Filing Flows › Otis Worldwide (OTIS) › Takeover & LBO
Is Otis Worldwide (OTIS) a takeover target?
A leveraged buyout at today's price plus 30% ($103.34 a share) would return about 3% a year to a private-equity buyer over 5 years; the most a buyer could pay for a 20% return is $56.52 a share (−29% against today's $79.49). Historically 3.1% of companies with its figures were bought within a year (0.61× the average).
The buyout, step by step
| Entry | Amount | How |
|---|---|---|
| Offer price a share | $103.34 | today's $79.49 plus 30% |
| × shares | 381.9 million | |
| = Equity value | $39.5B | |
| + Debt refinanced | $8.3B | |
| − Cash | $866M | |
| + Other claims | $166M | preferred stock, minority interests |
| = Enterprise value | $47.0B | 18.9× EBITDA of $2.5B |
| Fees | $941M | 2% of the price |
| New debt | $13.7B | 5.5× EBITDA at 7.65% a year; the limit that binds: 5.5× EBITDA |
| Buyer's own money | $34.3B | 71% of the cost |
5 years under the buyer
| Year | Revenue | EBITDA | Interest | Free cash flow | Debt left |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | $16.0B | $2.6B | $1.0B | $1.0B | $12.7B |
| Year 2 | $16.8B | $2.8B | $972M | $1.2B | $11.5B |
| Year 3 | $17.6B | $2.9B | $883M | $1.3B | $10.2B |
| Year 4 | $18.2B | $3.0B | $782M | $1.5B | $8.7B |
| Year 5 | $18.8B | $3.1B | $668M | $1.6B | $7.1B |
The exit and the buyer's return
| Exit | Amount | |
|---|---|---|
| Exit multiple | 15.2× EBITDA | today's trading multiple, before any premium |
| Enterprise value at exit | $47.0B | |
| − Debt left | $7.1B | |
| = Buyer's equity | $39.9B | |
| Money multiple | 1.16× | on $34.3B put in |
| Buyer's yearly return (IRR) | 3.1% |
Price against return
What the buyer makes at other premiums over today's $79.49; the IRR reaches 20% at $56.52 a share.
| Premium | Price a share | Buyer's IRR |
|---|---|---|
| 10% | $87.44 | 7.3% |
| 20% | $95.39 | 5.1% |
| 30% | $103.34 | 3.1% |
| 40% | $111.29 | 1.3% |
| 50% | $119.23 | −0.3% |
The figures used
| Figure | Amount | |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue, last 12 months | $15.1B | |
| EBITDA, last 12 months | $2.5B | 16.5% of revenue |
| Depreciation and amortization | $169M | |
| Capital spending | $161M | |
| Debt | $8.3B | |
| Cash | $866M | |
| Share price | $79.49 | on Nov 6, 2026 |
Fixed rules, the same as the interactive view's starting point: the shares are bought at today's price plus 30%, the company's debt is refinanced and fees take 2%. New debt is the least of 5.5× EBITDA, 65% of the price and the amount whose interest EBITDA covers 2 times, at 7.65% a year (SOFR 3.89% plus the high-yield B spread 3.26% plus 0.5%, rates of Oct 15, 2026). Revenue grows 5.8% in the first year — the company's own rate, held between −3% and +8% — fading to 3% by year 5; the EBITDA margin, depreciation and capital spending stay at today's share of revenue; working capital takes 10% of each year's added revenue; tax is 23% of profit after interest. Every dollar of free cash flow repays debt. After 5 years the buyer sells at today's multiple of EBITDA.
What a takeover could cost
Takeovers in its sector paid a median premium of 40% over the share price before the deal (the middle half 14.7% to 60.2%), according to the 20 merger proxies and tender-offer responses on EDGAR that state a premium. At the median, Otis Worldwide would cost about $111.29 a share, $42.5B for all its shares.
| Premium | % | Price a share | All shares |
|---|---|---|---|
| Low end (a quarter of deals paid less) | 14.7% | $91.18 | $34.8B |
| Median | 40% | $111.29 | $42.5B |
| High end (a quarter paid more) | 60.2% | $127.34 | $48.6B |
The odds, from history
Historically 3.1% of companies with its figures were bought within a year (0.61× the average). Its figures put it in decile 2 of 10 (10 = the most likely to be bought). The odds come from a model of every merger proxy, tender-offer response and going-private statement filed on EDGAR since 2011, set against each company's size, margins, debt, cash flow and growth the year before.
Otis Worldwide's latest quarter
Otis Worldwide, Q3 2026: revenue $3.9B (+6% year over year), operating margin 15.8%, net earnings $414M, operating cash flow $337M. The chart follows the revenue to costs, profit and cash.
Questions
Is Otis Worldwide being acquired?
No headline, 8-K or 13D about a sale is on file in the last year.
Could private equity buy Otis Worldwide?
A leveraged buyout at today's price plus 30% ($103.34 a share) would return about 3% a year to a private-equity buyer over 5 years; the most a buyer could pay for a 20% return is $56.52 a share (−29% against today's $79.49).
What would a takeover of Otis Worldwide cost?
Takeovers in its sector paid a median premium of 40% over the share price before the deal (the middle half 14.7% to 60.2%), according to the 20 merger proxies and tender-offer responses on EDGAR that state a premium. At the median, Otis Worldwide would cost about $111.29 a share, $42.5B for all its shares.
Updated Nov 8, 2026. Read automatically from SEC filings and public data; errors are possible. Not investment advice.