Filing Flows › Sonoco Products (SON) › Takeover & LBO
Is Sonoco Products (SON) a takeover target?
A leveraged buyout at today's price plus 30% ($65.61 a share) would return about 2% a year to a private-equity buyer over 5 years; the most a buyer could pay for a 20% return is $28.59 a share (−43% against today's $50.47). Historically 2.7% of companies with its figures were bought within a year (0.53× the average).
The buyout, step by step
| Entry | Amount | How |
|---|---|---|
| Offer price a share | $65.61 | today's $50.47 plus 30% |
| × shares | 99.5 million | |
| = Equity value | $6.5B | |
| + Debt refinanced | $4.3B | |
| − Cash | $183M | |
| + Other claims | $17.5M | preferred stock, minority interests |
| = Enterprise value | $10.7B | 14.6× EBITDA of $730M |
| Fees | $213M | 2% of the price |
| New debt | $4.0B | 5.5× EBITDA at 7.65% a year; the limit that binds: 5.5× EBITDA |
| Buyer's own money | $6.9B | 63% of the cost |
5 years under the buyer
| Year | Revenue | EBITDA | Interest | Free cash flow | Debt left |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | $7.6B | $756M | $307M | $133M | $3.9B |
| Year 2 | $7.9B | $783M | $297M | $160M | $3.7B |
| Year 3 | $8.2B | $808M | $285M | $188M | $3.5B |
| Year 4 | $8.4B | $834M | $270M | $219M | $3.3B |
| Year 5 | $8.7B | $859M | $254M | $251M | $3.1B |
The exit and the buyer's return
| Exit | Amount | |
|---|---|---|
| Exit multiple | 12.5× EBITDA | today's trading multiple, before any premium |
| Enterprise value at exit | $10.8B | |
| − Debt left | $3.1B | |
| = Buyer's equity | $7.7B | |
| Money multiple | 1.12× | on $6.9B put in |
| Buyer's yearly return (IRR) | 2.4% |
Price against return
What the buyer makes at other premiums over today's $50.47; the IRR reaches 20% at $28.59 a share.
| Premium | Price a share | Buyer's IRR |
|---|---|---|
| 10% | $55.52 | 5.7% |
| 20% | $60.56 | 4.0% |
| 30% | $65.61 | 2.4% |
| 40% | $70.66 | 0.9% |
| 50% | $75.70 | −0.4% |
The figures used
| Figure | Amount | |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue, last 12 months | $7.4B | |
| EBITDA, last 12 months | $730M | 9.9% of revenue |
| Depreciation and amortization | $528M | |
| Capital spending | $279M | |
| Debt | $4.3B | |
| Cash | $183M | |
| Share price | $50.47 | on Nov 6, 2026 |
Fixed rules, the same as the interactive view's starting point: the shares are bought at today's price plus 30%, the company's debt is refinanced and fees take 2%. New debt is the least of 5.5× EBITDA, 65% of the price and the amount whose interest EBITDA covers 2 times, at 7.65% a year (SOFR 3.89% plus the high-yield B spread 3.26% plus 0.5%, rates of Oct 15, 2026). Revenue grows 3.6% in the first year — the company's own rate, held between −3% and +8% — fading to 3% by year 5; the EBITDA margin, depreciation and capital spending stay at today's share of revenue; working capital takes 10% of each year's added revenue; tax is 21% of profit after interest. Every dollar of free cash flow repays debt. After 5 years the buyer sells at today's multiple of EBITDA.
What a takeover could cost
Takeovers on record paid a median premium of 32.5% over the share price before the deal (the middle half 20% to 51.8%), according to the 1,437 merger proxies and tender-offer responses on EDGAR that state a premium. At the median, Sonoco Products would cost about $66.87 a share, $6.7B for all its shares.
| Premium | % | Price a share | All shares |
|---|---|---|---|
| Low end (a quarter of deals paid less) | 20% | $60.56 | $6.0B |
| Median | 32.5% | $66.87 | $6.7B |
| High end (a quarter paid more) | 51.8% | $76.61 | $7.6B |
The odds, from history
Historically 2.7% of companies with its figures were bought within a year (0.53× the average). Its figures put it in decile 2 of 10 (10 = the most likely to be bought). The odds come from a model of every merger proxy, tender-offer response and going-private statement filed on EDGAR since 2011, set against each company's size, margins, debt, cash flow and growth the year before.
Sonoco Products' latest quarter
Sonoco Products, Q3 2026: revenue $2.0B (-4% year over year), operating margin -31.2%, net loss $732M, operating cash flow $285M. The chart follows the revenue to costs, profit and cash.
Questions
Is Sonoco Products being acquired?
No headline, 8-K or 13D about a sale is on file in the last year.
Could private equity buy Sonoco Products?
A leveraged buyout at today's price plus 30% ($65.61 a share) would return about 2% a year to a private-equity buyer over 5 years; the most a buyer could pay for a 20% return is $28.59 a share (−43% against today's $50.47).
What would a takeover of Sonoco Products cost?
Takeovers on record paid a median premium of 32.5% over the share price before the deal (the middle half 20% to 51.8%), according to the 1,437 merger proxies and tender-offer responses on EDGAR that state a premium. At the median, Sonoco Products would cost about $66.87 a share, $6.7B for all its shares.
Updated Nov 8, 2026. Read automatically from SEC filings and public data; errors are possible. Not investment advice.