Filing Flows › Impinj (PI) › Takeover & LBO
Is Impinj (PI) a takeover target?
A leveraged buyout at today's price plus 30% ($246.52 a share) would return a loss of about 0% a year to a private-equity buyer over 5 years; the most a buyer could pay for a 20% return is $96.34 a share (−49% against today's $189.63). It already carries 8.5× EBITDA in net debt (the model flags anything over 6×), so a buyer could add little debt of its own. Historically 7.3% of companies with its figures were bought within a year (1.45× the average).
The buyout, step by step
| Entry | Amount | How |
|---|---|---|
| Offer price a share | $246.52 | today's $189.63 plus 30% |
| × shares | 31.5 million | |
| = Equity value | $7.8B | |
| + Debt refinanced | $242M | |
| − Cash | $133M | |
| = Enterprise value | $7.9B | 616.4× EBITDA of $12.8M |
| Fees | $157M | 2% of the price |
| New debt | $70.3M | 5.5× EBITDA at 7.65% a year; the limit that binds: 5.5× EBITDA |
| Buyer's own money | $8.0B | 99% of the cost |
5 years under the buyer
| Year | Revenue | EBITDA | Interest | Free cash flow | Debt left |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | $417M | $13.8M | $5.4M | −$3.9M | $74.1M |
| Year 2 | $445M | $14.7M | $5.7M | −$3.6M | $77.8M |
| Year 3 | $469M | $15.4M | $6.0M | −$3.3M | $81.1M |
| Year 4 | $488M | $16.1M | $6.2M | −$2.9M | $84.0M |
| Year 5 | $503M | $16.6M | $6.4M | −$2.5M | $86.6M |
The exit and the buyer's return
| Exit | Amount | |
|---|---|---|
| Exit multiple | 476.1× EBITDA | today's trading multiple, before any premium |
| Enterprise value at exit | $7.9B | |
| − Debt left | $86.6M | |
| = Buyer's equity | $7.8B | |
| Money multiple | 0.98× | on $8.0B put in |
| Buyer's yearly return (IRR) | −0.4% |
Price against return
What the buyer makes at other premiums over today's $189.63; the IRR reaches 20% at $96.34 a share.
| Premium | Price a share | Buyer's IRR |
|---|---|---|
| 10% | $208.59 | 3.0% |
| 20% | $227.56 | 1.2% |
| 30% | $246.52 | −0.4% |
| 40% | $265.48 | −1.9% |
| 50% | $284.44 | −3.2% |
The figures used
| Figure | Amount | |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue, last 12 months | $388M | |
| EBITDA, last 12 months | $12.8M | 3.3% of revenue |
| Depreciation and amortization | $15.5M | |
| Capital spending | $8.6M | |
| Debt | $242M | |
| Cash | $133M | |
| Share price | $189.63 | on Oct 9, 2026 |
Fixed rules, the same as the interactive view's starting point: the shares are bought at today's price plus 30%, the company's debt is refinanced and fees take 2%. New debt is the least of 5.5× EBITDA, 65% of the price and the amount whose interest EBITDA covers 2 times, at 7.65% a year (SOFR 3.89% plus the high-yield B spread 3.26% plus 0.5%, rates of Oct 15, 2026). Revenue grows 7.7% in the first year — the company's own rate, held between −3% and +8% — fading to 3% by year 5; the EBITDA margin, depreciation and capital spending stay at today's share of revenue; working capital takes 10% of each year's added revenue; tax is 21% of profit after interest. Every dollar of free cash flow repays debt. After 5 years the buyer sells at today's multiple of EBITDA.
What a takeover could cost
Takeovers in its sector paid a median premium of 30% over the share price before the deal (the middle half 12% to 31%), according to the 14 merger proxies and tender-offer responses on EDGAR that state a premium. At the median, Impinj would cost about $246.52 a share, $7.8B for all its shares.
| Premium | % | Price a share | All shares |
|---|---|---|---|
| Low end (a quarter of deals paid less) | 12% | $212.39 | $6.7B |
| Median | 30% | $246.52 | $7.8B |
| High end (a quarter paid more) | 31% | $248.42 | $7.8B |
The odds, from history
Historically 7.3% of companies with its figures were bought within a year (1.45× the average). Its figures put it in decile 9 of 10 (10 = the most likely to be bought). The odds come from a model of every merger proxy, tender-offer response and going-private statement filed on EDGAR since 2011, set against each company's size, margins, debt, cash flow and growth the year before.
Impinj's latest quarter
Impinj, Q3 2026: revenue $112M (+17% year over year), operating margin 4.1%, net earnings $4.7M, operating cash flow $25.6M. The chart follows the revenue to costs, profit and cash.
Questions
Is Impinj being acquired?
No headline, 8-K or 13D about a sale is on file in the last year.
Could private equity buy Impinj?
A leveraged buyout at today's price plus 30% ($246.52 a share) would return a loss of about 0% a year to a private-equity buyer over 5 years; the most a buyer could pay for a 20% return is $96.34 a share (−49% against today's $189.63). It already carries 8.5× EBITDA in net debt (the model flags anything over 6×), so a buyer could add little debt of its own.
What would a takeover of Impinj cost?
Takeovers in its sector paid a median premium of 30% over the share price before the deal (the middle half 12% to 31%), according to the 14 merger proxies and tender-offer responses on EDGAR that state a premium. At the median, Impinj would cost about $246.52 a share, $7.8B for all its shares.
Updated Nov 8, 2026. Read automatically from SEC filings and public data; errors are possible. Not investment advice.