Filing Flows › Plains GP Holdings LP (PAGP) › Takeover & LBO
Is Plains GP Holdings LP (PAGP) a takeover target?
A leveraged buyout at today's price plus 30% ($34.31 a share) would return about 33% a year to a private-equity buyer over 5 years; the most a buyer could pay for a 20% return is $46.58 a share (77% against today's $26.39). Historically 3.3% of companies with its figures were bought within a year (0.66× the average). Latest signal (2026-11-06): Plains All American Reports Third-Quarter 2026 Results.
The buyout, step by step
| Entry | Amount | How |
|---|---|---|
| Offer price a share | $34.31 | today's $26.39 plus 30% |
| × shares | 197.9 million | |
| = Equity value | $6.8B | |
| + Debt refinanced | $1.1B | |
| − Cash | $1.1B | |
| = Enterprise value | $6.8B | 2.6× EBITDA of $2.6B |
| Fees | $137M | 2% of the price |
| New debt | $4.4B | 1.7× EBITDA at 7.65% a year; the limit that binds: 65% of the price |
| Buyer's own money | $2.5B | 36% of the cost |
5 years under the buyer
| Year | Revenue | EBITDA | Interest | Free cash flow | Debt left |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | $56.5B | $2.8B | $340M | $1.2B | $3.3B |
| Year 2 | $60.3B | $3.0B | $251M | $1.4B | $1.9B |
| Year 3 | $63.6B | $3.2B | $144M | $1.6B | $247M |
| Year 4 | $66.3B | $3.3B | $18.9M | $1.9B | $0 |
| Year 5 | $68.3B | $3.4B | $0 | $2.0B | $0 |
The exit and the buyer's return
| Exit | Amount | |
|---|---|---|
| Exit multiple | 2.0× EBITDA | today's trading multiple, before any premium |
| Enterprise value at exit | $6.9B | |
| − Debt left | $0 | |
| + Cash built up | $3.7B | |
| = Buyer's equity | $10.6B | |
| Money multiple | 4.18× | on $2.5B put in |
| Buyer's yearly return (IRR) | 33.1% |
Price against return
What the buyer makes at other premiums over today's $26.39; the IRR reaches 20% at $46.58 a share.
| Premium | Price a share | Buyer's IRR |
|---|---|---|
| 10% | $29.03 | 39.7% |
| 20% | $31.67 | 36.3% |
| 30% | $34.31 | 33.1% |
| 40% | $36.95 | 30.1% |
| 50% | $39.59 | 27.2% |
The figures used
| Figure | Amount | |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue, last 12 months | $52.3B | |
| EBITDA, last 12 months | $2.6B | 5.0% of revenue |
| Depreciation and amortization | $972M | |
| Capital spending | $601M | |
| Debt | $1.1B | |
| Cash | $1.1B | |
| Share price | $26.39 | on Nov 6, 2026 |
Fixed rules, the same as the interactive view's starting point: the shares are bought at today's price plus 30%, the company's debt is refinanced and fees take 2%. New debt is the least of 5.5× EBITDA, 65% of the price and the amount whose interest EBITDA covers 2 times, at 7.65% a year (SOFR 3.89% plus the high-yield B spread 3.26% plus 0.5%, rates of Oct 15, 2026). Revenue grows 8.0% in the first year — the company's own rate, held between −3% and +8% — fading to 3% by year 5; the EBITDA margin, depreciation and capital spending stay at today's share of revenue; working capital takes 10% of each year's added revenue; tax is 18% of profit after interest. Every dollar of free cash flow repays debt. After 5 years the buyer sells at today's multiple of EBITDA.
What a takeover could cost
Takeovers in its sector paid a median premium of 40% over the share price before the deal (the middle half 14.7% to 60.2%), according to the 20 merger proxies and tender-offer responses on EDGAR that state a premium. At the median, Plains GP Holdings LP would cost about $36.95 a share, $7.3B for all its shares.
| Premium | % | Price a share | All shares |
|---|---|---|---|
| Low end (a quarter of deals paid less) | 14.7% | $30.27 | $6.0B |
| Median | 40% | $36.95 | $7.3B |
| High end (a quarter paid more) | 60.2% | $42.28 | $8.4B |
The odds, from history
Historically 3.3% of companies with its figures were bought within a year (0.66× the average). Its figures put it in decile 3 of 10 (10 = the most likely to be bought). The odds come from a model of every merger proxy, tender-offer response and going-private statement filed on EDGAR since 2011, set against each company's size, margins, debt, cash flow and growth the year before.
Rumors and deal signals
- 2026-11-06 · 8-K deal · Plains All American Reports Third-Quarter 2026 Results
Plains GP Holdings LP's latest quarter
Plains GP Holdings LP, Q2 2026: revenue $17.7B (+66% year over year), operating margin 2.2%, net earnings $389M, operating cash flow $952M. The chart follows the revenue to costs, profit and cash.
Questions
Is Plains GP Holdings LP being acquired?
The latest signal on file is from 2026-11-06: Plains All American Reports Third-Quarter 2026 Results. A headline is not a deal; Filing Flows lists the news, 8-K filings and 13D filings about a sale.
Could private equity buy Plains GP Holdings LP?
A leveraged buyout at today's price plus 30% ($34.31 a share) would return about 33% a year to a private-equity buyer over 5 years; the most a buyer could pay for a 20% return is $46.58 a share (77% against today's $26.39).
What would a takeover of Plains GP Holdings LP cost?
Takeovers in its sector paid a median premium of 40% over the share price before the deal (the middle half 14.7% to 60.2%), according to the 20 merger proxies and tender-offer responses on EDGAR that state a premium. At the median, Plains GP Holdings LP would cost about $36.95 a share, $7.3B for all its shares.
Updated Nov 8, 2026. Read automatically from SEC filings and public data; errors are possible. Not investment advice.