Filing Flows › NiSource (NI) › Takeover & LBO
Is NiSource (NI) a takeover target?
A leveraged buyout at today's price plus 30% ($57.65 a share) would return a loss of about 6% a year to a private-equity buyer over 5 years; the most a buyer could pay for a 20% return is $11.56 a share (−74% against today's $44.34). Historically 1.8% of companies with its figures were bought within a year (0.36× the average).
The buyout, step by step
| Entry | Amount | How |
|---|---|---|
| Offer price a share | $57.65 | today's $44.34 plus 30% |
| × shares | 481.1 million | |
| = Equity value | $27.7B | |
| + Debt refinanced | $18.3B | |
| − Cash | $57.5M | |
| + Other claims | $2.4B | preferred stock, minority interests |
| = Enterprise value | $48.3B | 15.1× EBITDA of $3.2B |
| Fees | $966M | 2% of the price |
| New debt | $17.6B | 5.5× EBITDA at 7.65% a year; the limit that binds: 5.5× EBITDA |
| Buyer's own money | $31.7B | 64% of the cost |
5 years under the buyer
| Year | Revenue | EBITDA | Interest | Free cash flow | Debt left |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | $12.3B | $3.5B | $1.3B | −$2.3B | $20.0B |
| Year 2 | $13.2B | $3.7B | $1.5B | −$2.6B | $22.5B |
| Year 3 | $13.9B | $3.9B | $1.7B | −$2.8B | $25.3B |
| Year 4 | $14.5B | $4.1B | $1.9B | −$3.0B | $28.3B |
| Year 5 | $14.9B | $4.2B | $2.2B | −$3.2B | $31.6B |
The exit and the buyer's return
| Exit | Amount | |
|---|---|---|
| Exit multiple | 13.1× EBITDA | today's trading multiple, before any premium |
| Enterprise value at exit | $54.8B | |
| − Debt left | $31.6B | |
| = Buyer's equity | $23.2B | |
| Money multiple | 0.73× | on $31.7B put in |
| Buyer's yearly return (IRR) | −6.0% |
Price against return
What the buyer makes at other premiums over today's $44.34; the IRR reaches 20% at $11.56 a share.
| Premium | Price a share | Buyer's IRR |
|---|---|---|
| 10% | $48.78 | −3.2% |
| 20% | $53.21 | −4.7% |
| 30% | $57.65 | −6.0% |
| 40% | $62.08 | −7.3% |
| 50% | $66.52 | −8.4% |
The figures used
| Figure | Amount | |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue, last 12 months | $11.4B | |
| EBITDA, last 12 months | $3.2B | 28.0% of revenue |
| Depreciation and amortization | $1.3B | |
| Capital spending | $3.9B | |
| Debt | $18.3B | |
| Cash | $57.5M | |
| Share price | $44.34 | on Nov 6, 2026 |
Fixed rules, the same as the interactive view's starting point: the shares are bought at today's price plus 30%, the company's debt is refinanced and fees take 2%. New debt is the least of 5.5× EBITDA, 65% of the price and the amount whose interest EBITDA covers 2 times, at 7.65% a year (SOFR 3.89% plus the high-yield B spread 3.26% plus 0.5%, rates of Oct 15, 2026). Revenue grows 8.0% in the first year — the company's own rate, held between −3% and +8% — fading to 3% by year 5; the EBITDA margin, depreciation and capital spending stay at today's share of revenue; working capital takes 10% of each year's added revenue; tax is 14% of profit after interest. Every dollar of free cash flow repays debt. After 5 years the buyer sells at today's multiple of EBITDA.
What a takeover could cost
Takeovers on record paid a median premium of 32.5% over the share price before the deal (the middle half 20% to 51.8%), according to the 1,437 merger proxies and tender-offer responses on EDGAR that state a premium. At the median, NiSource would cost about $58.76 a share, $28.3B for all its shares.
| Premium | % | Price a share | All shares |
|---|---|---|---|
| Low end (a quarter of deals paid less) | 20% | $53.21 | $25.6B |
| Median | 32.5% | $58.76 | $28.3B |
| High end (a quarter paid more) | 51.8% | $67.32 | $32.4B |
The odds, from history
Historically 1.8% of companies with its figures were bought within a year (0.36× the average). Its figures put it in decile 1 of 10 (10 = the most likely to be bought). The odds come from a model of every merger proxy, tender-offer response and going-private statement filed on EDGAR since 2011, set against each company's size, margins, debt, cash flow and growth the year before.
NiSource's latest quarter
NiSource, Q3 2026: revenue $1.3B (+5% year over year), operating margin 26.2%, net earnings $130M, operating cash flow $547M. The chart follows the revenue to costs, profit and cash.
Questions
Is NiSource being acquired?
No headline, 8-K or 13D about a sale is on file in the last year.
Could private equity buy NiSource?
A leveraged buyout at today's price plus 30% ($57.65 a share) would return a loss of about 6% a year to a private-equity buyer over 5 years; the most a buyer could pay for a 20% return is $11.56 a share (−74% against today's $44.34).
What would a takeover of NiSource cost?
Takeovers on record paid a median premium of 32.5% over the share price before the deal (the middle half 20% to 51.8%), according to the 1,437 merger proxies and tender-offer responses on EDGAR that state a premium. At the median, NiSource would cost about $58.76 a share, $28.3B for all its shares.
Updated Nov 8, 2026. Read automatically from SEC filings and public data; errors are possible. Not investment advice.