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New Jersey Resources (NJR): analysis traps
Where its figures could mislead a reader, and what to check before taking them at face value · Data: Q3 FY26, to Jun 30, 2026, filed Aug 4, 2026; rules v1.1
New Jersey Resources (NJR): 0 rules of 10 triggered on the filings to Jun 30, 2026. 2 to review; 2 with insufficient data; 3 not applicable. Each is a question to verify, with the normal explanation that would produce the same figures.
Check these first
Low P/E at a cyclical peak = undervalued To review · confidence medium
Net income of $358M is at a high against a median of $265M over eight years; at 15.4× the market is not pricing it as cheap, but a multiple on this year's profit still understates the mid-cycle one (20.9×).
A precise DCF value = the true value To review · confidence high
The DCF's point value is 86.00 a share (price 54.34); 76% of it is the terminal value, a number about years no one has seen. Moving wacc by ±1 pt alone takes it from 60.61 to 132.91; across every method the research ran the range is -9 to 299. The value is a range; the decimals are not information.
Innocent reading: A stable, mature business with a narrow range of outcomes, where the point value is a fair summary.
Every rule
A01 FCF growth = the business improved Insufficient data
fewer than two fiscal years with operating cash flow and capital expenditure on file
A07 Stock compensation added back = no economic cost Not triggered confidence high
Stock compensation is 0.9% of revenue: small enough that adding it back changes little.
The figures and how they are read
| Fiscal year | FY25 |
| Stock compensation | $18M |
| Revenue | $2.0B |
| SBC / revenue | +0.9% |
| Buybacks | 0 |
| Buybacks / SBC | 0.0 |
| Diluted shares, year before | 99.3M shares |
| Diluted shares | 100.8M shares |
| Diluted shares: change | +1.5% |
SBC / revenue from the cash flow statement's add-back; the diluted weighted share count year over year; buybacks from the financing section
Source: FY25 (stock compensation, buybacks and the diluted share count, fiscal year)
B02 Receivables growing = future cash is certain Insufficient data
fewer than five quarters with receivables and revenue on file (a year-over-year comparison needs five)
B08 Adjusted profit = economic profit Not triggered confidence low
Adjusted and GAAP EPS were within 10% of each other in the last 3 quarters.
The figures and how they are read
| Quarter / adjusted EPS / GAAP EPS / gap | 2025-12-31 / 1.17 / 1.21 / -0.034; 2026-03-31 / 2.2 / 2.16 / 0.018; 2026-06-30 / 0.11 / 0.1 / 0.091 |
| Quarters with adjusted ≥ 10% above GAAP | 0 |
| Quarters compared | 3 |
| Latest gap | +9.1% |
the analysts' 'actual' (usually the company's adjusted EPS) against GAAP net income ÷ diluted shares for the matching quarter; a gap of 10% or more counts (the stand-in until three releases' reconciliation tables are on file)
Source: 2025-12-31 (adjusted 1.17 vs GAAP 1.21) · 2026-03-31 (adjusted 2.20 vs GAAP 2.16) · 2026-06-30 (adjusted 0.11 vs GAAP 0.10)
C02 Low net debt = no refinancing risk Not triggered confidence medium
$503M comes due within a year, 1.4× covered by cash and investments of $34M plus $659M of free cash flow.
The figures and how they are read
| Cash and investments | $34M |
| Debt | $3.7B |
| Net debt | $3.7B |
| Due within a year | $503M |
| Read from | the current portion of debt on the balance sheet |
| Free cash flow, twelve months | $659M |
| Cash plus free cash flow | $693M |
| Coverage of what is due | 1.4 |
| Due in the second year | — |
| Balance sheet date | 2026-06-30 |
due within a year from the maturity table (else the current portion of debt), against cash and investments plus free cash flow over the last twelve months (zero if negative); no credit lines assumed
Source: 2026-06-30 (debt maturities, cash and investments)
D03 EPS growth = profit growth Not applicable
a loss in one of the quarters: EPS growth has no meaning
E02 Low P/E at a cyclical peak = undervalued To review confidence medium
Net income of $358M is at a high against a median of $265M over eight years; at 15.4× the market is not pricing it as cheap, but a multiple on this year's profit still understates the mid-cycle one (20.9×).
The figures and how they are read
| market value | $5.5B |
| net income ttm | $358M |
| pe ttm | 15.40 |
| net income median fy | $265M |
| pe mid cycle | 20.90 |
| net income peak fy | $336M |
| years | FY18 / 233.0; FY19 / 170.0; FY20 / 194.0; FY21 / 118.0; FY22 / 275.0; FY23 / 265.0; FY24 / 290.0; FY25 / 336.0 |
| down years in window | 3 |
P/E on the trailing twelve months' net income against the P/E on the median net income of the last eight fiscal years (a mid-cycle stand-in); 'at a peak' = this year's profit at or above 90% of the best year and at least 1.3× the median
Source: Q3 FY26 (net income, trailing twelve months)
What would show the trap does not apply
- Profit holds at this level through the next two years (the eight-year peak was a new base, not a top)
- The industry's capacity and prices stay where they are rather than reverting
Look again: next filing.
E07 A precise DCF value = the true value To review confidence high
The DCF's point value is 86.00 a share (price 54.34); 76% of it is the terminal value, a number about years no one has seen. Moving wacc by ±1 pt alone takes it from 60.61 to 132.91; across every method the research ran the range is -9 to 299. The value is a range; the decimals are not information.
The figures and how they are read
| dcf value | 86.00 |
| price | 54.34 |
| terminal value share | +75.5% |
| swing by input | WACC / ±1 pt / 60.61 / 132.91; Revenue growth (each year) / ±5 pts / 62.5 / 114.14; Operating margin / ±3 pts / 72.35 / 99.65; Terminal growth / ±0.5 pt / 78.88 / 95.58 |
| range all methods | -9.17; 299.41 |
the DCF's point value against the share of it that is the terminal value and the value at each input moved by one step (growth ±5 pts, WACC ±1 pt, margin ±3 pts …); the range across every method the research ran
Source: 2026-11-08 (valuation research)
What would explain it innocently
- A stable, mature business with a narrow range of outcomes, where the point value is a fair summary
- The inputs that matter most are themselves well known (a regulated return, a long contract)
What to look for in the filing
- Which input you believe differs from the research's and why
- What the price implies for growth (the reverse DCF on the fair-value page)
What would show the trap does not apply
- The DCF's value is robust to the terminal growth and discount rate (the range's low end is still above the price)
- The company's cash flows over the next three years track the DCF's early years
Look again: next filing.
J06 A bank's low P/E and high profit = safe Not applicable
not a bank
J08 A REIT's low net income = the dividend is unsafe Not applicable
not a REIT
What the statuses mean
Triggered: the filings show the pattern; read the normal explanations and the missing evidence before concluding anything. To review: one quarter or a weak signal; a reader's judgement, not a pattern. Not triggered: the pattern is absent on these figures. Insufficient data: the filings read so far do not hold what the rule needs; this is not a clean bill. Not applicable: the rule is not meant for this kind of company (a bank's working capital, a loss-making quarter's EPS growth). Out of date: the latest filing is more than fifteen months old.
Severity is what the pattern could mean for cash, value or solvency; confidence is how reliable the inputs and the reading are. The two are kept apart.
Record a view
A reader's judgement, grounds, what would change it and the next review; kept in the browser (needs JavaScript).
Every rule and the companies it triggers on → New Jersey Resources: cash flow →
Each rule reads the company's own filings by a fixed formula and says what would explain the same figures innocently. A triggered rule is a question to verify, not a finding of manipulation, and not a view on the stock. Missing data is shown as missing, never as clear. Not investment advice.