Filing Flows › ONEOK (OKE) › Takeover & LBO
Is ONEOK (OKE) a takeover target?
A leveraged buyout at today's price plus 30% ($112.12 a share) would return about 4% a year to a private-equity buyer over 5 years; the most a buyer could pay for a 20% return is $58.19 a share (−33% against today's $86.25). At $108.4B it would be larger than any buyout on record (the model flags anything over $60 billion), so this is a thought experiment more than a prospect. Historically 2.3% of companies with its figures were bought within a year (0.46× the average).
The buyout, step by step
| Entry | Amount | How |
|---|---|---|
| Offer price a share | $112.12 | today's $86.25 plus 30% |
| × shares | 632.6 million | |
| = Equity value | $70.9B | |
| + Debt refinanced | $28.5B | |
| − Cash | $186M | |
| + Other claims | $9.1B | preferred stock, minority interests |
| = Enterprise value | $108.4B | 14.1× EBITDA of $7.7B |
| Fees | $2.2B | 2% of the price |
| New debt | $42.2B | 5.5× EBITDA at 7.65% a year; the limit that binds: 5.5× EBITDA |
| Buyer's own money | $68.4B | 62% of the cost |
5 years under the buyer
| Year | Revenue | EBITDA | Interest | Free cash flow | Debt left |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | $46.6B | $8.3B | $3.2B | $508M | $41.7B |
| Year 2 | $49.8B | $8.8B | $3.2B | $812M | $40.9B |
| Year 3 | $52.5B | $9.3B | $3.1B | $1.1B | $39.7B |
| Year 4 | $54.8B | $9.7B | $3.0B | $1.4B | $38.3B |
| Year 5 | $56.4B | $10.0B | $2.9B | $1.7B | $36.7B |
The exit and the buyer's return
| Exit | Amount | |
|---|---|---|
| Exit multiple | 12.0× EBITDA | today's trading multiple, before any premium |
| Enterprise value at exit | $120.2B | |
| − Debt left | $36.7B | |
| = Buyer's equity | $83.5B | |
| Money multiple | 1.22× | on $68.4B put in |
| Buyer's yearly return (IRR) | 4.1% |
Price against return
What the buyer makes at other premiums over today's $86.25; the IRR reaches 20% at $58.19 a share.
| Premium | Price a share | Buyer's IRR |
|---|---|---|
| 10% | $94.88 | 7.8% |
| 20% | $103.50 | 5.9% |
| 30% | $112.12 | 4.1% |
| 40% | $120.75 | 2.5% |
| 50% | $129.38 | 1.0% |
The figures used
| Figure | Amount | |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue, last 12 months | $43.2B | |
| EBITDA, last 12 months | $7.7B | 17.8% of revenue |
| Depreciation and amortization | $1.5B | |
| Capital spending | $3.4B | |
| Debt | $28.5B | |
| Cash | $186M | |
| Share price | $86.25 | on Nov 6, 2026 |
Fixed rules, the same as the interactive view's starting point: the shares are bought at today's price plus 30%, the company's debt is refinanced and fees take 2%. New debt is the least of 5.5× EBITDA, 65% of the price and the amount whose interest EBITDA covers 2 times, at 7.65% a year (SOFR 3.89% plus the high-yield B spread 3.26% plus 0.5%, rates of Oct 15, 2026). Revenue grows 8.0% in the first year — the company's own rate, held between −3% and +8% — fading to 3% by year 5; the EBITDA margin, depreciation and capital spending stay at today's share of revenue; working capital takes 10% of each year's added revenue; tax is 16% of profit after interest. Every dollar of free cash flow repays debt. After 5 years the buyer sells at today's multiple of EBITDA.
What a takeover could cost
Takeovers on record paid a median premium of 32.5% over the share price before the deal (the middle half 20% to 51.8%), according to the 1,437 merger proxies and tender-offer responses on EDGAR that state a premium. At the median, ONEOK would cost about $114.28 a share, $72.3B for all its shares.
| Premium | % | Price a share | All shares |
|---|---|---|---|
| Low end (a quarter of deals paid less) | 20% | $103.50 | $65.5B |
| Median | 32.5% | $114.28 | $72.3B |
| High end (a quarter paid more) | 51.8% | $130.93 | $82.8B |
The odds, from history
Historically 2.3% of companies with its figures were bought within a year (0.46× the average). Its figures put it in decile 1 of 10 (10 = the most likely to be bought). The odds come from a model of every merger proxy, tender-offer response and going-private statement filed on EDGAR since 2011, set against each company's size, margins, debt, cash flow and growth the year before.
ONEOK's latest quarter
ONEOK, Q3 2026: revenue $12.5B (+44% year over year), operating margin 12.6%, net earnings $1.4B, operating cash flow $1.4B. The chart follows the revenue to costs, profit and cash.
Questions
Is ONEOK being acquired?
No headline, 8-K or 13D about a sale is on file in the last year.
Could private equity buy ONEOK?
A leveraged buyout at today's price plus 30% ($112.12 a share) would return about 4% a year to a private-equity buyer over 5 years; the most a buyer could pay for a 20% return is $58.19 a share (−33% against today's $86.25). At $108.4B it would be larger than any buyout on record (the model flags anything over $60 billion), so this is a thought experiment more than a prospect.
What would a takeover of ONEOK cost?
Takeovers on record paid a median premium of 32.5% over the share price before the deal (the middle half 20% to 51.8%), according to the 1,437 merger proxies and tender-offer responses on EDGAR that state a premium. At the median, ONEOK would cost about $114.28 a share, $72.3B for all its shares.
Updated Nov 8, 2026. Read automatically from SEC filings and public data; errors are possible. Not investment advice.