a bank
J08 A REIT's low net income = the dividend is unsafe Not applicable
not a REIT
What the statuses mean
Triggered: the filings show the pattern; read the normal explanations and the missing evidence before concluding anything. To review: one quarter or a weak signal; a reader's judgement, not a pattern. Not triggered: the pattern is absent on these figures. Insufficient data: the filings read so far do not hold what the rule needs; this is not a clean bill. Not applicable: the rule is not meant for this kind of company (a bank's working capital, a loss-making quarter's EPS growth). Out of date: the latest filing is more than fifteen months old.
Severity is what the pattern could mean for cash, value or solvency; confidence is how reliable the inputs and the reading are. The two are kept apart.
Record a view
A reader's judgement, grounds, what would change it and the next review; kept in the browser (needs JavaScript).
Every rule and the companies it triggers on → Mueller Water Products: cash flow → Earnings quality score →
Each rule reads the company's own filings by a fixed formula and says what would explain the same figures innocently. A triggered rule is a question to verify, not a finding of manipulation, and not a view on the stock. Missing data is shown as missing, never as clear. Not investment advice.