Filing Flows › Sunrun (RUN) › Takeover & LBO
Is Sunrun (RUN) a takeover target?
A leveraged buyout at today's price plus 30% ($9.72 a share) would return about 11% a year to a private-equity buyer over 5 years; no price, however low, gets a buyer to 20%. It already carries 14.5× EBITDA in net debt (the model flags anything over 6×), so a buyer could add little debt of its own. Historically 3.4% of companies with its figures were bought within a year (0.68× the average).
The buyout, step by step
| Entry | Amount | How |
|---|---|---|
| Offer price a share | $9.72 | today's $7.48 plus 30% |
| × shares | 274.5 million | |
| = Equity value | $2.7B | |
| + Debt refinanced | $15.3B | |
| − Cash | $699M | |
| + Other claims | $954M | preferred stock, minority interests |
| = Enterprise value | $18.2B | 18.1× EBITDA of $1.0B |
| Fees | $364M | 2% of the price |
| New debt | $5.5B | 5.5× EBITDA at 7.65% a year; the limit that binds: 5.5× EBITDA |
| Buyer's own money | $13.0B | 70% of the cost |
5 years under the buyer
| Year | Revenue | EBITDA | Interest | Free cash flow | Debt left |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | $4.2B | $1.1B | $423M | $630M | $4.9B |
| Year 2 | $4.4B | $1.2B | $375M | $755M | $4.1B |
| Year 3 | $4.7B | $1.2B | $317M | $880M | $3.3B |
| Year 4 | $4.9B | $1.3B | $250M | $991M | $2.3B |
| Year 5 | $5.0B | $1.3B | $174M | $1.1B | $1.2B |
The exit and the buyer's return
| Exit | Amount | |
|---|---|---|
| Exit multiple | 17.5× EBITDA | today's trading multiple, before any premium |
| Enterprise value at exit | $23.0B | |
| − Debt left | $1.2B | |
| = Buyer's equity | $21.8B | |
| Money multiple | 1.67× | on $13.0B put in |
| Buyer's yearly return (IRR) | 10.8% |
Price against return
What the buyer makes at other premiums over today's $7.48.
| Premium | Price a share | Buyer's IRR |
|---|---|---|
| 10% | $8.23 | 11.5% |
| 20% | $8.98 | 11.2% |
| 30% | $9.72 | 10.8% |
| 40% | $10.47 | 10.5% |
| 50% | $11.22 | 10.1% |
The figures used
| Figure | Amount | |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue, last 12 months | $3.9B | |
| EBITDA, last 12 months | $1.0B | 26.1% of revenue |
| Depreciation and amortization | $763M | |
| Capital spending | $1.6M | |
| Debt | $15.3B | |
| Cash | $699M | |
| Share price | $7.48 | on Oct 30, 2026 |
Fixed rules, the same as the interactive view's starting point: the shares are bought at today's price plus 30%, the company's debt is refinanced and fees take 2%. New debt is the least of 5.5× EBITDA, 65% of the price and the amount whose interest EBITDA covers 2 times, at 7.65% a year (SOFR 3.89% plus the high-yield B spread 3.26% plus 0.5%, rates of Oct 15, 2026). Revenue grows 8.0% in the first year — the company's own rate, held between −3% and +8% — fading to 3% by year 5; the EBITDA margin, depreciation and capital spending stay at today's share of revenue; working capital takes 10% of each year's added revenue; tax is 21% of profit after interest. Every dollar of free cash flow repays debt. After 5 years the buyer sells at today's multiple of EBITDA.
What a takeover could cost
Takeovers in its sector paid a median premium of 40% over the share price before the deal (the middle half 14.7% to 60.2%), according to the 20 merger proxies and tender-offer responses on EDGAR that state a premium. At the median, Sunrun would cost about $10.47 a share, $2.9B for all its shares.
| Premium | % | Price a share | All shares |
|---|---|---|---|
| Low end (a quarter of deals paid less) | 14.7% | $8.58 | $2.4B |
| Median | 40% | $10.47 | $2.9B |
| High end (a quarter paid more) | 60.2% | $11.98 | $3.3B |
The odds, from history
Historically 3.4% of companies with its figures were bought within a year (0.68× the average). Its figures put it in decile 3 of 10 (10 = the most likely to be bought). The odds come from a model of every merger proxy, tender-offer response and going-private statement filed on EDGAR since 2011, set against each company's size, margins, debt, cash flow and growth the year before.
Sunrun's latest quarter
Sunrun, Q3 2026: revenue $1.1B (+52% year over year), operating margin 14.0%, net earnings $153M, operating cash flow $301M. The chart follows the revenue to costs, profit and cash.
Questions
Is Sunrun being acquired?
No headline, 8-K or 13D about a sale is on file in the last year.
Could private equity buy Sunrun?
A leveraged buyout at today's price plus 30% ($9.72 a share) would return about 11% a year to a private-equity buyer over 5 years; no price, however low, gets a buyer to 20%. It already carries 14.5× EBITDA in net debt (the model flags anything over 6×), so a buyer could add little debt of its own.
What would a takeover of Sunrun cost?
Takeovers in its sector paid a median premium of 40% over the share price before the deal (the middle half 14.7% to 60.2%), according to the 20 merger proxies and tender-offer responses on EDGAR that state a premium. At the median, Sunrun would cost about $10.47 a share, $2.9B for all its shares.
Updated Nov 8, 2026. Read automatically from SEC filings and public data; errors are possible. Not investment advice.