Filing Flows › Southern Copper (SCCO) › Takeover & LBO
Is Southern Copper (SCCO) a takeover target?
A leveraged buyout at today's price plus 30% ($214.99 a share) would return about 3% a year to a private-equity buyer over 5 years; the most a buyer could pay for a 20% return is $138.44 a share (−16% against today's $165.38). At $179.0B it would be larger than any buyout on record (the model flags anything over $60 billion), so this is a thought experiment more than a prospect. Historically 1.8% of companies with its figures were bought within a year (0.35× the average).
The buyout, step by step
| Entry | Amount | How |
|---|---|---|
| Offer price a share | $214.99 | today's $165.38 plus 30% |
| × shares | 838.1 million | |
| = Equity value | $180.2B | |
| + Debt refinanced | $6.8B | |
| − Cash | $8.1B | |
| + Other claims | $78.7M | preferred stock, minority interests |
| = Enterprise value | $179.0B | 16.4× EBITDA of $10.9B |
| Fees | $3.6B | 2% of the price |
| New debt | $60.2B | 5.5× EBITDA at 7.65% a year; the limit that binds: 5.5× EBITDA |
| Buyer's own money | $122.4B | 67% of the cost |
5 years under the buyer
| Year | Revenue | EBITDA | Interest | Free cash flow | Debt left |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | $18.5B | $11.8B | $4.6B | $3.3B | $56.9B |
| Year 2 | $19.7B | $12.6B | $4.4B | $3.9B | $53.0B |
| Year 3 | $20.8B | $13.3B | $4.1B | $4.5B | $48.5B |
| Year 4 | $21.7B | $13.9B | $3.7B | $5.1B | $43.4B |
| Year 5 | $22.3B | $14.3B | $3.3B | $5.6B | $37.8B |
The exit and the buyer's return
| Exit | Amount | |
|---|---|---|
| Exit multiple | 12.6× EBITDA | today's trading multiple, before any premium |
| Enterprise value at exit | $179.4B | |
| − Debt left | $37.8B | |
| = Buyer's equity | $141.6B | |
| Money multiple | 1.16× | on $122.4B put in |
| Buyer's yearly return (IRR) | 3.0% |
Price against return
What the buyer makes at other premiums over today's $165.38; the IRR reaches 20% at $138.44 a share.
| Premium | Price a share | Buyer's IRR |
|---|---|---|
| 10% | $181.92 | 8.5% |
| 20% | $198.46 | 5.5% |
| 30% | $214.99 | 3.0% |
| 40% | $231.53 | 0.7% |
| 50% | $248.07 | −1.2% |
The figures used
| Figure | Amount | |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue, last 12 months | $17.1B | |
| EBITDA, last 12 months | $10.9B | 64.0% of revenue |
| Depreciation and amortization | $913M | |
| Capital spending | $1.8B | |
| Debt | $6.8B | |
| Cash | $8.1B | |
| Share price | $165.38 | on Nov 6, 2026 |
Fixed rules, the same as the interactive view's starting point: the shares are bought at today's price plus 30%, the company's debt is refinanced and fees take 2%. New debt is the least of 5.5× EBITDA, 65% of the price and the amount whose interest EBITDA covers 2 times, at 7.65% a year (SOFR 3.89% plus the high-yield B spread 3.26% plus 0.5%, rates of Oct 15, 2026). Revenue grows 8.0% in the first year — the company's own rate, held between −3% and +8% — fading to 3% by year 5; the EBITDA margin, depreciation and capital spending stay at today's share of revenue; working capital takes 10% of each year's added revenue; tax is 30% of profit after interest. Every dollar of free cash flow repays debt. After 5 years the buyer sells at today's multiple of EBITDA.
What a takeover could cost
Takeovers on record paid a median premium of 32.5% over the share price before the deal (the middle half 20% to 51.8%), according to the 1,437 merger proxies and tender-offer responses on EDGAR that state a premium. At the median, Southern Copper would cost about $219.13 a share, $183.7B for all its shares.
| Premium | % | Price a share | All shares |
|---|---|---|---|
| Low end (a quarter of deals paid less) | 20% | $198.46 | $166.3B |
| Median | 32.5% | $219.13 | $183.7B |
| High end (a quarter paid more) | 51.8% | $251.05 | $210.4B |
The odds, from history
Historically 1.8% of companies with its figures were bought within a year (0.35× the average). Its figures put it in decile 1 of 10 (10 = the most likely to be bought). The odds come from a model of every merger proxy, tender-offer response and going-private statement filed on EDGAR since 2011, set against each company's size, margins, debt, cash flow and growth the year before.
Southern Copper's latest quarter
Southern Copper, Q3 2026: revenue $4.7B (+39% year over year), operating margin 59.9%, net earnings $1.8B, operating cash flow $2.2B. The chart follows the revenue to costs, profit and cash.
Questions
Is Southern Copper being acquired?
No headline, 8-K or 13D about a sale is on file in the last year.
Could private equity buy Southern Copper?
A leveraged buyout at today's price plus 30% ($214.99 a share) would return about 3% a year to a private-equity buyer over 5 years; the most a buyer could pay for a 20% return is $138.44 a share (−16% against today's $165.38). At $179.0B it would be larger than any buyout on record (the model flags anything over $60 billion), so this is a thought experiment more than a prospect.
What would a takeover of Southern Copper cost?
Takeovers on record paid a median premium of 32.5% over the share price before the deal (the middle half 20% to 51.8%), according to the 1,437 merger proxies and tender-offer responses on EDGAR that state a premium. At the median, Southern Copper would cost about $219.13 a share, $183.7B for all its shares.
Updated Nov 8, 2026. Read automatically from SEC filings and public data; errors are possible. Not investment advice.