Filing Flows › Primo Brands (PRMB) › Takeover & LBO
Is Primo Brands (PRMB) a takeover target?
A leveraged buyout at today's price plus 30% ($28.44 a share) would return about 3% a year to a private-equity buyer over 5 years; the most a buyer could pay for a 20% return is $15.96 a share (−27% against today's $21.88). Historically 4.9% of companies with its figures were bought within a year (0.97× the average).
The buyout, step by step
| Entry | Amount | How |
|---|---|---|
| Offer price a share | $28.44 | today's $21.88 plus 30% |
| × shares | 365.2 million | |
| = Equity value | $10.4B | |
| + Debt refinanced | $5.1B | |
| − Cash | $477M | |
| = Enterprise value | $15.0B | 12.6× EBITDA of $1.2B |
| Fees | $300M | 2% of the price |
| New debt | $6.5B | 5.5× EBITDA at 7.65% a year; the limit that binds: 5.5× EBITDA |
| Buyer's own money | $8.8B | 57% of the cost |
5 years under the buyer
| Year | Revenue | EBITDA | Interest | Free cash flow | Debt left |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | $7.1B | $1.2B | $500M | $244M | $6.3B |
| Year 2 | $7.4B | $1.3B | $481M | $284M | $6.0B |
| Year 3 | $7.7B | $1.3B | $459M | $325M | $5.7B |
| Year 4 | $7.9B | $1.4B | $434M | $367M | $5.3B |
| Year 5 | $8.2B | $1.4B | $406M | $410M | $4.9B |
The exit and the buyer's return
| Exit | Amount | |
|---|---|---|
| Exit multiple | 10.6× EBITDA | today's trading multiple, before any premium |
| Enterprise value at exit | $15.1B | |
| − Debt left | $4.9B | |
| = Buyer's equity | $10.2B | |
| Money multiple | 1.17× | on $8.8B put in |
| Buyer's yearly return (IRR) | 3.1% |
Price against return
What the buyer makes at other premiums over today's $21.88; the IRR reaches 20% at $15.96 a share.
| Premium | Price a share | Buyer's IRR |
|---|---|---|
| 10% | $24.06 | 7.5% |
| 20% | $26.25 | 5.2% |
| 30% | $28.44 | 3.1% |
| 40% | $30.62 | 1.3% |
| 50% | $32.81 | −0.3% |
The figures used
| Figure | Amount | |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue, last 12 months | $6.8B | |
| EBITDA, last 12 months | $1.2B | 17.5% of revenue |
| Depreciation and amortization | $603M | |
| Capital spending | $414M | |
| Debt | $5.1B | |
| Cash | $477M | |
| Share price | $21.88 | on Nov 6, 2026 |
Fixed rules, the same as the interactive view's starting point: the shares are bought at today's price plus 30%, the company's debt is refinanced and fees take 2%. New debt is the least of 5.5× EBITDA, 65% of the price and the amount whose interest EBITDA covers 2 times, at 7.65% a year (SOFR 3.89% plus the high-yield B spread 3.26% plus 0.5%, rates of Oct 15, 2026). Revenue grows 4.5% in the first year — the company's own rate, held between −3% and +8% — fading to 3% by year 5; the EBITDA margin, depreciation and capital spending stay at today's share of revenue; working capital takes 10% of each year's added revenue; tax is 30% of profit after interest. Every dollar of free cash flow repays debt. After 5 years the buyer sells at today's multiple of EBITDA.
What a takeover could cost
Takeovers on record paid a median premium of 32.5% over the share price before the deal (the middle half 20% to 51.8%), according to the 1,437 merger proxies and tender-offer responses on EDGAR that state a premium. At the median, Primo Brands would cost about $28.98 a share, $10.6B for all its shares.
| Premium | % | Price a share | All shares |
|---|---|---|---|
| Low end (a quarter of deals paid less) | 20% | $26.25 | $9.6B |
| Median | 32.5% | $28.98 | $10.6B |
| High end (a quarter paid more) | 51.8% | $33.21 | $12.1B |
The odds, from history
Historically 4.9% of companies with its figures were bought within a year (0.97× the average). Its figures put it in decile 6 of 10 (10 = the most likely to be bought). The odds come from a model of every merger proxy, tender-offer response and going-private statement filed on EDGAR since 2011, set against each company's size, margins, debt, cash flow and growth the year before.
Primo Brands' latest quarter
Primo Brands, Q3 2026: revenue $1.8B (+3% year over year), operating margin 13.7%, net earnings $124M, operating cash flow $294M. The chart follows the revenue to costs, profit and cash.
Questions
Is Primo Brands being acquired?
No headline, 8-K or 13D about a sale is on file in the last year.
Could private equity buy Primo Brands?
A leveraged buyout at today's price plus 30% ($28.44 a share) would return about 3% a year to a private-equity buyer over 5 years; the most a buyer could pay for a 20% return is $15.96 a share (−27% against today's $21.88).
What would a takeover of Primo Brands cost?
Takeovers on record paid a median premium of 32.5% over the share price before the deal (the middle half 20% to 51.8%), according to the 1,437 merger proxies and tender-offer responses on EDGAR that state a premium. At the median, Primo Brands would cost about $28.98 a share, $10.6B for all its shares.
Updated Nov 8, 2026. Read automatically from SEC filings and public data; errors are possible. Not investment advice.