Filing Flows › PAN American Silver (PAAS) › Takeover & LBO
Is PAN American Silver (PAAS) a takeover target?
A leveraged buyout at today's price plus 30% ($49.37 a share) would return about 2% a year to a private-equity buyer over 5 years; the most a buyer could pay for a 20% return is $33.90 a share (−11% against today's $37.98).
The buyout, step by step
| Entry | Amount | How |
|---|---|---|
| Offer price a share | $49.37 | today's $37.98 plus 30% |
| × shares | 421.8 million | |
| = Equity value | $20.8B | |
| + Debt refinanced | $0 | |
| − Cash | $0 | |
| = Enterprise value | $20.8B | 12.0× EBITDA of $1.7B |
| Fees | $417M | 2% of the price |
| New debt | $9.5B | 5.5× EBITDA at 7.65% a year; the limit that binds: 5.5× EBITDA |
| Buyer's own money | $11.7B | 55% of the cost |
5 years under the buyer
| Year | Revenue | EBITDA | Interest | Free cash flow | Debt left |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | $3.7B | $1.8B | $728M | $607M | $8.9B |
| Year 2 | $3.8B | $1.8B | $681M | $679M | $8.2B |
| Year 3 | $4.0B | $1.9B | $630M | $757M | $7.5B |
| Year 4 | $4.1B | $1.9B | $572M | $840M | $6.6B |
| Year 5 | $4.2B | $2.0B | $507M | $930M | $5.7B |
The exit and the buyer's return
| Exit | Amount | |
|---|---|---|
| Exit multiple | 9.3× EBITDA | today's trading multiple, before any premium |
| Enterprise value at exit | $18.6B | |
| − Debt left | $5.7B | |
| = Buyer's equity | $12.9B | |
| Money multiple | 1.10× | on $11.7B put in |
| Buyer's yearly return (IRR) | 1.9% |
Price against return
What the buyer makes at other premiums over today's $37.98; the IRR reaches 20% at $33.90 a share.
| Premium | Price a share | Buyer's IRR |
|---|---|---|
| 10% | $41.78 | 8.8% |
| 20% | $45.58 | 5.0% |
| 30% | $49.37 | 1.9% |
| 40% | $53.17 | −0.7% |
| 50% | $56.97 | −3.0% |
The figures used
| Figure | Amount | |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue, last 12 months | $3.6B | |
| EBITDA, last 12 months | $1.7B | 47.8% of revenue |
| Depreciation and amortization | $497M | |
| Capital spending | $314M | |
| Debt | $0 | |
| Cash | $0 | |
| Share price | $37.98 | on Oct 30, 2026 |
Fixed rules, the same as the interactive view's starting point: the shares are bought at today's price plus 30%, the company's debt is refinanced and fees take 2%. New debt is the least of 5.5× EBITDA, 65% of the price and the amount whose interest EBITDA covers 2 times, at 7.65% a year (SOFR 3.89% plus the high-yield B spread 3.26% plus 0.5%, rates of Oct 15, 2026). Revenue grows 3.0% in the first year — the company's own rate, held between −3% and +8% — fading to 3% by year 5; the EBITDA margin, depreciation and capital spending stay at today's share of revenue; working capital takes 10% of each year's added revenue; tax is 21% of profit after interest. Every dollar of free cash flow repays debt. After 5 years the buyer sells at today's multiple of EBITDA.
What a takeover could cost
Takeovers on record paid a median premium of 32.5% over the share price before the deal (the middle half 20% to 51.8%), according to the 1,437 merger proxies and tender-offer responses on EDGAR that state a premium. At the median, PAN American Silver would cost about $50.32 a share, $21.2B for all its shares.
| Premium | % | Price a share | All shares |
|---|---|---|---|
| Low end (a quarter of deals paid less) | 20% | $45.58 | $19.2B |
| Median | 32.5% | $50.32 | $21.2B |
| High end (a quarter paid more) | 51.8% | $57.65 | $24.3B |
PAN American Silver's latest quarter
PAN American Silver, FY2025: revenue $3.6B (+28% year over year), operating margin 34.1%, net earnings $980M, operating cash flow $1.3B. The chart follows the revenue to costs, profit and cash.
Questions
Is PAN American Silver being acquired?
No headline, 8-K or 13D about a sale is on file in the last year.
Could private equity buy PAN American Silver?
A leveraged buyout at today's price plus 30% ($49.37 a share) would return about 2% a year to a private-equity buyer over 5 years; the most a buyer could pay for a 20% return is $33.90 a share (−11% against today's $37.98).
What would a takeover of PAN American Silver cost?
Takeovers on record paid a median premium of 32.5% over the share price before the deal (the middle half 20% to 51.8%), according to the 1,437 merger proxies and tender-offer responses on EDGAR that state a premium. At the median, PAN American Silver would cost about $50.32 a share, $21.2B for all its shares.
Updated Nov 8, 2026. Read automatically from SEC filings and public data; errors are possible. Not investment advice.