Filing Flows › BeOne Medicines (ONC) › Takeover & LBO
Is BeOne Medicines (ONC) a takeover target?
A leveraged buyout at today's price plus 30% ($532.10 a share) would return a loss of about 0% a year to a private-equity buyer over 5 years; the most a buyer could pay for a 20% return is $216.06 a share (−47% against today's $409.31). At $806.5B it would be larger than any buyout on record (the model flags anything over $60 billion), so this is a thought experiment more than a prospect. Historically 1.8% of companies with its figures were bought within a year (0.35× the average).
The buyout, step by step
| Entry | Amount | How |
|---|---|---|
| Offer price a share | $532.10 | today's $409.31 plus 30% |
| × shares | 1,525.0 million | |
| = Equity value | $811.4B | |
| + Debt refinanced | $866M | |
| − Cash | $5.8B | |
| = Enterprise value | $806.5B | 594.2× EBITDA of $1.4B |
| Fees | $16.1B | 2% of the price |
| New debt | $7.5B | 5.5× EBITDA at 7.65% a year; the limit that binds: 5.5× EBITDA |
| Buyer's own money | $815.2B | 99% of the cost |
5 years under the buyer
| Year | Revenue | EBITDA | Interest | Free cash flow | Debt left |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | $7.1B | $1.5B | $571M | $556M | $6.9B |
| Year 2 | $7.6B | $1.6B | $529M | $667M | $6.2B |
| Year 3 | $8.0B | $1.7B | $477M | $778M | $5.5B |
| Year 4 | $8.4B | $1.7B | $418M | $885M | $4.6B |
| Year 5 | $8.6B | $1.8B | $350M | $986M | $3.6B |
The exit and the buyer's return
| Exit | Amount | |
|---|---|---|
| Exit multiple | 456.3× EBITDA | today's trading multiple, before any premium |
| Enterprise value at exit | $808.8B | |
| − Debt left | $3.6B | |
| = Buyer's equity | $805.2B | |
| Money multiple | 0.99× | on $815.2B put in |
| Buyer's yearly return (IRR) | −0.2% |
Price against return
What the buyer makes at other premiums over today's $409.31; the IRR reaches 20% at $216.06 a share.
| Premium | Price a share | Buyer's IRR |
|---|---|---|
| 10% | $450.24 | 3.2% |
| 20% | $491.17 | 1.4% |
| 30% | $532.10 | −0.2% |
| 40% | $573.03 | −1.7% |
| 50% | $613.97 | −3.1% |
The figures used
| Figure | Amount | |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue, last 12 months | $6.6B | |
| EBITDA, last 12 months | $1.4B | 20.5% of revenue |
| Depreciation and amortization | $179M | |
| Capital spending | $141M | |
| Debt | $866M | |
| Cash | $5.8B | |
| Share price | $409.31 | on Nov 6, 2026 |
Fixed rules, the same as the interactive view's starting point: the shares are bought at today's price plus 30%, the company's debt is refinanced and fees take 2%. New debt is the least of 5.5× EBITDA, 65% of the price and the amount whose interest EBITDA covers 2 times, at 7.65% a year (SOFR 3.89% plus the high-yield B spread 3.26% plus 0.5%, rates of Oct 15, 2026). Revenue grows 8.0% in the first year — the company's own rate, held between −3% and +8% — fading to 3% by year 5; the EBITDA margin, depreciation and capital spending stay at today's share of revenue; working capital takes 10% of each year's added revenue; tax is 19% of profit after interest. Every dollar of free cash flow repays debt. After 5 years the buyer sells at today's multiple of EBITDA.
What a takeover could cost
Takeovers in its sector paid a median premium of 35% over the share price before the deal (the middle half 22% to 45%), according to the 15 merger proxies and tender-offer responses on EDGAR that state a premium. At the median, BeOne Medicines would cost about $552.57 a share, $842.6B for all its shares.
| Premium | % | Price a share | All shares |
|---|---|---|---|
| Low end (a quarter of deals paid less) | 22% | $499.36 | $761.5B |
| Median | 35% | $552.57 | $842.6B |
| High end (a quarter paid more) | 45% | $593.50 | $905.1B |
The odds, from history
Historically 1.8% of companies with its figures were bought within a year (0.35× the average). Its figures put it in decile 1 of 10 (10 = the most likely to be bought). The odds come from a model of every merger proxy, tender-offer response and going-private statement filed on EDGAR since 2011, set against each company's size, margins, debt, cash flow and growth the year before.
BeOne Medicines' latest quarter
BeOne Medicines, Q3 2026: revenue $1.9B (+34% year over year), operating margin 22.2%, net earnings $385M, operating cash flow $509M. The chart follows the revenue to costs, profit and cash.
Questions
Is BeOne Medicines being acquired?
No headline, 8-K or 13D about a sale is on file in the last year.
Could private equity buy BeOne Medicines?
A leveraged buyout at today's price plus 30% ($532.10 a share) would return a loss of about 0% a year to a private-equity buyer over 5 years; the most a buyer could pay for a 20% return is $216.06 a share (−47% against today's $409.31). At $806.5B it would be larger than any buyout on record (the model flags anything over $60 billion), so this is a thought experiment more than a prospect.
What would a takeover of BeOne Medicines cost?
Takeovers in its sector paid a median premium of 35% over the share price before the deal (the middle half 22% to 45%), according to the 15 merger proxies and tender-offer responses on EDGAR that state a premium. At the median, BeOne Medicines would cost about $552.57 a share, $842.6B for all its shares.
Updated Nov 8, 2026. Read automatically from SEC filings and public data; errors are possible. Not investment advice.