Filing Flows › Sturm Ruger (RGR) › Takeover & LBO
Is Sturm Ruger (RGR) a takeover target?
A leveraged buyout at today's price plus 30% ($55.82 a share) would return a loss of about 0% a year to a private-equity buyer over 5 years; no price, however low, gets a buyer to 20%. Historically 6.2% of companies with its figures were bought within a year (1.23× the average). Latest signal (2026-10-20): Beretta Holding S.A. (25.0%): As previously disclosed in Amendment No. 7 to the Schedule 13D, on September 17, 2026, the Reporting Person commenced the Tender Offer to acquire 2,400,184 Shares at a price per Share of $44.80. At the Expiration Time, 6.
The buyout, step by step
| Entry | Amount | How |
|---|---|---|
| Offer price a share | $55.82 | today's $42.94 plus 30% |
| × shares | 16.3 million | |
| = Equity value | $910M | |
| + Debt refinanced | $0 | |
| − Cash | $117M | |
| = Enterprise value | $792M | 20.2× EBITDA of $39.2M |
| Fees | $15.8M | 2% of the price |
| New debt | $216M | 5.5× EBITDA at 7.65% a year; the limit that binds: 5.5× EBITDA |
| Buyer's own money | $593M | 73% of the cost |
5 years under the buyer
| Year | Revenue | EBITDA | Interest | Free cash flow | Debt left |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | $646M | $42.3M | $16.5M | $2.5M | $213M |
| Year 2 | $690M | $45.2M | $16.3M | $4.6M | $208M |
| Year 3 | $727M | $47.7M | $15.9M | $6.8M | $202M |
| Year 4 | $758M | $49.7M | $15.4M | $9.0M | $193M |
| Year 5 | $781M | $51.2M | $14.7M | $11.2M | $182M |
The exit and the buyer's return
| Exit | Amount | |
|---|---|---|
| Exit multiple | 14.9× EBITDA | today's trading multiple, before any premium |
| Enterprise value at exit | $761M | |
| − Debt left | $182M | |
| = Buyer's equity | $579M | |
| Money multiple | 0.98× | on $593M put in |
| Buyer's yearly return (IRR) | −0.5% |
Price against return
What the buyer makes at other premiums over today's $42.94.
| Premium | Price a share | Buyer's IRR |
|---|---|---|
| 10% | $47.23 | 5.2% |
| 20% | $51.53 | 2.1% |
| 30% | $55.82 | −0.5% |
| 40% | $60.12 | −2.7% |
| 50% | $64.41 | −4.7% |
The figures used
| Figure | Amount | |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue, last 12 months | $598M | |
| EBITDA, last 12 months | $39.2M | 6.6% of revenue |
| Depreciation and amortization | $24.1M | |
| Capital spending | $17.2M | |
| Debt | $0 | |
| Cash | $117M | |
| Share price | $42.94 | on Oct 15, 2026 |
Fixed rules, the same as the interactive view's starting point: the shares are bought at today's price plus 30%, the company's debt is refinanced and fees take 2%. New debt is the least of 5.5× EBITDA, 65% of the price and the amount whose interest EBITDA covers 2 times, at 7.65% a year (SOFR 3.89% plus the high-yield B spread 3.26% plus 0.5%, rates of Oct 15, 2026). Revenue grows 8.0% in the first year — the company's own rate, held between −3% and +8% — fading to 3% by year 5; the EBITDA margin, depreciation and capital spending stay at today's share of revenue; working capital takes 10% of each year's added revenue; tax is 12% of profit after interest. Every dollar of free cash flow repays debt. After 5 years the buyer sells at today's multiple of EBITDA.
What a takeover could cost
Takeovers in its sector paid a median premium of 40% over the share price before the deal (the middle half 14.7% to 60.2%), according to the 20 merger proxies and tender-offer responses on EDGAR that state a premium. At the median, Sturm Ruger would cost about $60.12 a share, $980M for all its shares.
| Premium | % | Price a share | All shares |
|---|---|---|---|
| Low end (a quarter of deals paid less) | 14.7% | $49.25 | $803M |
| Median | 40% | $60.12 | $980M |
| High end (a quarter paid more) | 60.2% | $68.79 | $1.1B |
The odds, from history
Historically 6.2% of companies with its figures were bought within a year (1.23× the average). Its figures put it in decile 8 of 10 (10 = the most likely to be bought). The odds come from a model of every merger proxy, tender-offer response and going-private statement filed on EDGAR since 2011, set against each company's size, margins, debt, cash flow and growth the year before.
Rumors and deal signals
- 2026-10-20 · 13D · Beretta Holding S.A. (25.0%): As previously disclosed in Amendment No. 7 to the Schedule 13D, on September 17, 2026, the Reporting Person commenced the Tender Offer to acquire 2,400,184 Shares at a price per Share of $44.80. At the Expiration Time, 6
- 2026-09-28 · SC 14D9 · Response to a tender offer (Schedule 14D-9)
- 2026-09-17 · deal · Agreed sale to Beretta Holding S.A. at $44.8 cash a share · pending
- 2026-03-26 · SC 14D9 · Response to a tender offer (Schedule 14D-9)
Sturm Ruger's latest quarter
Sturm Ruger, Q3 2026: revenue $148M (+16% year over year), operating margin 4.1%, net earnings $5.8M, operating cash flow −$11.8M. The chart follows the revenue to costs, profit and cash.
Questions
Is Sturm Ruger being acquired?
The latest signal on file is from 2026-10-20: Beretta Holding S.A. (25.0%): As previously disclosed in Amendment No. 7 to the Schedule 13D, on September 17, 2026, the Reporting Person commenced the Tender Offer to acquire 2,400,184 Shares at a price per Share of $44.80. At the Expiration Time, 6. A headline is not a deal; Filing Flows lists the news, 8-K filings and 13D filings about a sale.
Could private equity buy Sturm Ruger?
A leveraged buyout at today's price plus 30% ($55.82 a share) would return a loss of about 0% a year to a private-equity buyer over 5 years; no price, however low, gets a buyer to 20%.
What would a takeover of Sturm Ruger cost?
Takeovers in its sector paid a median premium of 40% over the share price before the deal (the middle half 14.7% to 60.2%), according to the 20 merger proxies and tender-offer responses on EDGAR that state a premium. At the median, Sturm Ruger would cost about $60.12 a share, $980M for all its shares.
Updated Nov 8, 2026. Read automatically from SEC filings and public data; errors are possible. Not investment advice.