Filing Flows › Otter Tail (OTTR) › Takeover & LBO
Is Otter Tail (OTTR) a takeover target?
A leveraged buyout at today's price plus 30% ($117.45 a share) would return a loss of about 20% a year to a private-equity buyer over 5 years; the most a buyer could pay for a 20% return is $31.07 a share (−66% against today's $90.35). Historically 5.8% of companies with its figures were bought within a year (1.16× the average).
The buyout, step by step
| Entry | Amount | How |
|---|---|---|
| Offer price a share | $117.45 | today's $90.35 plus 30% |
| × shares | 42.0 million | |
| = Equity value | $4.9B | |
| + Debt refinanced | $1.2B | |
| − Cash | $334M | |
| = Enterprise value | $5.8B | 16.7× EBITDA of $345M |
| Fees | $116M | 2% of the price |
| New debt | $1.9B | 5.5× EBITDA at 7.65% a year; the limit that binds: 5.5× EBITDA |
| Buyer's own money | $4.0B | 68% of the cost |
5 years under the buyer
| Year | Revenue | EBITDA | Interest | Free cash flow | Debt left |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | $1.3B | $345M | $145M | −$305M | $2.2B |
| Year 2 | $1.3B | $347M | $169M | −$325M | $2.5B |
| Year 3 | $1.3B | $352M | $194M | −$349M | $2.9B |
| Year 4 | $1.4B | $359M | $220M | −$375M | $3.3B |
| Year 5 | $1.4B | $370M | $249M | −$406M | $3.7B |
The exit and the buyer's return
| Exit | Amount | |
|---|---|---|
| Exit multiple | 13.4× EBITDA | today's trading multiple, before any premium |
| Enterprise value at exit | $5.0B | |
| − Debt left | $3.7B | |
| = Buyer's equity | $1.3B | |
| Money multiple | 0.33× | on $4.0B put in |
| Buyer's yearly return (IRR) | −19.9% |
Price against return
What the buyer makes at other premiums over today's $90.35; the IRR reaches 20% at $31.07 a share.
| Premium | Price a share | Buyer's IRR |
|---|---|---|
| 10% | $99.39 | −16.4% |
| 20% | $108.42 | −18.3% |
| 30% | $117.45 | −19.9% |
| 40% | $126.49 | −21.4% |
| 50% | $135.52 | −22.7% |
The figures used
| Figure | Amount | |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue, last 12 months | $1.3B | |
| EBITDA, last 12 months | $345M | 26.4% of revenue |
| Depreciation and amortization | $120M | |
| Capital spending | $489M | |
| Debt | $1.2B | |
| Cash | $334M | |
| Share price | $90.35 | on Oct 30, 2026 |
Fixed rules, the same as the interactive view's starting point: the shares are bought at today's price plus 30%, the company's debt is refinanced and fees take 2%. New debt is the least of 5.5× EBITDA, 65% of the price and the amount whose interest EBITDA covers 2 times, at 7.65% a year (SOFR 3.89% plus the high-yield B spread 3.26% plus 0.5%, rates of Oct 15, 2026). Revenue grows -0.2% in the first year — the company's own rate, held between −3% and +8% — fading to 3% by year 5; the EBITDA margin, depreciation and capital spending stay at today's share of revenue; working capital takes 10% of each year's added revenue; tax is 21% of profit after interest. Every dollar of free cash flow repays debt. After 5 years the buyer sells at today's multiple of EBITDA.
What a takeover could cost
Takeovers on record paid a median premium of 32.5% over the share price before the deal (the middle half 20% to 51.8%), according to the 1,437 merger proxies and tender-offer responses on EDGAR that state a premium. At the median, Otter Tail would cost about $119.71 a share, $5.0B for all its shares.
| Premium | % | Price a share | All shares |
|---|---|---|---|
| Low end (a quarter of deals paid less) | 20% | $108.42 | $4.5B |
| Median | 32.5% | $119.71 | $5.0B |
| High end (a quarter paid more) | 51.8% | $137.15 | $5.8B |
The odds, from history
Historically 5.8% of companies with its figures were bought within a year (1.16× the average). Its figures put it in decile 7 of 10 (10 = the most likely to be bought). The odds come from a model of every merger proxy, tender-offer response and going-private statement filed on EDGAR since 2011, set against each company's size, margins, debt, cash flow and growth the year before.
Otter Tail's latest quarter
Otter Tail, Q3 2026: revenue $317M (-3% year over year), operating margin 21.7%, net earnings $59.5M, operating cash flow $125M. The chart follows the revenue to costs, profit and cash.
Questions
Is Otter Tail being acquired?
No headline, 8-K or 13D about a sale is on file in the last year.
Could private equity buy Otter Tail?
A leveraged buyout at today's price plus 30% ($117.45 a share) would return a loss of about 20% a year to a private-equity buyer over 5 years; the most a buyer could pay for a 20% return is $31.07 a share (−66% against today's $90.35).
What would a takeover of Otter Tail cost?
Takeovers on record paid a median premium of 32.5% over the share price before the deal (the middle half 20% to 51.8%), according to the 1,437 merger proxies and tender-offer responses on EDGAR that state a premium. At the median, Otter Tail would cost about $119.71 a share, $5.0B for all its shares.
Updated Nov 8, 2026. Read automatically from SEC filings and public data; errors are possible. Not investment advice.