Filing Flows › Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings (NCLH) › Takeover & LBO
Is Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings (NCLH) a takeover target?
A leveraged buyout at today's price plus 30% ($23.21 a share) would return a loss of about 12% a year to a private-equity buyer over 5 years; no price, however low, gets a buyer to 20%.
The buyout, step by step
| Entry | Amount | How |
|---|---|---|
| Offer price a share | $23.21 | today's $17.86 plus 30% |
| × shares | 460.4 million | |
| = Equity value | $10.7B | |
| + Debt refinanced | $15.5B | |
| − Cash | $257M | |
| = Enterprise value | $25.9B | 9.7× EBITDA of $2.7B |
| Fees | $519M | 2% of the price |
| New debt | $14.7B | 5.5× EBITDA at 7.65% a year; the limit that binds: 5.5× EBITDA |
| Buyer's own money | $11.8B | 45% of the cost |
5 years under the buyer
| Year | Revenue | EBITDA | Interest | Free cash flow | Debt left |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | $10.7B | $2.8B | $1.1B | −$1.3B | $15.9B |
| Year 2 | $11.1B | $2.9B | $1.2B | −$1.4B | $17.3B |
| Year 3 | $11.6B | $3.0B | $1.3B | −$1.5B | $18.8B |
| Year 4 | $12.0B | $3.1B | $1.4B | −$1.6B | $20.4B |
| Year 5 | $12.3B | $3.2B | $1.6B | −$1.7B | $22.1B |
The exit and the buyer's return
| Exit | Amount | |
|---|---|---|
| Exit multiple | 8.8× EBITDA | today's trading multiple, before any premium |
| Enterprise value at exit | $28.4B | |
| − Debt left | $22.1B | |
| = Buyer's equity | $6.4B | |
| Money multiple | 0.54× | on $11.8B put in |
| Buyer's yearly return (IRR) | −11.5% |
Price against return
What the buyer makes at other premiums over today's $17.86.
| Premium | Price a share | Buyer's IRR |
|---|---|---|
| 10% | $19.64 | −8.8% |
| 20% | $21.43 | −10.2% |
| 30% | $23.21 | −11.5% |
| 40% | $25.00 | −12.7% |
| 50% | $26.78 | −13.9% |
The figures used
| Figure | Amount | |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue, last 12 months | $10.2B | |
| EBITDA, last 12 months | $2.7B | 26.2% of revenue |
| Depreciation and amortization | $1.3B | |
| Capital spending | $2.7B | |
| Debt | $15.5B | |
| Cash | $257M | |
| Share price | $17.86 | on Nov 6, 2026 |
Fixed rules, the same as the interactive view's starting point: the shares are bought at today's price plus 30%, the company's debt is refinanced and fees take 2%. New debt is the least of 5.5× EBITDA, 65% of the price and the amount whose interest EBITDA covers 2 times, at 7.65% a year (SOFR 3.89% plus the high-yield B spread 3.26% plus 0.5%, rates of Oct 15, 2026). Revenue grows 4.9% in the first year — the company's own rate, held between −3% and +8% — fading to 3% by year 5; the EBITDA margin, depreciation and capital spending stay at today's share of revenue; working capital takes 10% of each year's added revenue; tax is 12% of profit after interest. Every dollar of free cash flow repays debt. After 5 years the buyer sells at today's multiple of EBITDA.
What a takeover could cost
Takeovers in its sector paid a median premium of 40% over the share price before the deal (the middle half 14.7% to 60.2%), according to the 20 merger proxies and tender-offer responses on EDGAR that state a premium. At the median, Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings would cost about $25.00 a share, $11.5B for all its shares.
| Premium | % | Price a share | All shares |
|---|---|---|---|
| Low end (a quarter of deals paid less) | 14.7% | $20.48 | $9.4B |
| Median | 40% | $25.00 | $11.5B |
| High end (a quarter paid more) | 60.2% | $28.60 | $13.2B |
Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings' latest quarter
Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings, Q3 2026: revenue $2.9B (+0.3% year over year), operating margin 21.2%, net earnings $491M, operating cash flow $292M. The chart follows the revenue to costs, profit and cash.
Questions
Is Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings being acquired?
No headline, 8-K or 13D about a sale is on file in the last year.
Could private equity buy Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings?
A leveraged buyout at today's price plus 30% ($23.21 a share) would return a loss of about 12% a year to a private-equity buyer over 5 years; no price, however low, gets a buyer to 20%.
What would a takeover of Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings cost?
Takeovers in its sector paid a median premium of 40% over the share price before the deal (the middle half 14.7% to 60.2%), according to the 20 merger proxies and tender-offer responses on EDGAR that state a premium. At the median, Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings would cost about $25.00 a share, $11.5B for all its shares.
Updated Nov 8, 2026. Read automatically from SEC filings and public data; errors are possible. Not investment advice.