Filing Flows › PPL (PPL) › Takeover & LBO
Is PPL (PPL) a takeover target?
A leveraged buyout at today's price plus 30% ($46.94 a share) would return a loss of about 6% a year to a private-equity buyer over 5 years; the most a buyer could pay for a 20% return is $14.18 a share (−61% against today's $36.10). Historically 2.8% of companies with its figures were bought within a year (0.56× the average).
The buyout, step by step
| Entry | Amount | How |
|---|---|---|
| Offer price a share | $46.94 | today's $36.10 plus 30% |
| × shares | 743.3 million | |
| = Equity value | $34.9B | |
| + Debt refinanced | $19.4B | |
| − Cash | $1.1B | |
| = Enterprise value | $53.2B | 15.5× EBITDA of $3.4B |
| Fees | $1.1B | 2% of the price |
| New debt | $18.9B | 5.5× EBITDA at 7.65% a year; the limit that binds: 5.5× EBITDA |
| Buyer's own money | $35.3B | 65% of the cost |
5 years under the buyer
| Year | Revenue | EBITDA | Interest | Free cash flow | Debt left |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | $9.8B | $3.7B | $1.4B | −$2.3B | $21.3B |
| Year 2 | $10.4B | $4.0B | $1.6B | −$2.5B | $23.8B |
| Year 3 | $11.0B | $4.2B | $1.8B | −$2.7B | $26.5B |
| Year 4 | $11.5B | $4.4B | $2.0B | −$3.0B | $29.5B |
| Year 5 | $11.8B | $4.5B | $2.3B | −$3.2B | $32.6B |
The exit and the buyer's return
| Exit | Amount | |
|---|---|---|
| Exit multiple | 13.1× EBITDA | today's trading multiple, before any premium |
| Enterprise value at exit | $58.9B | |
| − Debt left | $32.6B | |
| = Buyer's equity | $26.3B | |
| Money multiple | 0.74× | on $35.3B put in |
| Buyer's yearly return (IRR) | −5.7% |
Price against return
What the buyer makes at other premiums over today's $36.10; the IRR reaches 20% at $14.18 a share.
| Premium | Price a share | Buyer's IRR |
|---|---|---|
| 10% | $39.72 | −2.5% |
| 20% | $43.33 | −4.2% |
| 30% | $46.94 | −5.7% |
| 40% | $50.55 | −7.1% |
| 50% | $54.16 | −8.4% |
The figures used
| Figure | Amount | |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue, last 12 months | $9.0B | |
| EBITDA, last 12 months | $3.4B | 38.1% of revenue |
| Depreciation and amortization | $1.3B | |
| Capital spending | $4.0B | |
| Debt | $19.4B | |
| Cash | $1.1B | |
| Share price | $36.10 | on Nov 6, 2026 |
Fixed rules, the same as the interactive view's starting point: the shares are bought at today's price plus 30%, the company's debt is refinanced and fees take 2%. New debt is the least of 5.5× EBITDA, 65% of the price and the amount whose interest EBITDA covers 2 times, at 7.65% a year (SOFR 3.89% plus the high-yield B spread 3.26% plus 0.5%, rates of Oct 15, 2026). Revenue grows 8.0% in the first year — the company's own rate, held between −3% and +8% — fading to 3% by year 5; the EBITDA margin, depreciation and capital spending stay at today's share of revenue; working capital takes 10% of each year's added revenue; tax is 20% of profit after interest. Every dollar of free cash flow repays debt. After 5 years the buyer sells at today's multiple of EBITDA.
What a takeover could cost
Takeovers on record paid a median premium of 32.5% over the share price before the deal (the middle half 20% to 51.8%), according to the 1,437 merger proxies and tender-offer responses on EDGAR that state a premium. At the median, PPL would cost about $47.84 a share, $35.6B for all its shares.
| Premium | % | Price a share | All shares |
|---|---|---|---|
| Low end (a quarter of deals paid less) | 20% | $43.33 | $32.2B |
| Median | 32.5% | $47.84 | $35.6B |
| High end (a quarter paid more) | 51.8% | $54.81 | $40.7B |
The odds, from history
Historically 2.8% of companies with its figures were bought within a year (0.56× the average). Its figures put it in decile 2 of 10 (10 = the most likely to be bought). The odds come from a model of every merger proxy, tender-offer response and going-private statement filed on EDGAR since 2011, set against each company's size, margins, debt, cash flow and growth the year before.
PPL's latest quarter
PPL, Q3 2026: revenue $2.5B (+12% year over year), operating margin 26.6%, net earnings $367M, operating cash flow $916M. The chart follows the revenue to costs, profit and cash.
Questions
Is PPL being acquired?
No headline, 8-K or 13D about a sale is on file in the last year.
Could private equity buy PPL?
A leveraged buyout at today's price plus 30% ($46.94 a share) would return a loss of about 6% a year to a private-equity buyer over 5 years; the most a buyer could pay for a 20% return is $14.18 a share (−61% against today's $36.10).
What would a takeover of PPL cost?
Takeovers on record paid a median premium of 32.5% over the share price before the deal (the middle half 20% to 51.8%), according to the 1,437 merger proxies and tender-offer responses on EDGAR that state a premium. At the median, PPL would cost about $47.84 a share, $35.6B for all its shares.
Updated Nov 8, 2026. Read automatically from SEC filings and public data; errors are possible. Not investment advice.