Filing Flows › Signet Jewelers (SIG) › Takeover & LBO
Is Signet Jewelers (SIG) a takeover target?
A leveraged buyout at today's price plus 30% ($153.34 a share) would return a loss of about 3% a year to a private-equity buyer over 5 years; no price, however low, gets a buyer to 20%. Historically 3.5% of companies with its figures were bought within a year (0.7× the average).
The buyout, step by step
| Entry | Amount | How |
|---|---|---|
| Offer price a share | $153.34 | today's $117.95 plus 30% |
| × shares | 39.3 million | |
| = Equity value | $6.0B | |
| + Debt refinanced | $0 | |
| − Cash | $527M | |
| = Enterprise value | $5.5B | 9.0× EBITDA of $610M |
| Fees | $110M | 2% of the price |
| New debt | $3.4B | 5.5× EBITDA at 7.65% a year; the limit that binds: 5.5× EBITDA |
| Buyer's own money | $2.3B | 40% of the cost |
5 years under the buyer
| Year | Revenue | EBITDA | Interest | Free cash flow | Debt left |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | $6.9B | $613M | $257M | $145M | $3.2B |
| Year 2 | $6.9B | $621M | $246M | $153M | $3.1B |
| Year 3 | $7.1B | $632M | $234M | $164M | $2.9B |
| Year 4 | $7.2B | $647M | $221M | $178M | $2.7B |
| Year 5 | $7.5B | $666M | $208M | $194M | $2.5B |
The exit and the buyer's return
| Exit | Amount | |
|---|---|---|
| Exit multiple | 6.7× EBITDA | today's trading multiple, before any premium |
| Enterprise value at exit | $4.5B | |
| − Debt left | $2.5B | |
| = Buyer's equity | $2.0B | |
| Money multiple | 0.87× | on $2.3B put in |
| Buyer's yearly return (IRR) | −2.7% |
Price against return
What the buyer makes at other premiums over today's $117.95.
| Premium | Price a share | Buyer's IRR |
|---|---|---|
| 10% | $129.75 | 7.9% |
| 20% | $141.54 | 2.2% |
| 30% | $153.34 | −2.7% |
| 40% | $165.13 | −6.3% |
| 50% | $176.93 | −9.3% |
The figures used
| Figure | Amount | |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue, last 12 months | $6.8B | |
| EBITDA, last 12 months | $610M | 8.9% of revenue |
| Depreciation and amortization | $143M | |
| Capital spending | $158M | |
| Debt | $0 | |
| Cash | $527M | |
| Share price | $117.95 | on Nov 6, 2026 |
Fixed rules, the same as the interactive view's starting point: the shares are bought at today's price plus 30%, the company's debt is refinanced and fees take 2%. New debt is the least of 5.5× EBITDA, 65% of the price and the amount whose interest EBITDA covers 2 times, at 7.65% a year (SOFR 3.89% plus the high-yield B spread 3.26% plus 0.5%, rates of Oct 15, 2026). Revenue grows 0.6% in the first year — the company's own rate, held between −3% and +8% — fading to 3% by year 5; the EBITDA margin, depreciation and capital spending stay at today's share of revenue; working capital takes 10% of each year's added revenue; tax is 23% of profit after interest. Every dollar of free cash flow repays debt. After 5 years the buyer sells at today's multiple of EBITDA.
What a takeover could cost
Takeovers on record paid a median premium of 32.5% over the share price before the deal (the middle half 20% to 51.8%), according to the 1,437 merger proxies and tender-offer responses on EDGAR that state a premium. At the median, Signet Jewelers would cost about $156.28 a share, $6.1B for all its shares.
| Premium | % | Price a share | All shares |
|---|---|---|---|
| Low end (a quarter of deals paid less) | 20% | $141.54 | $5.6B |
| Median | 32.5% | $156.28 | $6.1B |
| High end (a quarter paid more) | 51.8% | $179.05 | $7.0B |
The odds, from history
Historically 3.5% of companies with its figures were bought within a year (0.7× the average). Its figures put it in decile 3 of 10 (10 = the most likely to be bought). The odds come from a model of every merger proxy, tender-offer response and going-private statement filed on EDGAR since 2011, set against each company's size, margins, debt, cash flow and growth the year before.
Signet Jewelers' latest quarter
Signet Jewelers, Q2 FY27: revenue $1.5B (-0.5% year over year), operating margin 5.7%, net earnings $52.1M, operating cash flow $71.2M. The chart follows the revenue to costs, profit and cash.
Questions
Is Signet Jewelers being acquired?
No headline, 8-K or 13D about a sale is on file in the last year.
Could private equity buy Signet Jewelers?
A leveraged buyout at today's price plus 30% ($153.34 a share) would return a loss of about 3% a year to a private-equity buyer over 5 years; no price, however low, gets a buyer to 20%.
What would a takeover of Signet Jewelers cost?
Takeovers on record paid a median premium of 32.5% over the share price before the deal (the middle half 20% to 51.8%), according to the 1,437 merger proxies and tender-offer responses on EDGAR that state a premium. At the median, Signet Jewelers would cost about $156.28 a share, $6.1B for all its shares.
Updated Nov 8, 2026. Read automatically from SEC filings and public data; errors are possible. Not investment advice.