Filing Flows › Owens Corning (OC) › Takeover & LBO
Is Owens Corning (OC) a takeover target?
A leveraged buyout at today's price plus 30% ($159.70 a share) would return a loss of about 10% a year to a private-equity buyer over 5 years; the most a buyer could pay for a 20% return is $39.53 a share (−68% against today's $122.85). Historically 3.4% of companies with its figures were bought within a year (0.67× the average).
The buyout, step by step
| Entry | Amount | How |
|---|---|---|
| Offer price a share | $159.70 | today's $122.85 plus 30% |
| × shares | 78.7 million | |
| = Equity value | $12.6B | |
| + Debt refinanced | $4.9B | |
| − Cash | $179M | |
| + Other claims | $38.0M | preferred stock, minority interests |
| = Enterprise value | $17.3B | 18.7× EBITDA of $928M |
| Fees | $346M | 2% of the price |
| New debt | $5.1B | 5.5× EBITDA at 7.65% a year; the limit that binds: 5.5× EBITDA |
| Buyer's own money | $12.6B | 71% of the cost |
5 years under the buyer
| Year | Revenue | EBITDA | Interest | Free cash flow | Debt left |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | $9.4B | $900M | $390M | −$344M | $5.4B |
| Year 2 | $9.2B | $887M | $417M | −$371M | $5.8B |
| Year 3 | $9.2B | $887M | $445M | −$399M | $6.2B |
| Year 4 | $9.4B | $900M | $476M | −$443M | $6.7B |
| Year 5 | $9.6B | $927M | $510M | −$490M | $7.2B |
The exit and the buyer's return
| Exit | Amount | |
|---|---|---|
| Exit multiple | 15.5× EBITDA | today's trading multiple, before any premium |
| Enterprise value at exit | $14.4B | |
| − Debt left | $7.2B | |
| = Buyer's equity | $7.3B | |
| Money multiple | 0.58× | on $12.6B put in |
| Buyer's yearly return (IRR) | −10.4% |
Price against return
What the buyer makes at other premiums over today's $122.85; the IRR reaches 20% at $39.53 a share.
| Premium | Price a share | Buyer's IRR |
|---|---|---|
| 10% | $135.13 | −7.3% |
| 20% | $147.42 | −8.9% |
| 30% | $159.70 | −10.4% |
| 40% | $171.99 | −11.8% |
| 50% | $184.27 | −13.0% |
The figures used
| Figure | Amount | |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue, last 12 months | $9.7B | |
| EBITDA, last 12 months | $928M | 9.6% of revenue |
| Depreciation and amortization | $703M | |
| Capital spending | $880M | |
| Debt | $4.9B | |
| Cash | $179M | |
| Share price | $122.85 | on Nov 6, 2026 |
Fixed rules, the same as the interactive view's starting point: the shares are bought at today's price plus 30%, the company's debt is refinanced and fees take 2%. New debt is the least of 5.5× EBITDA, 65% of the price and the amount whose interest EBITDA covers 2 times, at 7.65% a year (SOFR 3.89% plus the high-yield B spread 3.26% plus 0.5%, rates of Oct 15, 2026). Revenue grows -3.0% in the first year — the company's own rate, held between −3% and +8% — fading to 3% by year 5; the EBITDA margin, depreciation and capital spending stay at today's share of revenue; working capital takes 10% of each year's added revenue; tax is 21% of profit after interest. Every dollar of free cash flow repays debt. After 5 years the buyer sells at today's multiple of EBITDA.
What a takeover could cost
Takeovers on record paid a median premium of 32.5% over the share price before the deal (the middle half 20% to 51.8%), according to the 1,437 merger proxies and tender-offer responses on EDGAR that state a premium. At the median, Owens Corning would cost about $162.78 a share, $12.8B for all its shares.
| Premium | % | Price a share | All shares |
|---|---|---|---|
| Low end (a quarter of deals paid less) | 20% | $147.42 | $11.6B |
| Median | 32.5% | $162.78 | $12.8B |
| High end (a quarter paid more) | 51.8% | $186.49 | $14.7B |
The odds, from history
Historically 3.4% of companies with its figures were bought within a year (0.67× the average). Its figures put it in decile 3 of 10 (10 = the most likely to be bought). The odds come from a model of every merger proxy, tender-offer response and going-private statement filed on EDGAR since 2011, set against each company's size, margins, debt, cash flow and growth the year before.
Owens Corning's latest quarter
Owens Corning, Q3 2026: revenue $2.5B (-7% year over year), operating margin -6.1%, net loss $250M, operating cash flow $813M. The chart follows the revenue to costs, profit and cash.
Questions
Is Owens Corning being acquired?
No headline, 8-K or 13D about a sale is on file in the last year.
Could private equity buy Owens Corning?
A leveraged buyout at today's price plus 30% ($159.70 a share) would return a loss of about 10% a year to a private-equity buyer over 5 years; the most a buyer could pay for a 20% return is $39.53 a share (−68% against today's $122.85).
What would a takeover of Owens Corning cost?
Takeovers on record paid a median premium of 32.5% over the share price before the deal (the middle half 20% to 51.8%), according to the 1,437 merger proxies and tender-offer responses on EDGAR that state a premium. At the median, Owens Corning would cost about $162.78 a share, $12.8B for all its shares.
Updated Nov 8, 2026. Read automatically from SEC filings and public data; errors are possible. Not investment advice.