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Spire (SR): analysis traps
Where its figures could mislead a reader, and what to check before taking them at face value · Data: Q3 FY26, to Jun 30, 2026, filed Aug 5, 2026; rules v1.1
Spire (SR): 1 rule of 10 triggered on the filings to Jun 30, 2026: low net debt = no refinancing risk. 2 to review; 2 with insufficient data; 2 not applicable. Each is a question to verify, with the normal explanation that would produce the same figures.
Check these first
Low net debt = no refinancing risk Triggered · severity high · confidence medium
$488M of debt comes due within a year against $50M of cash and investments and no free cash flow to add: $438M short, to be refinanced or raised. Net debt of $8.2B says nothing about when the debt falls due.
Innocent reading: A committed, undrawn credit facility covers the gap (not visible in the balance sheet).
Low P/E at a cyclical peak = undervalued To review · confidence medium
Net income of $294M is at a high against a median of $221M over eight years; at 17.9× the market is not pricing it as cheap, but a multiple on this year's profit still understates the mid-cycle one (23.8×).
A precise DCF value = the true value To review · confidence high
The DCF's point value is 28.87 a share (price 88.81); 98% of it is the terminal value, a number about years no one has seen. Moving wacc by ±1 pt alone takes it from -15.28 to 112.64; across every method the research ran the range is -106 to 465. The value is a range; the decimals are not information.
Innocent reading: A stable, mature business with a narrow range of outcomes, where the point value is a fair summary.
Every rule
A01 FCF growth = the business improved Not triggered confidence high
Free cash flow did not rise ($51M → −$344M): the trap does not arise.
The figures and how they are read
| Fiscal year before | FY24 |
| Fiscal year | FY25 |
| Operating cash flow, year before | $912M |
| Operating cash flow | $578M |
| Capex, year before | $861M |
| Capex | $922M |
| Free cash flow, year before | $51M |
| Free cash flow | −$344M |
| Change in FCF | −$396M |
| Change in capex | $61M |
| Working capital: change in its cash contribution | −$36M |
FCF = operating cash flow − cash capex; ΔFCF = ΔOCF − ΔCapEx; the working-capital part is the change in the cash-bridge items (receivables, inventory, payables, accruals), with the sign of the cash flow statement
Source: FY25 (cash flow statement, fiscal year) · FY24 (cash flow statement, fiscal year before)
A07 Stock compensation added back = no economic cost Not triggered confidence high
Stock compensation is 0.3% of revenue: small enough that adding it back changes little.
The figures and how they are read
| Fiscal year | FY25 |
| Stock compensation | $7M |
| Revenue | $2.5B |
| SBC / revenue | +0.3% |
| Buybacks | 0 |
| Buybacks / SBC | 0.0 |
| Diluted shares, year before | 56 shares |
| Diluted shares | 59 shares |
| Diluted shares: change | +4.3% |
SBC / revenue from the cash flow statement's add-back; the diluted weighted share count year over year; buybacks from the financing section
Source: FY25 (stock compensation, buybacks and the diluted share count, fiscal year)
B02 Receivables growing = future cash is certain Insufficient data
fewer than five quarters with receivables and revenue on file (a year-over-year comparison needs five)
B08 Adjusted profit = economic profit Insufficient data
no reconciliation table read from the releases yet and fewer than three quarters with both an adjusted and a GAAP EPS
C02 Low net debt = no refinancing risk Triggered severity high · confidence medium
$488M of debt comes due within a year against $50M of cash and investments and no free cash flow to add: $438M short, to be refinanced or raised. Net debt of $8.2B says nothing about when the debt falls due.
The figures and how they are read
| Cash and investments | $50M |
| Debt | $8.2B |
| Net debt | $8.2B |
| Due within a year | $488M |
| Read from | the debt maturity table |
| Free cash flow, twelve months | −$223M |
| Cash plus free cash flow | $50M |
| Coverage of what is due | 0.1 |
| Due in the second year | $108M |
| Balance sheet date | 2026-03-31 |
due within a year from the maturity table (else the current portion of debt), against cash and investments plus free cash flow over the last twelve months (zero if negative); no credit lines assumed
Source: FY25 (debt maturities, cash and investments)
What would explain it innocently
- A committed, undrawn credit facility covers the gap (not visible in the balance sheet)
- The notes are routinely rolled over in the commercial-paper or bond market at an investment-grade rating
- Cash held abroad or in subsidiaries can be moved to where the debt is
- A sale of a business or asset already agreed brings the cash
What to look for in the filing
- Undrawn committed facilities and their covenants
- The cost and rating of the refinancing
- Restricted cash and the operating minimum
What would show the trap does not apply
- The 10-K lists an undrawn credit facility that covers the debt due, or the maturity is refinanced before it falls due
- Cash plus FCF of the next quarter exceeds the debt due within a year
Look again: next filing.
D03 EPS growth = profit growth Not triggered confidence high
EPS rose 33% and net income rose 35% in Q2 FY26; the share count rose 1.2%: EPS growth follows profit growth.
The figures and how they are read
| Quarter | Q2 FY26 |
| Quarter before | Q2 FY25 |
| EPS, year before | $3.58 |
| EPS | $4.77 |
| Net income, year before | $209M |
| Net income | $282M |
| Diluted shares, year before | 58.5M shares |
| Diluted shares | 59.2M shares |
| EPS growth | +33.2% |
| Net income growth | +34.8% |
| Diluted shares: change | +1.2% |
| eps from profit | $1.25 |
| eps from share count | -$0.06 |
EPS and net income against the same quarter a year earlier; the EPS bridge attributes the change to profit first, then to the share count (the order is fixed and disclosed)
Source: Q2 FY26 (net income, diluted shares, EPS) · Q2 FY25 (the same quarter a year earlier)
E02 Low P/E at a cyclical peak = undervalued To review confidence medium
Net income of $294M is at a high against a median of $221M over eight years; at 17.9× the market is not pricing it as cheap, but a multiple on this year's profit still understates the mid-cycle one (23.8×).
The figures and how they are read
| market value | $5.3B |
| net income ttm | $294M |
| pe ttm | 17.90 |
| net income median fy | $221M |
| pe mid cycle | 23.80 |
| net income peak fy | $272M |
| years | FY18 / 214.0; FY19 / 185.0; FY20 / 89.0; FY21 / 272.0; FY22 / 221.0; FY23 / 218.0; FY24 / 251.0; FY25 / 272.0 |
| down years in window | 4 |
P/E on the trailing twelve months' net income against the P/E on the median net income of the last eight fiscal years (a mid-cycle stand-in); 'at a peak' = this year's profit at or above 90% of the best year and at least 1.3× the median
Source: Q3 FY26 (net income, trailing twelve months)
What would show the trap does not apply
- Profit holds at this level through the next two years (the eight-year peak was a new base, not a top)
- The industry's capacity and prices stay where they are rather than reverting
Look again: next filing.
E07 A precise DCF value = the true value To review confidence high
The DCF's point value is 28.87 a share (price 88.81); 98% of it is the terminal value, a number about years no one has seen. Moving wacc by ±1 pt alone takes it from -15.28 to 112.64; across every method the research ran the range is -106 to 465. The value is a range; the decimals are not information.
The figures and how they are read
| dcf value | 28.87 |
| price | 88.81 |
| terminal value share | +97.6% |
| swing by input | WACC / ±1 pt / -15.28 / 112.64; Revenue growth (each year) / ±5 pts / -6.85 / 72.18; Operating margin / ±3 pts / 1.14 / 56.6; Terminal growth / ±0.5 pt / 15.88 / 46.46 |
| range all methods | -105.92; 464.95 |
the DCF's point value against the share of it that is the terminal value and the value at each input moved by one step (growth ±5 pts, WACC ±1 pt, margin ±3 pts …); the range across every method the research ran
Source: 2026-11-08 (valuation research)
What would explain it innocently
- A stable, mature business with a narrow range of outcomes, where the point value is a fair summary
- The inputs that matter most are themselves well known (a regulated return, a long contract)
What to look for in the filing
- Which input you believe differs from the research's and why
- What the price implies for growth (the reverse DCF on the fair-value page)
What would show the trap does not apply
- The DCF's value is robust to the terminal growth and discount rate (the range's low end is still above the price)
- The company's cash flows over the next three years track the DCF's early years
Look again: next filing.
J06 A bank's low P/E and high profit = safe Not applicable
not a bank
J08 A REIT's low net income = the dividend is unsafe Not applicable
not a REIT
What the statuses mean
Triggered: the filings show the pattern; read the normal explanations and the missing evidence before concluding anything. To review: one quarter or a weak signal; a reader's judgement, not a pattern. Not triggered: the pattern is absent on these figures. Insufficient data: the filings read so far do not hold what the rule needs; this is not a clean bill. Not applicable: the rule is not meant for this kind of company (a bank's working capital, a loss-making quarter's EPS growth). Out of date: the latest filing is more than fifteen months old.
Severity is what the pattern could mean for cash, value or solvency; confidence is how reliable the inputs and the reading are. The two are kept apart.
Record a view
A reader's judgement, grounds, what would change it and the next review; kept in the browser (needs JavaScript).
Every rule and the companies it triggers on → Spire: cash flow → Earnings quality score →
Each rule reads the company's own filings by a fixed formula and says what would explain the same figures innocently. A triggered rule is a question to verify, not a finding of manipulation, and not a view on the stock. Missing data is shown as missing, never as clear. Not investment advice.