Filing Flows › S&P Global (SPGI) › Takeover & LBO
Is S&P Global (SPGI) a takeover target?
A leveraged buyout at today's price plus 30% ($614.13 a share) would return about 4% a year to a private-equity buyer over 5 years; the most a buyer could pay for a 20% return is $368.47 a share (−22% against today's $472.41). At $189.8B it would be larger than any buyout on record (the model flags anything over $60 billion), so this is a thought experiment more than a prospect. Historically 3.4% of companies with its figures were bought within a year (0.67× the average).
The buyout, step by step
| Entry | Amount | How |
|---|---|---|
| Offer price a share | $614.13 | today's $472.41 plus 30% |
| × shares | 291.6 million | |
| = Equity value | $179.1B | |
| + Debt refinanced | $13.1B | |
| − Cash | $2.5B | |
| + Other claims | $120M | preferred stock, minority interests |
| = Enterprise value | $189.8B | 20.7× EBITDA of $9.1B |
| Fees | $3.8B | 2% of the price |
| New debt | $50.3B | 5.5× EBITDA at 7.65% a year; the limit that binds: 5.5× EBITDA |
| Buyer's own money | $143.2B | 74% of the cost |
5 years under the buyer
| Year | Revenue | EBITDA | Interest | Free cash flow | Debt left |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | $18.6B | $9.9B | $3.8B | $4.7B | $45.7B |
| Year 2 | $19.8B | $10.5B | $3.5B | $5.5B | $40.2B |
| Year 3 | $20.9B | $11.1B | $3.1B | $6.2B | $34.0B |
| Year 4 | $21.8B | $11.6B | $2.6B | $7.0B | $27.0B |
| Year 5 | $22.5B | $11.9B | $2.1B | $7.7B | $19.3B |
The exit and the buyer's return
| Exit | Amount | |
|---|---|---|
| Exit multiple | 16.2× EBITDA | today's trading multiple, before any premium |
| Enterprise value at exit | $193.9B | |
| − Debt left | $19.3B | |
| = Buyer's equity | $174.6B | |
| Money multiple | 1.22× | on $143.2B put in |
| Buyer's yearly return (IRR) | 4.0% |
Price against return
What the buyer makes at other premiums over today's $472.41; the IRR reaches 20% at $368.47 a share.
| Premium | Price a share | Buyer's IRR |
|---|---|---|
| 10% | $519.65 | 8.7% |
| 20% | $566.89 | 6.2% |
| 30% | $614.13 | 4.0% |
| 40% | $661.37 | 2.1% |
| 50% | $708.62 | 0.4% |
The figures used
| Figure | Amount | |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue, last 12 months | $17.2B | |
| EBITDA, last 12 months | $9.1B | 53.1% of revenue |
| Depreciation and amortization | $1.4B | |
| Capital spending | $155M | |
| Debt | $13.1B | |
| Cash | $2.5B | |
| Share price | $472.41 | on Nov 6, 2026 |
Fixed rules, the same as the interactive view's starting point: the shares are bought at today's price plus 30%, the company's debt is refinanced and fees take 2%. New debt is the least of 5.5× EBITDA, 65% of the price and the amount whose interest EBITDA covers 2 times, at 7.65% a year (SOFR 3.89% plus the high-yield B spread 3.26% plus 0.5%, rates of Oct 15, 2026). Revenue grows 8.0% in the first year — the company's own rate, held between −3% and +8% — fading to 3% by year 5; the EBITDA margin, depreciation and capital spending stay at today's share of revenue; working capital takes 10% of each year's added revenue; tax is 24% of profit after interest. Every dollar of free cash flow repays debt. After 5 years the buyer sells at today's multiple of EBITDA.
What a takeover could cost
Takeovers in its sector paid a median premium of 40% over the share price before the deal (the middle half 14.7% to 60.2%), according to the 20 merger proxies and tender-offer responses on EDGAR that state a premium. At the median, S&P Global would cost about $661.37 a share, $192.9B for all its shares.
| Premium | % | Price a share | All shares |
|---|---|---|---|
| Low end (a quarter of deals paid less) | 14.7% | $541.85 | $158.0B |
| Median | 40% | $661.37 | $192.9B |
| High end (a quarter paid more) | 60.2% | $756.80 | $220.7B |
The odds, from history
Historically 3.4% of companies with its figures were bought within a year (0.67× the average). Its figures put it in decile 3 of 10 (10 = the most likely to be bought). The odds come from a model of every merger proxy, tender-offer response and going-private statement filed on EDGAR since 2011, set against each company's size, margins, debt, cash flow and growth the year before.
S&P Global's latest quarter
S&P Global, Q3 2026: revenue $3.7B (+7% year over year), operating margin 53.2%, net earnings $1.2B. The chart follows the revenue to costs, profit and cash.
Questions
Is S&P Global being acquired?
No headline, 8-K or 13D about a sale is on file in the last year.
Could private equity buy S&P Global?
A leveraged buyout at today's price plus 30% ($614.13 a share) would return about 4% a year to a private-equity buyer over 5 years; the most a buyer could pay for a 20% return is $368.47 a share (−22% against today's $472.41). At $189.8B it would be larger than any buyout on record (the model flags anything over $60 billion), so this is a thought experiment more than a prospect.
What would a takeover of S&P Global cost?
Takeovers in its sector paid a median premium of 40% over the share price before the deal (the middle half 14.7% to 60.2%), according to the 20 merger proxies and tender-offer responses on EDGAR that state a premium. At the median, S&P Global would cost about $661.37 a share, $192.9B for all its shares.
Updated Nov 8, 2026. Read automatically from SEC filings and public data; errors are possible. Not investment advice.