Filing Flows › Netflix (NFLX) › Takeover & LBO
Is Netflix (NFLX) a takeover target?
A leveraged buyout at today's price plus 30% ($85.23 a share) would return about 3% a year to a private-equity buyer over 5 years; the most a buyer could pay for a 20% return is $50.00 a share (−24% against today's $65.56). At $364.5B it would be larger than any buyout on record (the model flags anything over $60 billion), so this is a thought experiment more than a prospect. Historically 2.3% of companies with its figures were bought within a year (0.47× the average).
The buyout, step by step
| Entry | Amount | How |
|---|---|---|
| Offer price a share | $85.23 | today's $65.56 plus 30% |
| × shares | 4,195.1 million | |
| = Equity value | $357.5B | |
| + Debt refinanced | $15.1B | |
| − Cash | $8.2B | |
| = Enterprise value | $364.5B | 22.8× EBITDA of $16.0B |
| Fees | $7.3B | 2% of the price |
| New debt | $87.8B | 5.5× EBITDA at 7.65% a year; the limit that binds: 5.5× EBITDA |
| Buyer's own money | $284.0B | 76% of the cost |
5 years under the buyer
| Year | Revenue | EBITDA | Interest | Free cash flow | Debt left |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | $53.7B | $17.2B | $6.7B | $7.4B | $80.3B |
| Year 2 | $57.3B | $18.4B | $6.1B | $8.9B | $71.5B |
| Year 3 | $60.5B | $19.4B | $5.5B | $10.3B | $61.2B |
| Year 4 | $63.1B | $20.2B | $4.7B | $11.6B | $49.6B |
| Year 5 | $65.0B | $20.8B | $3.8B | $12.9B | $36.7B |
The exit and the buyer's return
| Exit | Amount | |
|---|---|---|
| Exit multiple | 17.7× EBITDA | today's trading multiple, before any premium |
| Enterprise value at exit | $368.2B | |
| − Debt left | $36.7B | |
| = Buyer's equity | $331.5B | |
| Money multiple | 1.17× | on $284.0B put in |
| Buyer's yearly return (IRR) | 3.1% |
Price against return
What the buyer makes at other premiums over today's $65.56; the IRR reaches 20% at $50.00 a share.
| Premium | Price a share | Buyer's IRR |
|---|---|---|
| 10% | $72.12 | 7.8% |
| 20% | $78.67 | 5.3% |
| 30% | $85.23 | 3.1% |
| 40% | $91.78 | 1.2% |
| 50% | $98.34 | −0.5% |
The figures used
| Figure | Amount | |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue, last 12 months | $49.7B | |
| EBITDA, last 12 months | $16.0B | 32.1% of revenue |
| Depreciation and amortization | $392M | |
| Capital spending | $933M | |
| Debt | $15.1B | |
| Cash | $8.2B | |
| Share price | $65.56 | on Nov 5, 2026 |
Fixed rules, the same as the interactive view's starting point: the shares are bought at today's price plus 30%, the company's debt is refinanced and fees take 2%. New debt is the least of 5.5× EBITDA, 65% of the price and the amount whose interest EBITDA covers 2 times, at 7.65% a year (SOFR 3.89% plus the high-yield B spread 3.26% plus 0.5%, rates of Oct 15, 2026). Revenue grows 8.0% in the first year — the company's own rate, held between −3% and +8% — fading to 3% by year 5; the EBITDA margin, depreciation and capital spending stay at today's share of revenue; working capital takes 10% of each year's added revenue; tax is 17% of profit after interest. Every dollar of free cash flow repays debt. After 5 years the buyer sells at today's multiple of EBITDA.
What a takeover could cost
Takeovers on record paid a median premium of 32.5% over the share price before the deal (the middle half 20% to 51.8%), according to the 1,437 merger proxies and tender-offer responses on EDGAR that state a premium. At the median, Netflix would cost about $86.87 a share, $364.4B for all its shares.
| Premium | % | Price a share | All shares |
|---|---|---|---|
| Low end (a quarter of deals paid less) | 20% | $78.67 | $330.0B |
| Median | 32.5% | $86.87 | $364.4B |
| High end (a quarter paid more) | 51.8% | $99.52 | $417.5B |
The odds, from history
Historically 2.3% of companies with its figures were bought within a year (0.47× the average). Its figures put it in decile 1 of 10 (10 = the most likely to be bought). The odds come from a model of every merger proxy, tender-offer response and going-private statement filed on EDGAR since 2011, set against each company's size, margins, debt, cash flow and growth the year before.
Netflix's latest quarter
Netflix, Q3 2026: revenue $12.9B (+12% year over year), operating margin 34.6%, net earnings $3.7B, operating cash flow $3.2B. The chart follows the revenue to costs, profit and cash.
Questions
Is Netflix being acquired?
No headline, 8-K or 13D about a sale is on file in the last year.
Could private equity buy Netflix?
A leveraged buyout at today's price plus 30% ($85.23 a share) would return about 3% a year to a private-equity buyer over 5 years; the most a buyer could pay for a 20% return is $50.00 a share (−24% against today's $65.56). At $364.5B it would be larger than any buyout on record (the model flags anything over $60 billion), so this is a thought experiment more than a prospect.
What would a takeover of Netflix cost?
Takeovers on record paid a median premium of 32.5% over the share price before the deal (the middle half 20% to 51.8%), according to the 1,437 merger proxies and tender-offer responses on EDGAR that state a premium. At the median, Netflix would cost about $86.87 a share, $364.4B for all its shares.
Updated Nov 8, 2026. Read automatically from SEC filings and public data; errors are possible. Not investment advice.