Filing Flows › Ralph Lauren (RL) › Takeover & LBO
Is Ralph Lauren (RL) a takeover target?
A leveraged buyout at today's price plus 30% ($490.53 a share) would return about 4% a year to a private-equity buyer over 5 years; no price, however low, gets a buyer to 20%. Historically 2.4% of companies with its figures were bought within a year (0.48× the average).
The buyout, step by step
| Entry | Amount | How |
|---|---|---|
| Offer price a share | $490.53 | today's $377.33 plus 30% |
| × shares | 60.9 million | |
| = Equity value | $29.9B | |
| + Debt refinanced | $1.2B | |
| − Cash | $1.8B | |
| = Enterprise value | $29.3B | 18.2× EBITDA of $1.6B |
| Fees | $586M | 2% of the price |
| New debt | $8.8B | 5.5× EBITDA at 7.65% a year; the limit that binds: 5.5× EBITDA |
| Buyer's own money | $21.0B | 70% of the cost |
5 years under the buyer
| Year | Revenue | EBITDA | Interest | Free cash flow | Debt left |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | $9.2B | $1.7B | $676M | $817M | $8.0B |
| Year 2 | $9.8B | $1.9B | $613M | $968M | $7.0B |
| Year 3 | $10.4B | $2.0B | $539M | $1.1B | $5.9B |
| Year 4 | $10.8B | $2.0B | $454M | $1.3B | $4.7B |
| Year 5 | $11.2B | $2.1B | $357M | $1.4B | $3.3B |
The exit and the buyer's return
| Exit | Amount | |
|---|---|---|
| Exit multiple | 13.9× EBITDA | today's trading multiple, before any premium |
| Enterprise value at exit | $29.3B | |
| − Debt left | $3.3B | |
| = Buyer's equity | $26.0B | |
| Money multiple | 1.23× | on $21.0B put in |
| Buyer's yearly return (IRR) | 4.3% |
Price against return
What the buyer makes at other premiums over today's $377.33.
| Premium | Price a share | Buyer's IRR |
|---|---|---|
| 10% | $415.06 | 9.7% |
| 20% | $452.80 | 6.8% |
| 30% | $490.53 | 4.3% |
| 40% | $528.26 | 2.1% |
| 50% | $566.00 | 0.2% |
The figures used
| Figure | Amount | |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue, last 12 months | $8.5B | |
| EBITDA, last 12 months | $1.6B | 18.8% of revenue |
| Depreciation and amortization | $240M | |
| Debt | $1.2B | |
| Cash | $1.8B | |
| Share price | $377.33 | on Nov 6, 2026 |
Fixed rules, the same as the interactive view's starting point: the shares are bought at today's price plus 30%, the company's debt is refinanced and fees take 2%. New debt is the least of 5.5× EBITDA, 65% of the price and the amount whose interest EBITDA covers 2 times, at 7.65% a year (SOFR 3.89% plus the high-yield B spread 3.26% plus 0.5%, rates of Oct 15, 2026). Revenue grows 8.0% in the first year — the company's own rate, held between −3% and +8% — fading to 3% by year 5; the EBITDA margin, depreciation and capital spending stay at today's share of revenue; working capital takes 10% of each year's added revenue; tax is 22% of profit after interest. Every dollar of free cash flow repays debt. After 5 years the buyer sells at today's multiple of EBITDA.
What a takeover could cost
Takeovers on record paid a median premium of 32.5% over the share price before the deal (the middle half 20% to 51.8%), according to the 1,437 merger proxies and tender-offer responses on EDGAR that state a premium. At the median, Ralph Lauren would cost about $499.96 a share, $30.4B for all its shares.
| Premium | % | Price a share | All shares |
|---|---|---|---|
| Low end (a quarter of deals paid less) | 20% | $452.80 | $27.6B |
| Median | 32.5% | $499.96 | $30.4B |
| High end (a quarter paid more) | 51.8% | $572.79 | $34.9B |
The odds, from history
Historically 2.4% of companies with its figures were bought within a year (0.48× the average). Its figures put it in decile 1 of 10 (10 = the most likely to be bought). The odds come from a model of every merger proxy, tender-offer response and going-private statement filed on EDGAR since 2011, set against each company's size, margins, debt, cash flow and growth the year before.
Ralph Lauren's latest quarter
Ralph Lauren, Q2 FY27: revenue $2.2B (+9% year over year), operating margin 16.6%, net earnings $297M, operating cash flow $279M. The chart follows the revenue to costs, profit and cash.
Questions
Is Ralph Lauren being acquired?
No headline, 8-K or 13D about a sale is on file in the last year.
Could private equity buy Ralph Lauren?
A leveraged buyout at today's price plus 30% ($490.53 a share) would return about 4% a year to a private-equity buyer over 5 years; no price, however low, gets a buyer to 20%.
What would a takeover of Ralph Lauren cost?
Takeovers on record paid a median premium of 32.5% over the share price before the deal (the middle half 20% to 51.8%), according to the 1,437 merger proxies and tender-offer responses on EDGAR that state a premium. At the median, Ralph Lauren would cost about $499.96 a share, $30.4B for all its shares.
Updated Nov 8, 2026. Read automatically from SEC filings and public data; errors are possible. Not investment advice.