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Scotts Miracle-Gro (SMG): analysis traps
Where its figures could mislead a reader, and what to check before taking them at face value · Data: Q3 FY26, to Jun 27, 2026, filed Aug 5, 2026; rules v1.1
Scotts Miracle-Gro (SMG): 0 rules of 10 triggered on the filings to Jun 27, 2026. 2 to review; 1 with insufficient data; 2 not applicable. Each is a question to verify, with the normal explanation that would produce the same figures.
Check these first
Receivables growing = future cash is certain To review · confidence medium
Receivables outgrew revenue in Q3 FY26 (31% against 1%) and DSO is 57 against a median of 44; one quarter can be timing, so this is one to watch rather than a pattern.
A precise DCF value = the true value To review · confidence high
The DCF's point value is 19.73 a share (price 64.71); 77% of it is the terminal value, a number about years no one has seen. Moving operating margin by ±3 pts alone takes it from 4.78 to 34.67; across every method the research ran the range is -166 to 2,005. The value is a range; the decimals are not information.
Innocent reading: A stable, mature business with a narrow range of outcomes, where the point value is a fair summary.
Every rule
A01 FCF growth = the business improved Not triggered confidence high
Free cash flow did not rise ($584M → $274M): the trap does not arise.
The figures and how they are read
| Fiscal year before | FY24 |
| Fiscal year | FY25 |
| Operating cash flow, year before | $668M |
| Operating cash flow | $371M |
| Capex, year before | $84M |
| Capex | $97M |
| Free cash flow, year before | $584M |
| Free cash flow | $274M |
| Change in FCF | −$310M |
| Change in capex | $13M |
| Working capital: change in its cash contribution | −$406M |
FCF = operating cash flow − cash capex; ΔFCF = ΔOCF − ΔCapEx; the working-capital part is the change in the cash-bridge items (receivables, inventory, payables, accruals), with the sign of the cash flow statement
Source: FY25 (cash flow statement, fiscal year) · FY24 (cash flow statement, fiscal year before)
A07 Stock compensation added back = no economic cost Not triggered confidence high
Stock compensation is 2.0% of revenue: small enough that adding it back changes little.
The figures and how they are read
| Fiscal year | FY25 |
| Stock compensation | $69M |
| Revenue | $3.4B |
| SBC / revenue | +2.0% |
| Buybacks | $18M |
| Buybacks / SBC | 0.3 |
| Diluted shares, year before | 56.8M shares |
| Diluted shares | 58.7M shares |
| Diluted shares: change | +3.4% |
SBC / revenue from the cash flow statement's add-back; the diluted weighted share count year over year; buybacks from the financing section
Source: FY25 (stock compensation, buybacks and the diluted share count, fiscal year)
B02 Receivables growing = future cash is certain To review confidence medium
Receivables outgrew revenue in Q3 FY26 (31% against 1%) and DSO is 57 against a median of 44; one quarter can be timing, so this is one to watch rather than a pattern.
The figures and how they are read
| Quarter | Q3 FY26 |
| Revenue, year over year | +1.1% |
| Receivables, year over year | +30.7% |
| Quarter before | Q2 FY26 |
| Revenue y/y, quarter before | +5.0% |
| Receivables y/y, quarter before | -0.1% |
| Days sales outstanding | 57.4 |
| DSO, median of eight quarters | 44.0 |
| Receivables | $713M |
| Revenue | $1.2B |
receivables and revenue against the same quarter a year earlier; DSO = receivables / quarterly revenue × days, against the median of the eight quarters before
Source: Q3 FY26 (receivables and revenue) · Q3 FY25 (the same quarter a year earlier)
What would show the trap does not apply
- Receivables fall back in line with revenue in the next quarter and DSO returns to its history
- The 10-Q attributes the increase to a disclosed one-off (a large customer's timing, an acquisition) and the allowance for doubtful accounts did not rise
Look again: next filing.
B08 Adjusted profit = economic profit Insufficient data
no reconciliation table read from the releases yet and fewer than three quarters with both an adjusted and a GAAP EPS
C02 Low net debt = no refinancing risk Not triggered confidence medium
$277M comes due within a year, 1.1× covered by cash and investments of $28M plus $263M of free cash flow.
The figures and how they are read
| Cash and investments | $28M |
| Debt | $2.1B |
| Net debt | $2.1B |
| Due within a year | $277M |
| Read from | the current portion of debt on the balance sheet |
| Free cash flow, twelve months | $263M |
| Cash plus free cash flow | $291M |
| Coverage of what is due | 1.1 |
| Due in the second year | — |
| Balance sheet date | 2026-06-27 |
due within a year from the maturity table (else the current portion of debt), against cash and investments plus free cash flow over the last twelve months (zero if negative); no credit lines assumed
Source: 2026-06-27 (debt maturities, cash and investments)
D03 EPS growth = profit growth Not triggered confidence high
EPS fell 26% and net income fell 25% in Q3 FY26; the share count rose 1.0%: EPS growth follows profit growth.
The figures and how they are read
| Quarter | Q3 FY26 |
| Quarter before | Q3 FY25 |
| EPS, year before | $2.54 |
| EPS | $1.90 |
| Net income, year before | $149M |
| Net income | $112M |
| Diluted shares, year before | 58.6M shares |
| Diluted shares | 59.2M shares |
| EPS growth | -25.5% |
| Net income growth | -24.8% |
| Diluted shares: change | +1.0% |
| eps from profit | -$0.63 |
| eps from share count | -$0.02 |
EPS and net income against the same quarter a year earlier; the EPS bridge attributes the change to profit first, then to the share count (the order is fixed and disclosed)
Source: Q3 FY26 (net income, diluted shares, EPS) · Q3 FY25 (the same quarter a year earlier)
E02 Low P/E at a cyclical peak = undervalued Not triggered confidence medium
Net income of $155M is not at a cyclical high against the last eight years (median $145M, best $512M): the P/E of 24.7× is on a normal year.
The figures and how they are read
| market value | $3.8B |
| net income ttm | $155M |
| pe ttm | 24.70 |
| net income median fy | $145M |
| pe mid cycle | 26.40 |
| net income peak fy | $512M |
| years | FY18 / 64.0; FY19 / 461.0; FY20 / 387.0; FY21 / 512.0; FY22 / -438.0; FY23 / -380.0; FY24 / -35.0; FY25 / 145.0 |
| down years in window | 2 |
P/E on the trailing twelve months' net income against the P/E on the median net income of the last eight fiscal years (a mid-cycle stand-in); 'at a peak' = this year's profit at or above 90% of the best year and at least 1.3× the median
Source: Q3 FY26 (net income, trailing twelve months)
E07 A precise DCF value = the true value To review confidence high
The DCF's point value is 19.73 a share (price 64.71); 77% of it is the terminal value, a number about years no one has seen. Moving operating margin by ±3 pts alone takes it from 4.78 to 34.67; across every method the research ran the range is -166 to 2,005. The value is a range; the decimals are not information.
The figures and how they are read
| dcf value | 19.73 |
| price | 64.71 |
| terminal value share | +76.8% |
| swing by input | Operating margin / ±3 pts / 4.78 / 34.67; WACC / ±1 pt / 9.34 / 37.16; Revenue growth (each year) / ±5 pts / 8.62 / 33.41; Tax rate / ±5 pts / 15.52 / 23.93 |
| range all methods | -165.86; 2005.21 |
the DCF's point value against the share of it that is the terminal value and the value at each input moved by one step (growth ±5 pts, WACC ±1 pt, margin ±3 pts …); the range across every method the research ran
Source: 2026-11-08 (valuation research)
What would explain it innocently
- A stable, mature business with a narrow range of outcomes, where the point value is a fair summary
- The inputs that matter most are themselves well known (a regulated return, a long contract)
What to look for in the filing
- Which input you believe differs from the research's and why
- What the price implies for growth (the reverse DCF on the fair-value page)
What would show the trap does not apply
- The DCF's value is robust to the terminal growth and discount rate (the range's low end is still above the price)
- The company's cash flows over the next three years track the DCF's early years
Look again: next filing.
J06 A bank's low P/E and high profit = safe Not applicable
not a bank
J08 A REIT's low net income = the dividend is unsafe Not applicable
not a REIT
What the statuses mean
Triggered: the filings show the pattern; read the normal explanations and the missing evidence before concluding anything. To review: one quarter or a weak signal; a reader's judgement, not a pattern. Not triggered: the pattern is absent on these figures. Insufficient data: the filings read so far do not hold what the rule needs; this is not a clean bill. Not applicable: the rule is not meant for this kind of company (a bank's working capital, a loss-making quarter's EPS growth). Out of date: the latest filing is more than fifteen months old.
Severity is what the pattern could mean for cash, value or solvency; confidence is how reliable the inputs and the reading are. The two are kept apart.
Record a view
A reader's judgement, grounds, what would change it and the next review; kept in the browser (needs JavaScript).
Every rule and the companies it triggers on → Scotts Miracle-Gro: cash flow → Earnings quality score →
Each rule reads the company's own filings by a fixed formula and says what would explain the same figures innocently. A triggered rule is a question to verify, not a finding of manipulation, and not a view on the stock. Missing data is shown as missing, never as clear. Not investment advice.