Filing Flows › Newell Brands (NWL) › Takeover & LBO
Is Newell Brands (NWL) a takeover target?
A leveraged buyout at today's price plus 30% ($7.03 a share) would return a loss of about 0% a year to a private-equity buyer over 5 years; no price, however low, gets a buyer to 20%. It already carries 11.6× EBITDA in net debt (the model flags anything over 6×), so a buyer could add little debt of its own. Historically 6.1% of companies with its figures were bought within a year (1.22× the average).
The buyout, step by step
| Entry | Amount | How |
|---|---|---|
| Offer price a share | $7.03 | today's $5.41 plus 30% |
| × shares | 425.9 million | |
| = Equity value | $3.0B | |
| + Debt refinanced | $4.8B | |
| − Cash | $371M | |
| = Enterprise value | $7.5B | 19.3× EBITDA of $386M |
| Fees | $149M | 2% of the price |
| New debt | $2.1B | 5.5× EBITDA at 7.65% a year; the limit that binds: 5.5× EBITDA |
| Buyer's own money | $5.5B | 72% of the cost |
5 years under the buyer
| Year | Revenue | EBITDA | Interest | Free cash flow | Debt left |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | $7.4B | $389M | $162M | $18.3M | $2.1B |
| Year 2 | $7.5B | $394M | $161M | $18.1M | $2.1B |
| Year 3 | $7.6B | $402M | $160M | $18.8M | $2.1B |
| Year 4 | $7.8B | $412M | $158M | $20.4M | $2.0B |
| Year 5 | $8.0B | $424M | $157M | $23.1M | $2.0B |
The exit and the buyer's return
| Exit | Amount | |
|---|---|---|
| Exit multiple | 17.5× EBITDA | today's trading multiple, before any premium |
| Enterprise value at exit | $7.4B | |
| − Debt left | $2.0B | |
| = Buyer's equity | $5.4B | |
| Money multiple | 0.99× | on $5.5B put in |
| Buyer's yearly return (IRR) | −0.3% |
Price against return
What the buyer makes at other premiums over today's $5.41.
| Premium | Price a share | Buyer's IRR |
|---|---|---|
| 10% | $5.95 | 1.5% |
| 20% | $6.49 | 0.6% |
| 30% | $7.03 | −0.3% |
| 40% | $7.57 | −1.1% |
| 50% | $8.12 | −1.9% |
The figures used
| Figure | Amount | |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue, last 12 months | $7.3B | |
| EBITDA, last 12 months | $386M | 5.3% of revenue |
| Depreciation and amortization | $314M | |
| Capital spending | $201M | |
| Debt | $4.8B | |
| Cash | $371M | |
| Share price | $5.41 | on Nov 6, 2026 |
Fixed rules, the same as the interactive view's starting point: the shares are bought at today's price plus 30%, the company's debt is refinanced and fees take 2%. New debt is the least of 5.5× EBITDA, 65% of the price and the amount whose interest EBITDA covers 2 times, at 7.65% a year (SOFR 3.89% plus the high-yield B spread 3.26% plus 0.5%, rates of Oct 15, 2026). Revenue grows 0.8% in the first year — the company's own rate, held between −3% and +8% — fading to 3% by year 5; the EBITDA margin, depreciation and capital spending stay at today's share of revenue; working capital takes 10% of each year's added revenue; tax is 21% of profit after interest. Every dollar of free cash flow repays debt. After 5 years the buyer sells at today's multiple of EBITDA.
What a takeover could cost
Takeovers on record paid a median premium of 32.5% over the share price before the deal (the middle half 20% to 51.8%), according to the 1,437 merger proxies and tender-offer responses on EDGAR that state a premium. At the median, Newell Brands would cost about $7.17 a share, $3.1B for all its shares.
| Premium | % | Price a share | All shares |
|---|---|---|---|
| Low end (a quarter of deals paid less) | 20% | $6.49 | $2.8B |
| Median | 32.5% | $7.17 | $3.1B |
| High end (a quarter paid more) | 51.8% | $8.21 | $3.5B |
The odds, from history
Historically 6.1% of companies with its figures were bought within a year (1.22× the average). Its figures put it in decile 8 of 10 (10 = the most likely to be bought). The odds come from a model of every merger proxy, tender-offer response and going-private statement filed on EDGAR since 2011, set against each company's size, margins, debt, cash flow and growth the year before.
Newell Brands' latest quarter
Newell Brands, Q3 2026: revenue $1.9B (+4% year over year), operating margin 1.4%, net loss $81.0M, operating cash flow $297M. The chart follows the revenue to costs, profit and cash.
Questions
Is Newell Brands being acquired?
No headline, 8-K or 13D about a sale is on file in the last year.
Could private equity buy Newell Brands?
A leveraged buyout at today's price plus 30% ($7.03 a share) would return a loss of about 0% a year to a private-equity buyer over 5 years; no price, however low, gets a buyer to 20%. It already carries 11.6× EBITDA in net debt (the model flags anything over 6×), so a buyer could add little debt of its own.
What would a takeover of Newell Brands cost?
Takeovers on record paid a median premium of 32.5% over the share price before the deal (the middle half 20% to 51.8%), according to the 1,437 merger proxies and tender-offer responses on EDGAR that state a premium. At the median, Newell Brands would cost about $7.17 a share, $3.1B for all its shares.
Updated Nov 8, 2026. Read automatically from SEC filings and public data; errors are possible. Not investment advice.