Filing Flows › Progressive (PGR) › Stock forecast & fair value
Progressive (PGR) stock forecast and fair value
Progressive (PGR) trades at $233.18. 21 analysts' median price target is $232.00 (-0.5%), from $196.00 to $262.00. Across 16 valuation methods the middle fair value is $210.35 (-10%).
Fair value by method
| Method | Low | Point | High | vs price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E vs peers | $154.47 | $219.24 | $271.27 | -6% |
| P/E vs peers, weighted | $192.85 | $244.12 | $282.50 | +5% |
| P/E vs peers, matched | $199.61 | $255.30 | $276.49 | +9% |
| Residual income | $128.47 | $133.57 | $138.98 | -43% |
| P/B vs ROE (insurer peers) | $103.22 | $188.12 | $273.02 | -19% |
| Analysts' price targets | $196.00 | $231.71 | $262.00 | -0.6% |
| Our model (Rotation forecast) | $168.33 | $210.35 | $262.87 | -10% |
| Shareholder yield (dividends + buybacks) | $82.88 | $99.14 | $123.32 | -57% |
| Justified P/B (Gordon growth) | $382.79 | $489.17 | $677.40 | +110% |
| Dividend discount (Gordon) | $111.52 | $142.51 | $197.35 | -39% |
Progressive's latest quarter
Progressive, Q3 2026: revenue $23.2B (+3% year over year), operating margin 14.0%, net earnings $2.5B, operating cash flow $4.5B. The chart follows the revenue to costs, profit and cash.
Questions
What is the price target for PGR stock?
The median of 21 analysts' 12-month targets is $232.00, -0.5% from $233.18; the range is $196.00 to $262.00. The average rating is none.
What is Progressive's fair value?
The fair-value methods on Filing Flows (DCF, Monte Carlo, peer multiples and others) put it between $99.14 and $489.17, with a middle value of $210.35 against a price of $233.18. Each method's assumptions are on the page.
Does Progressive usually beat earnings estimates?
It beat the consensus EPS estimate in 100% of the quarters on record.
Is PGR stock a buy?
Filing Flows does not give advice. It shows what analysts expect, what each valuation method implies and the figures behind them, read from SEC filings, so you can judge for yourself.
Updated Nov 8, 2026. Read automatically from SEC filings and public data; errors are possible. Not investment advice.