Filing Flows › NRG Energy (NRG) › Takeover & LBO
Is NRG Energy (NRG) a takeover target?
A leveraged buyout at today's price plus 30% ($104.72 a share) would return about 6% a year to a private-equity buyer over 5 years; the most a buyer could pay for a 20% return is $38.92 a share (−52% against today's $80.55). It already carries 7.6× EBITDA in net debt (the model flags anything over 6×), so a buyer could add little debt of its own. Historically 1.6% of companies with its figures were bought within a year (0.32× the average).
The buyout, step by step
| Entry | Amount | How |
|---|---|---|
| Offer price a share | $104.72 | today's $80.55 plus 30% |
| × shares | 212.0 million | |
| = Equity value | $22.2B | |
| + Debt refinanced | $23.4B | |
| − Cash | $162M | |
| + Other claims | $650M | preferred stock, minority interests |
| = Enterprise value | $46.1B | 15.0× EBITDA of $3.1B |
| Fees | $922M | 2% of the price |
| New debt | $16.9B | 5.5× EBITDA at 7.65% a year; the limit that binds: 5.5× EBITDA |
| Buyer's own money | $30.1B | 64% of the cost |
5 years under the buyer
| Year | Revenue | EBITDA | Interest | Free cash flow | Debt left |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | $35.8B | $3.3B | $1.3B | $287M | $16.6B |
| Year 2 | $38.2B | $3.5B | $1.3B | $436M | $16.2B |
| Year 3 | $40.3B | $3.7B | $1.2B | $588M | $15.6B |
| Year 4 | $42.0B | $3.9B | $1.2B | $740M | $14.8B |
| Year 5 | $43.3B | $4.0B | $1.1B | $887M | $13.9B |
The exit and the buyer's return
| Exit | Amount | |
|---|---|---|
| Exit multiple | 13.3× EBITDA | today's trading multiple, before any premium |
| Enterprise value at exit | $53.5B | |
| − Debt left | $13.9B | |
| = Buyer's equity | $39.5B | |
| Money multiple | 1.31× | on $30.1B put in |
| Buyer's yearly return (IRR) | 5.6% |
Price against return
What the buyer makes at other premiums over today's $80.55; the IRR reaches 20% at $38.92 a share.
| Premium | Price a share | Buyer's IRR |
|---|---|---|
| 10% | $88.61 | 8.2% |
| 20% | $96.66 | 6.9% |
| 30% | $104.72 | 5.6% |
| 40% | $112.77 | 4.4% |
| 50% | $120.82 | 3.3% |
The figures used
| Figure | Amount | |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue, last 12 months | $33.1B | |
| EBITDA, last 12 months | $3.1B | 9.3% of revenue |
| Depreciation and amortization | $1.1B | |
| Capital spending | $1.2B | |
| Debt | $23.4B | |
| Cash | $162M | |
| Share price | $80.55 | on Nov 6, 2026 |
Fixed rules, the same as the interactive view's starting point: the shares are bought at today's price plus 30%, the company's debt is refinanced and fees take 2%. New debt is the least of 5.5× EBITDA, 65% of the price and the amount whose interest EBITDA covers 2 times, at 7.65% a year (SOFR 3.89% plus the high-yield B spread 3.26% plus 0.5%, rates of Oct 15, 2026). Revenue grows 8.0% in the first year — the company's own rate, held between −3% and +8% — fading to 3% by year 5; the EBITDA margin, depreciation and capital spending stay at today's share of revenue; working capital takes 10% of each year's added revenue; tax is 19% of profit after interest. Every dollar of free cash flow repays debt. After 5 years the buyer sells at today's multiple of EBITDA.
What a takeover could cost
Takeovers on record paid a median premium of 32.5% over the share price before the deal (the middle half 20% to 51.8%), according to the 1,437 merger proxies and tender-offer responses on EDGAR that state a premium. At the median, NRG Energy would cost about $106.73 a share, $22.6B for all its shares.
| Premium | % | Price a share | All shares |
|---|---|---|---|
| Low end (a quarter of deals paid less) | 20% | $96.66 | $20.5B |
| Median | 32.5% | $106.73 | $22.6B |
| High end (a quarter paid more) | 51.8% | $122.27 | $25.9B |
The odds, from history
Historically 1.6% of companies with its figures were bought within a year (0.32× the average). Its figures put it in decile 1 of 10 (10 = the most likely to be bought). The odds come from a model of every merger proxy, tender-offer response and going-private statement filed on EDGAR since 2011, set against each company's size, margins, debt, cash flow and growth the year before.
NRG Energy's latest quarter
NRG Energy, Q2 2026: revenue $7.5B (+11% year over year), operating margin 13.0%, net earnings $506M, operating cash flow $1.1B. The chart follows the revenue to costs, profit and cash.
Questions
Is NRG Energy being acquired?
No headline, 8-K or 13D about a sale is on file in the last year.
Could private equity buy NRG Energy?
A leveraged buyout at today's price plus 30% ($104.72 a share) would return about 6% a year to a private-equity buyer over 5 years; the most a buyer could pay for a 20% return is $38.92 a share (−52% against today's $80.55). It already carries 7.6× EBITDA in net debt (the model flags anything over 6×), so a buyer could add little debt of its own.
What would a takeover of NRG Energy cost?
Takeovers on record paid a median premium of 32.5% over the share price before the deal (the middle half 20% to 51.8%), according to the 1,437 merger proxies and tender-offer responses on EDGAR that state a premium. At the median, NRG Energy would cost about $106.73 a share, $22.6B for all its shares.
Updated Nov 8, 2026. Read automatically from SEC filings and public data; errors are possible. Not investment advice.