Filing Flows › Pool (POOL) › Takeover & LBO
Is Pool (POOL) a takeover target?
A leveraged buyout at today's price plus 30% ($281.66 a share) would return about 0% a year to a private-equity buyer over 5 years; the most a buyer could pay for a 20% return is $153.49 a share (−29% against today's $216.66). Historically 2.3% of companies with its figures were bought within a year (0.46× the average).
The buyout, step by step
| Entry | Amount | How |
|---|---|---|
| Offer price a share | $281.66 | today's $216.66 plus 30% |
| × shares | 35.9 million | |
| = Equity value | $10.1B | |
| + Debt refinanced | $1.2B | |
| − Cash | $106M | |
| = Enterprise value | $11.2B | 18.0× EBITDA of $621M |
| Fees | $224M | 2% of the price |
| New debt | $3.4B | 5.5× EBITDA at 7.65% a year; the limit that binds: 5.5× EBITDA |
| Buyer's own money | $8.0B | 70% of the cost |
5 years under the buyer
| Year | Revenue | EBITDA | Interest | Free cash flow | Debt left |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | $5.6B | $639M | $261M | $221M | $3.2B |
| Year 2 | $5.8B | $658M | $244M | $246M | $2.9B |
| Year 3 | $5.9B | $677M | $226M | $273M | $2.7B |
| Year 4 | $6.1B | $697M | $205M | $302M | $2.4B |
| Year 5 | $6.3B | $718M | $182M | $333M | $2.0B |
The exit and the buyer's return
| Exit | Amount | |
|---|---|---|
| Exit multiple | 14.2× EBITDA | today's trading multiple, before any premium |
| Enterprise value at exit | $10.2B | |
| − Debt left | $2.0B | |
| = Buyer's equity | $8.2B | |
| Money multiple | 1.03× | on $8.0B put in |
| Buyer's yearly return (IRR) | 0.5% |
Price against return
What the buyer makes at other premiums over today's $216.66; the IRR reaches 20% at $153.49 a share.
| Premium | Price a share | Buyer's IRR |
|---|---|---|
| 10% | $238.33 | 5.1% |
| 20% | $259.99 | 2.6% |
| 30% | $281.66 | 0.5% |
| 40% | $303.32 | −1.4% |
| 50% | $324.99 | −3.1% |
The figures used
| Figure | Amount | |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue, last 12 months | $5.4B | |
| EBITDA, last 12 months | $621M | 11.4% of revenue |
| Depreciation and amortization | $46.7M | |
| Capital spending | $58.0M | |
| Debt | $1.2B | |
| Cash | $106M | |
| Share price | $216.66 | on Nov 5, 2026 |
Fixed rules, the same as the interactive view's starting point: the shares are bought at today's price plus 30%, the company's debt is refinanced and fees take 2%. New debt is the least of 5.5× EBITDA, 65% of the price and the amount whose interest EBITDA covers 2 times, at 7.65% a year (SOFR 3.89% plus the high-yield B spread 3.26% plus 0.5%, rates of Oct 15, 2026). Revenue grows 2.9% in the first year — the company's own rate, held between −3% and +8% — fading to 3% by year 5; the EBITDA margin, depreciation and capital spending stay at today's share of revenue; working capital takes 10% of each year's added revenue; tax is 25% of profit after interest. Every dollar of free cash flow repays debt. After 5 years the buyer sells at today's multiple of EBITDA.
What a takeover could cost
Takeovers in its sector paid a median premium of 40% over the share price before the deal (the middle half 14.7% to 60.2%), according to the 20 merger proxies and tender-offer responses on EDGAR that state a premium. At the median, Pool would cost about $303.32 a share, $10.9B for all its shares.
| Premium | % | Price a share | All shares |
|---|---|---|---|
| Low end (a quarter of deals paid less) | 14.7% | $248.51 | $8.9B |
| Median | 40% | $303.32 | $10.9B |
| High end (a quarter paid more) | 60.2% | $347.09 | $12.5B |
The odds, from history
Historically 2.3% of companies with its figures were bought within a year (0.46× the average). Its figures put it in decile 1 of 10 (10 = the most likely to be bought). The odds come from a model of every merger proxy, tender-offer response and going-private statement filed on EDGAR since 2011, set against each company's size, margins, debt, cash flow and growth the year before.
Pool's latest quarter
Pool, Q3 2026: revenue $1.5B (+4% year over year), operating margin 11.4%, net earnings $123M, operating cash flow $421M. The chart follows the revenue to costs, profit and cash.
Questions
Is Pool being acquired?
No headline, 8-K or 13D about a sale is on file in the last year.
Could private equity buy Pool?
A leveraged buyout at today's price plus 30% ($281.66 a share) would return about 0% a year to a private-equity buyer over 5 years; the most a buyer could pay for a 20% return is $153.49 a share (−29% against today's $216.66).
What would a takeover of Pool cost?
Takeovers in its sector paid a median premium of 40% over the share price before the deal (the middle half 14.7% to 60.2%), according to the 20 merger proxies and tender-offer responses on EDGAR that state a premium. At the median, Pool would cost about $303.32 a share, $10.9B for all its shares.
Updated Nov 8, 2026. Read automatically from SEC filings and public data; errors are possible. Not investment advice.