Filing Flows › Somnigroup International (SGI) › Takeover & LBO
Is Somnigroup International (SGI) a takeover target?
A leveraged buyout at today's price plus 30% ($85.38 a share) would return about 4% a year to a private-equity buyer over 5 years; the most a buyer could pay for a 20% return is $48.26 a share (−27% against today's $65.68). Historically 2.2% of companies with its figures were bought within a year (0.44× the average).
The buyout, step by step
| Entry | Amount | How |
|---|---|---|
| Offer price a share | $85.38 | today's $65.68 plus 30% |
| × shares | 212.5 million | |
| = Equity value | $18.1B | |
| + Debt refinanced | $4.4B | |
| − Cash | $112M | |
| = Enterprise value | $22.4B | 17.9× EBITDA of $1.3B |
| Fees | $449M | 2% of the price |
| New debt | $6.9B | 5.5× EBITDA at 7.65% a year; the limit that binds: 5.5× EBITDA |
| Buyer's own money | $16.0B | 70% of the cost |
5 years under the buyer
| Year | Revenue | EBITDA | Interest | Free cash flow | Debt left |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | $8.2B | $1.4B | $527M | $400M | $6.5B |
| Year 2 | $8.8B | $1.4B | $496M | $486M | $6.0B |
| Year 3 | $9.3B | $1.5B | $459M | $571M | $5.4B |
| Year 4 | $9.7B | $1.6B | $416M | $653M | $4.8B |
| Year 5 | $9.9B | $1.6B | $366M | $731M | $4.0B |
The exit and the buyer's return
| Exit | Amount | |
|---|---|---|
| Exit multiple | 14.6× EBITDA | today's trading multiple, before any premium |
| Enterprise value at exit | $23.8B | |
| − Debt left | $4.0B | |
| = Buyer's equity | $19.8B | |
| Money multiple | 1.24× | on $16.0B put in |
| Buyer's yearly return (IRR) | 4.3% |
Price against return
What the buyer makes at other premiums over today's $65.68; the IRR reaches 20% at $48.26 a share.
| Premium | Price a share | Buyer's IRR |
|---|---|---|
| 10% | $72.25 | 8.5% |
| 20% | $78.82 | 6.3% |
| 30% | $85.38 | 4.3% |
| 40% | $91.95 | 2.6% |
| 50% | $98.52 | 1.0% |
The figures used
| Figure | Amount | |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue, last 12 months | $7.6B | |
| EBITDA, last 12 months | $1.3B | 16.4% of revenue |
| Depreciation and amortization | $302M | |
| Capital spending | $221M | |
| Debt | $4.4B | |
| Cash | $112M | |
| Share price | $65.68 | on Nov 6, 2026 |
Fixed rules, the same as the interactive view's starting point: the shares are bought at today's price plus 30%, the company's debt is refinanced and fees take 2%. New debt is the least of 5.5× EBITDA, 65% of the price and the amount whose interest EBITDA covers 2 times, at 7.65% a year (SOFR 3.89% plus the high-yield B spread 3.26% plus 0.5%, rates of Oct 15, 2026). Revenue grows 8.0% in the first year — the company's own rate, held between −3% and +8% — fading to 3% by year 5; the EBITDA margin, depreciation and capital spending stay at today's share of revenue; working capital takes 10% of each year's added revenue; tax is 25% of profit after interest. Every dollar of free cash flow repays debt. After 5 years the buyer sells at today's multiple of EBITDA.
What a takeover could cost
Takeovers on record paid a median premium of 32.5% over the share price before the deal (the middle half 20% to 51.8%), according to the 1,437 merger proxies and tender-offer responses on EDGAR that state a premium. At the median, Somnigroup International would cost about $87.03 a share, $18.5B for all its shares.
| Premium | % | Price a share | All shares |
|---|---|---|---|
| Low end (a quarter of deals paid less) | 20% | $78.82 | $16.7B |
| Median | 32.5% | $87.03 | $18.5B |
| High end (a quarter paid more) | 51.8% | $99.70 | $21.2B |
The odds, from history
Historically 2.2% of companies with its figures were bought within a year (0.44× the average). Its figures put it in decile 1 of 10 (10 = the most likely to be bought). The odds come from a model of every merger proxy, tender-offer response and going-private statement filed on EDGAR since 2011, set against each company's size, margins, debt, cash flow and growth the year before.
Somnigroup International's latest quarter
Somnigroup International, Q2 2026: revenue $1.8B (-3% year over year), operating margin 11.1%, net earnings $111M, operating cash flow $236M. The chart follows the revenue to costs, profit and cash.
Questions
Is Somnigroup International being acquired?
No headline, 8-K or 13D about a sale is on file in the last year.
Could private equity buy Somnigroup International?
A leveraged buyout at today's price plus 30% ($85.38 a share) would return about 4% a year to a private-equity buyer over 5 years; the most a buyer could pay for a 20% return is $48.26 a share (−27% against today's $65.68).
What would a takeover of Somnigroup International cost?
Takeovers on record paid a median premium of 32.5% over the share price before the deal (the middle half 20% to 51.8%), according to the 1,437 merger proxies and tender-offer responses on EDGAR that state a premium. At the median, Somnigroup International would cost about $87.03 a share, $18.5B for all its shares.
Updated Nov 8, 2026. Read automatically from SEC filings and public data; errors are possible. Not investment advice.