Filing Flows › Openlane (OPLN) › Takeover & LBO
Is Openlane (OPLN) a takeover target?
A leveraged buyout at today's price plus 30% ($50.71 a share) would return about 4% a year to a private-equity buyer over 5 years; the most a buyer could pay for a 20% return is $30.77 a share (−21% against today's $39.01). Historically 7.0% of companies with its figures were bought within a year (1.4× the average).
The buyout, step by step
| Entry | Amount | How |
|---|---|---|
| Offer price a share | $50.71 | today's $39.01 plus 30% |
| × shares | 125.4 million | |
| = Equity value | $6.4B | |
| + Debt refinanced | $550M | |
| − Cash | $245M | |
| = Enterprise value | $6.7B | 19.4× EBITDA of $344M |
| Fees | $133M | 2% of the price |
| New debt | $1.9B | 5.5× EBITDA at 7.65% a year; the limit that binds: 5.5× EBITDA |
| Buyer's own money | $4.9B | 72% of the cost |
5 years under the buyer
| Year | Revenue | EBITDA | Interest | Free cash flow | Debt left |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | $2.3B | $372M | $145M | $134M | $1.8B |
| Year 2 | $2.5B | $397M | $135M | $164M | $1.6B |
| Year 3 | $2.6B | $419M | $122M | $193M | $1.4B |
| Year 4 | $2.7B | $436M | $107M | $222M | $1.2B |
| Year 5 | $2.8B | $450M | $90.2M | $250M | $930M |
The exit and the buyer's return
| Exit | Amount | |
|---|---|---|
| Exit multiple | 15.1× EBITDA | today's trading multiple, before any premium |
| Enterprise value at exit | $6.8B | |
| − Debt left | $930M | |
| = Buyer's equity | $5.9B | |
| Money multiple | 1.19× | on $4.9B put in |
| Buyer's yearly return (IRR) | 3.6% |
Price against return
What the buyer makes at other premiums over today's $39.01; the IRR reaches 20% at $30.77 a share.
| Premium | Price a share | Buyer's IRR |
|---|---|---|
| 10% | $42.91 | 8.4% |
| 20% | $46.81 | 5.9% |
| 30% | $50.71 | 3.6% |
| 40% | $54.61 | 1.6% |
| 50% | $58.52 | −0.2% |
The figures used
| Figure | Amount | |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue, last 12 months | $2.1B | |
| EBITDA, last 12 months | $344M | 16.1% of revenue |
| Depreciation and amortization | $90.0M | |
| Capital spending | $55.4M | |
| Debt | $550M | |
| Cash | $245M | |
| Share price | $39.01 | on Oct 30, 2026 |
Fixed rules, the same as the interactive view's starting point: the shares are bought at today's price plus 30%, the company's debt is refinanced and fees take 2%. New debt is the least of 5.5× EBITDA, 65% of the price and the amount whose interest EBITDA covers 2 times, at 7.65% a year (SOFR 3.89% plus the high-yield B spread 3.26% plus 0.5%, rates of Oct 15, 2026). Revenue grows 8.0% in the first year — the company's own rate, held between −3% and +8% — fading to 3% by year 5; the EBITDA margin, depreciation and capital spending stay at today's share of revenue; working capital takes 10% of each year's added revenue; tax is 12% of profit after interest. Every dollar of free cash flow repays debt. After 5 years the buyer sells at today's multiple of EBITDA.
What a takeover could cost
Takeovers on record paid a median premium of 32.5% over the share price before the deal (the middle half 20% to 51.8%), according to the 1,437 merger proxies and tender-offer responses on EDGAR that state a premium. At the median, Openlane would cost about $51.69 a share, $6.5B for all its shares.
| Premium | % | Price a share | All shares |
|---|---|---|---|
| Low end (a quarter of deals paid less) | 20% | $46.81 | $5.9B |
| Median | 32.5% | $51.69 | $6.5B |
| High end (a quarter paid more) | 51.8% | $59.22 | $7.4B |
The odds, from history
Historically 7.0% of companies with its figures were bought within a year (1.4× the average). Its figures put it in decile 9 of 10 (10 = the most likely to be bought). The odds come from a model of every merger proxy, tender-offer response and going-private statement filed on EDGAR since 2011, set against each company's size, margins, debt, cash flow and growth the year before.
Openlane's latest quarter
Openlane, Q3 2026: revenue $561M (+13% year over year), operating margin 12.5%, net earnings $44.7M, operating cash flow $97.1M. The chart follows the revenue to costs, profit and cash.
Questions
Is Openlane being acquired?
No headline, 8-K or 13D about a sale is on file in the last year.
Could private equity buy Openlane?
A leveraged buyout at today's price plus 30% ($50.71 a share) would return about 4% a year to a private-equity buyer over 5 years; the most a buyer could pay for a 20% return is $30.77 a share (−21% against today's $39.01).
What would a takeover of Openlane cost?
Takeovers on record paid a median premium of 32.5% over the share price before the deal (the middle half 20% to 51.8%), according to the 1,437 merger proxies and tender-offer responses on EDGAR that state a premium. At the median, Openlane would cost about $51.69 a share, $6.5B for all its shares.
Updated Nov 8, 2026. Read automatically from SEC filings and public data; errors are possible. Not investment advice.