Filing Flows › PayPal Holdings (PYPL) › Takeover & LBO
Is PayPal Holdings (PYPL) a takeover target?
A leveraged buyout at today's price plus 30% ($76.65 a share) would return about 6% a year to a private-equity buyer over 5 years; the most a buyer could pay for a 20% return is $57.33 a share (−3% against today's $58.96). At $68.8B it would be larger than any buyout on record (the model flags anything over $60 billion), so this is a thought experiment more than a prospect. Historically 1.6% of companies with its figures were bought within a year (0.32× the average).
The buyout, step by step
| Entry | Amount | How |
|---|---|---|
| Offer price a share | $76.65 | today's $58.96 plus 30% |
| × shares | 858.0 million | |
| = Equity value | $65.8B | |
| + Debt refinanced | $13.4B | |
| − Cash | $10.3B | |
| = Enterprise value | $68.8B | 10.1× EBITDA of $6.8B |
| Fees | $1.4B | 2% of the price |
| New debt | $37.4B | 5.5× EBITDA at 7.65% a year; the limit that binds: 5.5× EBITDA |
| Buyer's own money | $32.8B | 47% of the cost |
5 years under the buyer
| Year | Revenue | EBITDA | Interest | Free cash flow | Debt left |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | $35.8B | $7.1B | $2.9B | $2.6B | $34.8B |
| Year 2 | $37.2B | $7.4B | $2.7B | $2.9B | $31.9B |
| Year 3 | $38.6B | $7.7B | $2.4B | $3.3B | $28.5B |
| Year 4 | $39.9B | $7.9B | $2.2B | $3.7B | $24.8B |
| Year 5 | $41.1B | $8.1B | $1.9B | $4.1B | $20.7B |
The exit and the buyer's return
| Exit | Amount | |
|---|---|---|
| Exit multiple | 7.9× EBITDA | today's trading multiple, before any premium |
| Enterprise value at exit | $64.3B | |
| − Debt left | $20.7B | |
| = Buyer's equity | $43.5B | |
| Money multiple | 1.33× | on $32.8B put in |
| Buyer's yearly return (IRR) | 5.8% |
Price against return
What the buyer makes at other premiums over today's $58.96; the IRR reaches 20% at $57.33 a share.
| Premium | Price a share | Buyer's IRR |
|---|---|---|
| 10% | $64.86 | 14.1% |
| 20% | $70.75 | 9.5% |
| 30% | $76.65 | 5.8% |
| 40% | $82.54 | 2.8% |
| 50% | $88.44 | 0.2% |
The figures used
| Figure | Amount | |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue, last 12 months | $34.3B | |
| EBITDA, last 12 months | $6.8B | 19.8% of revenue |
| Depreciation and amortization | $969M | |
| Capital spending | $794M | |
| Debt | $13.4B | |
| Cash | $10.3B | |
| Share price | $58.96 | on Nov 6, 2026 |
Fixed rules, the same as the interactive view's starting point: the shares are bought at today's price plus 30%, the company's debt is refinanced and fees take 2%. New debt is the least of 5.5× EBITDA, 65% of the price and the amount whose interest EBITDA covers 2 times, at 7.65% a year (SOFR 3.89% plus the high-yield B spread 3.26% plus 0.5%, rates of Oct 15, 2026). Revenue grows 4.4% in the first year — the company's own rate, held between −3% and +8% — fading to 3% by year 5; the EBITDA margin, depreciation and capital spending stay at today's share of revenue; working capital takes 10% of each year's added revenue; tax is 21% of profit after interest. Every dollar of free cash flow repays debt. After 5 years the buyer sells at today's multiple of EBITDA.
What a takeover could cost
Takeovers in its sector paid a median premium of 40% over the share price before the deal (the middle half 14.7% to 60.2%), according to the 20 merger proxies and tender-offer responses on EDGAR that state a premium. At the median, PayPal Holdings would cost about $82.54 a share, $70.8B for all its shares.
| Premium | % | Price a share | All shares |
|---|---|---|---|
| Low end (a quarter of deals paid less) | 14.7% | $67.63 | $58.0B |
| Median | 40% | $82.54 | $70.8B |
| High end (a quarter paid more) | 60.2% | $94.45 | $81.0B |
The odds, from history
Historically 1.6% of companies with its figures were bought within a year (0.32× the average). Its figures put it in decile 1 of 10 (10 = the most likely to be bought). The odds come from a model of every merger proxy, tender-offer response and going-private statement filed on EDGAR since 2011, set against each company's size, margins, debt, cash flow and growth the year before.
PayPal Holdings' latest quarter
PayPal Holdings, Q3 2026: revenue $8.6B (+2% year over year), operating margin 16.3%, net earnings $1.1B, operating cash flow $1.6B. The chart follows the revenue to costs, profit and cash.
Questions
Is PayPal Holdings being acquired?
No headline, 8-K or 13D about a sale is on file in the last year.
Could private equity buy PayPal Holdings?
A leveraged buyout at today's price plus 30% ($76.65 a share) would return about 6% a year to a private-equity buyer over 5 years; the most a buyer could pay for a 20% return is $57.33 a share (−3% against today's $58.96). At $68.8B it would be larger than any buyout on record (the model flags anything over $60 billion), so this is a thought experiment more than a prospect.
What would a takeover of PayPal Holdings cost?
Takeovers in its sector paid a median premium of 40% over the share price before the deal (the middle half 14.7% to 60.2%), according to the 20 merger proxies and tender-offer responses on EDGAR that state a premium. At the median, PayPal Holdings would cost about $82.54 a share, $70.8B for all its shares.
Updated Nov 8, 2026. Read automatically from SEC filings and public data; errors are possible. Not investment advice.