Filing Flows › Netscout Systems (NTCT) › Takeover & LBO
Is Netscout Systems (NTCT) a takeover target?
A leveraged buyout at today's price plus 30% ($52.90 a share) would return about 2% a year to a private-equity buyer over 5 years; no price, however low, gets a buyer to 20%. Historically 3.1% of companies with its figures were bought within a year (0.61× the average).
The buyout, step by step
| Entry | Amount | How |
|---|---|---|
| Offer price a share | $52.90 | today's $40.69 plus 30% |
| × shares | 74.6 million | |
| = Equity value | $3.9B | |
| + Debt refinanced | $0 | |
| − Cash | $629M | |
| = Enterprise value | $3.3B | 17.7× EBITDA of $187M |
| Fees | $66.3M | 2% of the price |
| New debt | $1.0B | 5.5× EBITDA at 7.65% a year; the limit that binds: 5.5× EBITDA |
| Buyer's own money | $2.4B | 70% of the cost |
5 years under the buyer
| Year | Revenue | EBITDA | Interest | Free cash flow | Debt left |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | $934M | $198M | $78.8M | $93.2M | $937M |
| Year 2 | $982M | $208M | $71.7M | $108M | $830M |
| Year 3 | $1.0B | $217M | $63.5M | $123M | $707M |
| Year 4 | $1.1B | $225M | $54.1M | $138M | $569M |
| Year 5 | $1.1B | $232M | $43.5M | $153M | $416M |
The exit and the buyer's return
| Exit | Amount | |
|---|---|---|
| Exit multiple | 12.8× EBITDA | today's trading multiple, before any premium |
| Enterprise value at exit | $3.0B | |
| − Debt left | $416M | |
| = Buyer's equity | $2.6B | |
| Money multiple | 1.09× | on $2.4B put in |
| Buyer's yearly return (IRR) | 1.8% |
Price against return
What the buyer makes at other premiums over today's $40.69.
| Premium | Price a share | Buyer's IRR |
|---|---|---|
| 10% | $44.76 | 8.2% |
| 20% | $48.83 | 4.7% |
| 30% | $52.90 | 1.8% |
| 40% | $56.97 | −0.7% |
| 50% | $61.03 | −2.9% |
The figures used
| Figure | Amount | |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue, last 12 months | $883M | |
| EBITDA, last 12 months | $187M | 21.2% of revenue |
| Depreciation and amortization | $56.5M | |
| Capital spending | $10.7M | |
| Debt | $0 | |
| Cash | $629M | |
| Share price | $40.69 | on Oct 9, 2026 |
Fixed rules, the same as the interactive view's starting point: the shares are bought at today's price plus 30%, the company's debt is refinanced and fees take 2%. New debt is the least of 5.5× EBITDA, 65% of the price and the amount whose interest EBITDA covers 2 times, at 7.65% a year (SOFR 3.89% plus the high-yield B spread 3.26% plus 0.5%, rates of Oct 15, 2026). Revenue grows 5.8% in the first year — the company's own rate, held between −3% and +8% — fading to 3% by year 5; the EBITDA margin, depreciation and capital spending stay at today's share of revenue; working capital takes 10% of each year's added revenue; tax is 16% of profit after interest. Every dollar of free cash flow repays debt. After 5 years the buyer sells at today's multiple of EBITDA.
What a takeover could cost
Takeovers in its sector paid a median premium of 30% over the share price before the deal (the middle half 12% to 31%), according to the 14 merger proxies and tender-offer responses on EDGAR that state a premium. At the median, Netscout Systems would cost about $52.90 a share, $3.9B for all its shares.
| Premium | % | Price a share | All shares |
|---|---|---|---|
| Low end (a quarter of deals paid less) | 12% | $45.57 | $3.4B |
| Median | 30% | $52.90 | $3.9B |
| High end (a quarter paid more) | 31% | $53.30 | $4.0B |
The odds, from history
Historically 3.1% of companies with its figures were bought within a year (0.61× the average). Its figures put it in decile 2 of 10 (10 = the most likely to be bought). The odds come from a model of every merger proxy, tender-offer response and going-private statement filed on EDGAR since 2011, set against each company's size, margins, debt, cash flow and growth the year before.
Netscout Systems' latest quarter
Netscout Systems, Q2 FY27: revenue $222M (+1% year over year), operating margin 16.9%, net earnings $34.4M, operating cash flow −$15.1M. The chart follows the revenue to costs, profit and cash.
Questions
Is Netscout Systems being acquired?
No headline, 8-K or 13D about a sale is on file in the last year.
Could private equity buy Netscout Systems?
A leveraged buyout at today's price plus 30% ($52.90 a share) would return about 2% a year to a private-equity buyer over 5 years; no price, however low, gets a buyer to 20%.
What would a takeover of Netscout Systems cost?
Takeovers in its sector paid a median premium of 30% over the share price before the deal (the middle half 12% to 31%), according to the 14 merger proxies and tender-offer responses on EDGAR that state a premium. At the median, Netscout Systems would cost about $52.90 a share, $3.9B for all its shares.
Updated Nov 8, 2026. Read automatically from SEC filings and public data; errors are possible. Not investment advice.