Filing Flows › Oshkosh (OSK) › Takeover & LBO
Is Oshkosh (OSK) a takeover target?
A leveraged buyout at today's price plus 30% ($175.10 a share) would return about 3% a year to a private-equity buyer over 5 years; the most a buyer could pay for a 20% return is $121.07 a share (−10% against today's $134.69). Historically 1.7% of companies with its figures were bought within a year (0.34× the average).
The buyout, step by step
| Entry | Amount | How |
|---|---|---|
| Offer price a share | $175.10 | today's $134.69 plus 30% |
| × shares | 62.2 million | |
| = Equity value | $10.9B | |
| + Debt refinanced | $1.1B | |
| − Cash | $558M | |
| = Enterprise value | $11.4B | 11.7× EBITDA of $978M |
| Fees | $229M | 2% of the price |
| New debt | $5.4B | 5.5× EBITDA at 7.65% a year; the limit that binds: 5.5× EBITDA |
| Buyer's own money | $6.3B | 54% of the cost |
5 years under the buyer
| Year | Revenue | EBITDA | Interest | Free cash flow | Debt left |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | $11.2B | $1.0B | $412M | $304M | $5.1B |
| Year 2 | $11.6B | $1.1B | $388M | $350M | $4.7B |
| Year 3 | $12.1B | $1.1B | $362M | $398M | $4.3B |
| Year 4 | $12.5B | $1.1B | $331M | $447M | $3.9B |
| Year 5 | $12.8B | $1.2B | $297M | $499M | $3.4B |
The exit and the buyer's return
| Exit | Amount | |
|---|---|---|
| Exit multiple | 9.1× EBITDA | today's trading multiple, before any premium |
| Enterprise value at exit | $10.6B | |
| − Debt left | $3.4B | |
| = Buyer's equity | $7.3B | |
| Money multiple | 1.15× | on $6.3B put in |
| Buyer's yearly return (IRR) | 2.9% |
Price against return
What the buyer makes at other premiums over today's $134.69; the IRR reaches 20% at $121.07 a share.
| Premium | Price a share | Buyer's IRR |
|---|---|---|
| 10% | $148.16 | 9.7% |
| 20% | $161.63 | 6.0% |
| 30% | $175.10 | 2.9% |
| 40% | $188.57 | 0.3% |
| 50% | $202.03 | −1.9% |
The figures used
| Figure | Amount | |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue, last 12 months | $10.8B | |
| EBITDA, last 12 months | $978M | 9.1% of revenue |
| Depreciation and amortization | $244M | |
| Capital spending | $175M | |
| Debt | $1.1B | |
| Cash | $558M | |
| Share price | $134.69 | on Nov 6, 2026 |
Fixed rules, the same as the interactive view's starting point: the shares are bought at today's price plus 30%, the company's debt is refinanced and fees take 2%. New debt is the least of 5.5× EBITDA, 65% of the price and the amount whose interest EBITDA covers 2 times, at 7.65% a year (SOFR 3.89% plus the high-yield B spread 3.26% plus 0.5%, rates of Oct 15, 2026). Revenue grows 4.2% in the first year — the company's own rate, held between −3% and +8% — fading to 3% by year 5; the EBITDA margin, depreciation and capital spending stay at today's share of revenue; working capital takes 10% of each year's added revenue; tax is 21% of profit after interest. Every dollar of free cash flow repays debt. After 5 years the buyer sells at today's multiple of EBITDA.
What a takeover could cost
Takeovers on record paid a median premium of 32.5% over the share price before the deal (the middle half 20% to 51.8%), according to the 1,437 merger proxies and tender-offer responses on EDGAR that state a premium. At the median, Oshkosh would cost about $178.46 a share, $11.1B for all its shares.
| Premium | % | Price a share | All shares |
|---|---|---|---|
| Low end (a quarter of deals paid less) | 20% | $161.63 | $10.1B |
| Median | 32.5% | $178.46 | $11.1B |
| High end (a quarter paid more) | 51.8% | $204.46 | $12.7B |
The odds, from history
Historically 1.7% of companies with its figures were bought within a year (0.34× the average). Its figures put it in decile 1 of 10 (10 = the most likely to be bought). The odds come from a model of every merger proxy, tender-offer response and going-private statement filed on EDGAR since 2011, set against each company's size, margins, debt, cash flow and growth the year before.
Oshkosh's latest quarter
Oshkosh, Q3 2026: revenue $2.8B (+6% year over year), operating margin 6.9%, net earnings $138M, operating cash flow $320M. The chart follows the revenue to costs, profit and cash.
Questions
Is Oshkosh being acquired?
No headline, 8-K or 13D about a sale is on file in the last year.
Could private equity buy Oshkosh?
A leveraged buyout at today's price plus 30% ($175.10 a share) would return about 3% a year to a private-equity buyer over 5 years; the most a buyer could pay for a 20% return is $121.07 a share (−10% against today's $134.69).
What would a takeover of Oshkosh cost?
Takeovers on record paid a median premium of 32.5% over the share price before the deal (the middle half 20% to 51.8%), according to the 1,437 merger proxies and tender-offer responses on EDGAR that state a premium. At the median, Oshkosh would cost about $178.46 a share, $11.1B for all its shares.
Updated Nov 8, 2026. Read automatically from SEC filings and public data; errors are possible. Not investment advice.