Filing Flows › Saia (SAIA) › Takeover & LBO
Is Saia (SAIA) a takeover target?
A leveraged buyout at today's price plus 30% ($447.99 a share) would return a loss of about 0% a year to a private-equity buyer over 5 years; the most a buyer could pay for a 20% return is $256.60 a share (−26% against today's $344.61). Historically 1.6% of companies with its figures were bought within a year (0.32× the average).
The buyout, step by step
| Entry | Amount | How |
|---|---|---|
| Offer price a share | $447.99 | today's $344.61 plus 30% |
| × shares | 26.8 million | |
| = Equity value | $12.0B | |
| + Debt refinanced | $100M | |
| − Cash | $203M | |
| = Enterprise value | $11.9B | 18.9× EBITDA of $632M |
| Fees | $238M | 2% of the price |
| New debt | $3.5B | 5.5× EBITDA at 7.65% a year; the limit that binds: 5.5× EBITDA |
| Buyer's own money | $8.7B | 71% of the cost |
5 years under the buyer
| Year | Revenue | EBITDA | Interest | Free cash flow | Debt left |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | $3.8B | $682M | $266M | −$12.7M | $3.5B |
| Year 2 | $4.1B | $728M | $267M | $3.7M | $3.5B |
| Year 3 | $4.3B | $768M | $267M | $20.1M | $3.5B |
| Year 4 | $4.5B | $801M | $265M | $35.8M | $3.4B |
| Year 5 | $4.6B | $825M | $262M | $50.3M | $3.4B |
The exit and the buyer's return
| Exit | Amount | |
|---|---|---|
| Exit multiple | 14.5× EBITDA | today's trading multiple, before any premium |
| Enterprise value at exit | $11.9B | |
| − Debt left | $3.4B | |
| = Buyer's equity | $8.6B | |
| Money multiple | 0.99× | on $8.7B put in |
| Buyer's yearly return (IRR) | −0.3% |
Price against return
What the buyer makes at other premiums over today's $344.61; the IRR reaches 20% at $256.60 a share.
| Premium | Price a share | Buyer's IRR |
|---|---|---|
| 10% | $379.07 | 4.7% |
| 20% | $413.53 | 2.1% |
| 30% | $447.99 | −0.3% |
| 40% | $482.45 | −2.3% |
| 50% | $516.91 | −4.1% |
The figures used
| Figure | Amount | |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue, last 12 months | $3.5B | |
| EBITDA, last 12 months | $632M | 17.9% of revenue |
| Depreciation and amortization | $253M | |
| Capital spending | $339M | |
| Debt | $100M | |
| Cash | $203M | |
| Share price | $344.61 | on Oct 30, 2026 |
Fixed rules, the same as the interactive view's starting point: the shares are bought at today's price plus 30%, the company's debt is refinanced and fees take 2%. New debt is the least of 5.5× EBITDA, 65% of the price and the amount whose interest EBITDA covers 2 times, at 7.65% a year (SOFR 3.89% plus the high-yield B spread 3.26% plus 0.5%, rates of Oct 15, 2026). Revenue grows 8.0% in the first year — the company's own rate, held between −3% and +8% — fading to 3% by year 5; the EBITDA margin, depreciation and capital spending stay at today's share of revenue; working capital takes 10% of each year's added revenue; tax is 24% of profit after interest. Every dollar of free cash flow repays debt. After 5 years the buyer sells at today's multiple of EBITDA.
What a takeover could cost
Takeovers in its sector paid a median premium of 40% over the share price before the deal (the middle half 14.7% to 60.2%), according to the 20 merger proxies and tender-offer responses on EDGAR that state a premium. At the median, Saia would cost about $482.45 a share, $12.9B for all its shares.
| Premium | % | Price a share | All shares |
|---|---|---|---|
| Low end (a quarter of deals paid less) | 14.7% | $395.27 | $10.6B |
| Median | 40% | $482.45 | $12.9B |
| High end (a quarter paid more) | 60.2% | $552.07 | $14.8B |
The odds, from history
Historically 1.6% of companies with its figures were bought within a year (0.32× the average). Its figures put it in decile 1 of 10 (10 = the most likely to be bought). The odds come from a model of every merger proxy, tender-offer response and going-private statement filed on EDGAR since 2011, set against each company's size, margins, debt, cash flow and growth the year before.
Saia's latest quarter
Saia, Q3 2026: revenue $982M (+17% year over year), operating margin 12.4%, net earnings $91.4M, operating cash flow $190M. The chart follows the revenue to costs, profit and cash.
Questions
Is Saia being acquired?
No headline, 8-K or 13D about a sale is on file in the last year.
Could private equity buy Saia?
A leveraged buyout at today's price plus 30% ($447.99 a share) would return a loss of about 0% a year to a private-equity buyer over 5 years; the most a buyer could pay for a 20% return is $256.60 a share (−26% against today's $344.61).
What would a takeover of Saia cost?
Takeovers in its sector paid a median premium of 40% over the share price before the deal (the middle half 14.7% to 60.2%), according to the 20 merger proxies and tender-offer responses on EDGAR that state a premium. At the median, Saia would cost about $482.45 a share, $12.9B for all its shares.
Updated Nov 8, 2026. Read automatically from SEC filings and public data; errors are possible. Not investment advice.