Filing Flows › Sylvamo (SLVM) › Takeover & LBO
Is Sylvamo (SLVM) a takeover target?
A leveraged buyout at today's price plus 30% ($41.91 a share) would return a loss of about 7% a year to a private-equity buyer over 5 years; the most a buyer could pay for a 20% return is $19.63 a share (−39% against today's $32.24). Historically 3.9% of companies with its figures were bought within a year (0.78× the average).
The buyout, step by step
| Entry | Amount | How |
|---|---|---|
| Offer price a share | $41.91 | today's $32.24 plus 30% |
| × shares | 40.0 million | |
| = Equity value | $1.7B | |
| + Debt refinanced | $900M | |
| − Cash | $172M | |
| = Enterprise value | $2.4B | 8.3× EBITDA of $291M |
| Fees | $48.1M | 2% of the price |
| New debt | $1.6B | 5.4× EBITDA at 7.65% a year; the limit that binds: 65% of the price |
| Buyer's own money | $890M | 36% of the cost |
5 years under the buyer
| Year | Revenue | EBITDA | Interest | Free cash flow | Debt left |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | $3.9B | $314M | $120M | −$91.5M | $1.7B |
| Year 2 | $4.2B | $335M | $127M | −$92.1M | $1.7B |
| Year 3 | $4.4B | $354M | $134M | −$92.3M | $1.8B |
| Year 4 | $4.6B | $369M | $141M | −$92.3M | $1.9B |
| Year 5 | $4.8B | $380M | $148M | −$92.4M | $2.0B |
The exit and the buyer's return
| Exit | Amount | |
|---|---|---|
| Exit multiple | 6.9× EBITDA | today's trading multiple, before any premium |
| Enterprise value at exit | $2.6B | |
| − Debt left | $2.0B | |
| = Buyer's equity | $612M | |
| Money multiple | 0.69× | on $890M put in |
| Buyer's yearly return (IRR) | −7.2% |
Price against return
What the buyer makes at other premiums over today's $32.24; the IRR reaches 20% at $19.63 a share.
| Premium | Price a share | Buyer's IRR |
|---|---|---|
| 10% | $35.46 | 1.3% |
| 20% | $38.69 | −2.7% |
| 30% | $41.91 | −7.2% |
| 40% | $45.14 | −10.7% |
| 50% | $48.36 | −13.0% |
The figures used
| Figure | Amount | |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue, last 12 months | $3.7B | |
| EBITDA, last 12 months | $291M | 8.0% of revenue |
| Depreciation and amortization | $189M | |
| Capital spending | $238M | |
| Debt | $900M | |
| Cash | $172M | |
| Share price | $32.24 | on Oct 30, 2026 |
Fixed rules, the same as the interactive view's starting point: the shares are bought at today's price plus 30%, the company's debt is refinanced and fees take 2%. New debt is the least of 5.5× EBITDA, 65% of the price and the amount whose interest EBITDA covers 2 times, at 7.65% a year (SOFR 3.89% plus the high-yield B spread 3.26% plus 0.5%, rates of Oct 15, 2026). Revenue grows 8.0% in the first year — the company's own rate, held between −3% and +8% — fading to 3% by year 5; the EBITDA margin, depreciation and capital spending stay at today's share of revenue; working capital takes 10% of each year's added revenue; tax is 25% of profit after interest. Every dollar of free cash flow repays debt. After 5 years the buyer sells at today's multiple of EBITDA.
What a takeover could cost
Takeovers on record paid a median premium of 32.5% over the share price before the deal (the middle half 20% to 51.8%), according to the 1,437 merger proxies and tender-offer responses on EDGAR that state a premium. At the median, Sylvamo would cost about $42.72 a share, $1.7B for all its shares.
| Premium | % | Price a share | All shares |
|---|---|---|---|
| Low end (a quarter of deals paid less) | 20% | $38.69 | $1.5B |
| Median | 32.5% | $42.72 | $1.7B |
| High end (a quarter paid more) | 51.8% | $48.94 | $2.0B |
The odds, from history
Historically 3.9% of companies with its figures were bought within a year (0.78× the average). Its figures put it in decile 4 of 10 (10 = the most likely to be bought). The odds come from a model of every merger proxy, tender-offer response and going-private statement filed on EDGAR since 2011, set against each company's size, margins, debt, cash flow and growth the year before.
Sylvamo's latest quarter
Sylvamo, Q3 2026: revenue $645M (-3% year over year), operating margin 13.5%, net loss $199M, operating cash flow $64.0M. The chart follows the revenue to costs, profit and cash.
Questions
Is Sylvamo being acquired?
No headline, 8-K or 13D about a sale is on file in the last year.
Could private equity buy Sylvamo?
A leveraged buyout at today's price plus 30% ($41.91 a share) would return a loss of about 7% a year to a private-equity buyer over 5 years; the most a buyer could pay for a 20% return is $19.63 a share (−39% against today's $32.24).
What would a takeover of Sylvamo cost?
Takeovers on record paid a median premium of 32.5% over the share price before the deal (the middle half 20% to 51.8%), according to the 1,437 merger proxies and tender-offer responses on EDGAR that state a premium. At the median, Sylvamo would cost about $42.72 a share, $1.7B for all its shares.
Updated Nov 8, 2026. Read automatically from SEC filings and public data; errors are possible. Not investment advice.