Filing Flows › Companies › Phoenix Energy One, LLC › Analysis traps
Phoenix Energy One, LLC (PHXE-P): analysis traps
Where its figures could mislead a reader, and what to check before taking them at face value · Data: Q2 2026, to Jun 30, 2026, filed Aug 10, 2026; rules v1.1
Phoenix Energy One, LLC (PHXE-P): 0 rules of 10 triggered on the filings to Jun 30, 2026. 1 to review; 5 with insufficient data; 2 not applicable. Each is a question to verify, with the normal explanation that would produce the same figures.
Check these first
A precise DCF value = the true value To review · confidence high
The DCF's point value is 217.23 a share (price 25.32); 80% of it is the terminal value, a number about years no one has seen. Moving wacc by ±1 pt alone takes it from 162.88 to 325.90; across every method the research ran the range is -30 to 857. The value is a range; the decimals are not information.
Innocent reading: A stable, mature business with a narrow range of outcomes, where the point value is a fair summary.
Every rule
A01 FCF growth = the business improved Insufficient data
fewer than two fiscal years with operating cash flow and capital expenditure on file
A07 Stock compensation added back = no economic cost Insufficient data
fewer than two fiscal years of stock compensation and share counts on file
B02 Receivables growing = future cash is certain Not triggered confidence medium
Receivables grew 37% against revenue 148% in Q2 2026; DSO 25 against a median of 31: collections are keeping pace with sales.
The figures and how they are read
| Quarter | Q2 2026 |
| Revenue, year over year | +147.7% |
| Receivables, year over year | +37.4% |
| Quarter before | Q1 2026 |
| Revenue y/y, quarter before | +158.1% |
| Receivables y/y, quarter before | +140.0% |
| Days sales outstanding | 24.5 |
| DSO, median of eight quarters | 31.4 |
| Receivables | $112M |
| Revenue | $406M |
receivables and revenue against the same quarter a year earlier; DSO = receivables / quarterly revenue × days, against the median of the eight quarters before
Source: Q2 2026 (receivables and revenue) · Q2 2025 (the same quarter a year earlier)
B08 Adjusted profit = economic profit Insufficient data
no reconciliation table read from the releases yet and fewer than three quarters with both an adjusted and a GAAP EPS
C02 Low net debt = no refinancing risk Not triggered confidence medium
$148M comes due within a year, 3.5× covered by cash and investments of $37M plus $478M of free cash flow.
The figures and how they are read
| Cash and investments | $37M |
| Debt | $1.5B |
| Net debt | $1.5B |
| Due within a year | $148M |
| Read from | the debt maturity table |
| Free cash flow, twelve months | $478M |
| Cash plus free cash flow | $515M |
| Coverage of what is due | 3.5 |
| Due in the second year | $288M |
| Balance sheet date | 2026-06-30 |
due within a year from the maturity table (else the current portion of debt), against cash and investments plus free cash flow over the last twelve months (zero if negative); no credit lines assumed
Source: FY2025 (debt maturities, cash and investments)
D03 EPS growth = profit growth Insufficient data
no quarter with EPS, net income and diluted shares for both this year and last
E02 Low P/E at a cyclical peak = undervalued Insufficient data
3 fiscal years of net income on file; a cycle needs five
E07 A precise DCF value = the true value To review confidence high
The DCF's point value is 217.23 a share (price 25.32); 80% of it is the terminal value, a number about years no one has seen. Moving wacc by ±1 pt alone takes it from 162.88 to 325.90; across every method the research ran the range is -30 to 857. The value is a range; the decimals are not information.
The figures and how they are read
| dcf value | 217.23 |
| price | 25.32 |
| terminal value share | +79.7% |
| swing by input | WACC / ±1 pt / 162.88 / 325.9; Revenue growth (each year) / ±5 pts / 177.47 / 263.61; Terminal growth / ±0.5 pt / 195.0 / 248.35; Operating margin / ±3 pts / 196.84 / 237.62 |
| range all methods | -29.62; 856.59 |
the DCF's point value against the share of it that is the terminal value and the value at each input moved by one step (growth ±5 pts, WACC ±1 pt, margin ±3 pts …); the range across every method the research ran
Source: 2026-11-08 (valuation research)
What would explain it innocently
- A stable, mature business with a narrow range of outcomes, where the point value is a fair summary
- The inputs that matter most are themselves well known (a regulated return, a long contract)
What to look for in the filing
- Which input you believe differs from the research's and why
- What the price implies for growth (the reverse DCF on the fair-value page)
What would show the trap does not apply
- The DCF's value is robust to the terminal growth and discount rate (the range's low end is still above the price)
- The company's cash flows over the next three years track the DCF's early years
Look again: next filing.
J06 A bank's low P/E and high profit = safe Not applicable
not a bank
J08 A REIT's low net income = the dividend is unsafe Not applicable
not a REIT
What the statuses mean
Triggered: the filings show the pattern; read the normal explanations and the missing evidence before concluding anything. To review: one quarter or a weak signal; a reader's judgement, not a pattern. Not triggered: the pattern is absent on these figures. Insufficient data: the filings read so far do not hold what the rule needs; this is not a clean bill. Not applicable: the rule is not meant for this kind of company (a bank's working capital, a loss-making quarter's EPS growth). Out of date: the latest filing is more than fifteen months old.
Severity is what the pattern could mean for cash, value or solvency; confidence is how reliable the inputs and the reading are. The two are kept apart.
Record a view
A reader's judgement, grounds, what would change it and the next review; kept in the browser (needs JavaScript).
Every rule and the companies it triggers on → Phoenix Energy One, LLC: cash flow →
Each rule reads the company's own filings by a fixed formula and says what would explain the same figures innocently. A triggered rule is a question to verify, not a finding of manipulation, and not a view on the stock. Missing data is shown as missing, never as clear. Not investment advice.