Filing Flows › Peloton Interactive (PTON) › Takeover & LBO
Is Peloton Interactive (PTON) a takeover target?
A leveraged buyout at today's price plus 30% ($6.66 a share) would return about 2% a year to a private-equity buyer over 5 years; the most a buyer could pay for a 20% return is $4.56 a share (−11% against today's $5.12). Historically 6.7% of companies with its figures were bought within a year (1.33× the average).
The buyout, step by step
| Entry | Amount | How |
|---|---|---|
| Offer price a share | $6.66 | today's $5.12 plus 30% |
| × shares | 525.4 million | |
| = Equity value | $3.5B | |
| + Debt refinanced | $1.3B | |
| − Cash | $1.3B | |
| = Enterprise value | $3.5B | 12.1× EBITDA of $288M |
| Fees | $69.7M | 2% of the price |
| New debt | $1.6B | 5.5× EBITDA at 7.65% a year; the limit that binds: 5.5× EBITDA |
| Buyer's own money | $2.0B | 55% of the cost |
5 years under the buyer
| Year | Revenue | EBITDA | Interest | Free cash flow | Debt left |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | $2.5B | $287M | $121M | $145M | $1.4B |
| Year 2 | $2.5B | $289M | $110M | $155M | $1.3B |
| Year 3 | $2.5B | $294M | $98.0M | $167M | $1.1B |
| Year 4 | $2.6B | $300M | $85.3M | $182M | $933M |
| Year 5 | $2.6B | $309M | $71.3M | $200M | $733M |
The exit and the buyer's return
| Exit | Amount | |
|---|---|---|
| Exit multiple | 9.3× EBITDA | today's trading multiple, before any premium |
| Enterprise value at exit | $2.9B | |
| − Debt left | $733M | |
| = Buyer's equity | $2.1B | |
| Money multiple | 1.09× | on $2.0B put in |
| Buyer's yearly return (IRR) | 1.7% |
Price against return
What the buyer makes at other premiums over today's $5.12; the IRR reaches 20% at $4.56 a share.
| Premium | Price a share | Buyer's IRR |
|---|---|---|
| 10% | $5.63 | 8.6% |
| 20% | $6.14 | 4.8% |
| 30% | $6.66 | 1.7% |
| 40% | $7.17 | −0.9% |
| 50% | $7.68 | −3.2% |
The figures used
| Figure | Amount | |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue, last 12 months | $2.5B | |
| EBITDA, last 12 months | $288M | 11.7% of revenue |
| Depreciation and amortization | $51.7M | |
| Capital spending | $7.7M | |
| Debt | $1.3B | |
| Cash | $1.3B | |
| Share price | $5.12 | on Oct 30, 2026 |
Fixed rules, the same as the interactive view's starting point: the shares are bought at today's price plus 30%, the company's debt is refinanced and fees take 2%. New debt is the least of 5.5× EBITDA, 65% of the price and the amount whose interest EBITDA covers 2 times, at 7.65% a year (SOFR 3.89% plus the high-yield B spread 3.26% plus 0.5%, rates of Oct 15, 2026). Revenue grows -0.1% in the first year — the company's own rate, held between −3% and +8% — fading to 3% by year 5; the EBITDA margin, depreciation and capital spending stay at today's share of revenue; working capital takes 10% of each year's added revenue; tax is 12% of profit after interest. Every dollar of free cash flow repays debt. After 5 years the buyer sells at today's multiple of EBITDA.
What a takeover could cost
Takeovers on record paid a median premium of 32.5% over the share price before the deal (the middle half 20% to 51.8%), according to the 1,437 merger proxies and tender-offer responses on EDGAR that state a premium. At the median, Peloton Interactive would cost about $6.78 a share, $3.6B for all its shares.
| Premium | % | Price a share | All shares |
|---|---|---|---|
| Low end (a quarter of deals paid less) | 20% | $6.14 | $3.2B |
| Median | 32.5% | $6.78 | $3.6B |
| High end (a quarter paid more) | 51.8% | $7.77 | $4.1B |
The odds, from history
Historically 6.7% of companies with its figures were bought within a year (1.33× the average). Its figures put it in decile 9 of 10 (10 = the most likely to be bought). The odds come from a model of every merger proxy, tender-offer response and going-private statement filed on EDGAR since 2011, set against each company's size, margins, debt, cash flow and growth the year before.
Peloton Interactive's latest quarter
Peloton Interactive, Q1 FY27: revenue $559M (+2% year over year), operating margin 20.8%, net earnings $96.2M, operating cash flow $146M. The chart follows the revenue to costs, profit and cash.
Questions
Is Peloton Interactive being acquired?
No headline, 8-K or 13D about a sale is on file in the last year.
Could private equity buy Peloton Interactive?
A leveraged buyout at today's price plus 30% ($6.66 a share) would return about 2% a year to a private-equity buyer over 5 years; the most a buyer could pay for a 20% return is $4.56 a share (−11% against today's $5.12).
What would a takeover of Peloton Interactive cost?
Takeovers on record paid a median premium of 32.5% over the share price before the deal (the middle half 20% to 51.8%), according to the 1,437 merger proxies and tender-offer responses on EDGAR that state a premium. At the median, Peloton Interactive would cost about $6.78 a share, $3.6B for all its shares.
Updated Nov 8, 2026. Read automatically from SEC filings and public data; errors are possible. Not investment advice.