Filing Flows › AT&T (T) › Takeover & LBO
Is AT&T (T) a takeover target?
A leveraged buyout at today's price plus 30% ($28.22 a share) would return about 4% a year to a private-equity buyer over 5 years; the most a buyer could pay for a 20% return is $15.31 a share (−29% against today's $21.70). At $333.0B it would be larger than any buyout on record (the model flags anything over $60 billion), so this is a thought experiment more than a prospect. Historically 3.7% of companies with its figures were bought within a year (0.74× the average).
The buyout, step by step
| Entry | Amount | How |
|---|---|---|
| Offer price a share | $28.22 | today's $21.70 plus 30% |
| × shares | 6,844.0 million | |
| = Equity value | $193.1B | |
| + Debt refinanced | $134.7B | |
| − Cash | $10.8B | |
| + Other claims | $16.0B | preferred stock, minority interests |
| = Enterprise value | $333.0B | 7.6× EBITDA of $43.6B |
| Fees | $6.7B | 2% of the price |
| New debt | $216.5B | 5.0× EBITDA at 7.65% a year; the limit that binds: 65% of the price |
| Buyer's own money | $123.2B | 36% of the cost |
5 years under the buyer
| Year | Revenue | EBITDA | Interest | Free cash flow | Debt left |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | $133.4B | $45.1B | $16.6B | $3.4B | $213.0B |
| Year 2 | $137.9B | $46.7B | $16.3B | $4.2B | $208.8B |
| Year 3 | $142.4B | $48.2B | $16.0B | $5.1B | $203.7B |
| Year 4 | $146.8B | $49.7B | $15.6B | $6.0B | $197.8B |
| Year 5 | $151.2B | $51.2B | $15.1B | $6.9B | $190.8B |
The exit and the buyer's return
| Exit | Amount | |
|---|---|---|
| Exit multiple | 6.6× EBITDA | today's trading multiple, before any premium |
| Enterprise value at exit | $338.6B | |
| − Debt left | $190.8B | |
| = Buyer's equity | $147.8B | |
| Money multiple | 1.20× | on $123.2B put in |
| Buyer's yearly return (IRR) | 3.7% |
Price against return
What the buyer makes at other premiums over today's $21.70; the IRR reaches 20% at $15.31 a share.
| Premium | Price a share | Buyer's IRR |
|---|---|---|
| 10% | $23.88 | 9.1% |
| 20% | $26.05 | 6.4% |
| 30% | $28.22 | 3.7% |
| 40% | $30.39 | 0.9% |
| 50% | $32.56 | −1.9% |
The figures used
| Figure | Amount | |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue, last 12 months | $128.9B | |
| EBITDA, last 12 months | $43.6B | 33.9% of revenue |
| Depreciation and amortization | $20.0B | |
| Capital spending | $22.4B | |
| Debt | $134.7B | |
| Cash | $10.8B | |
| Share price | $21.70 | on Nov 5, 2026 |
Fixed rules, the same as the interactive view's starting point: the shares are bought at today's price plus 30%, the company's debt is refinanced and fees take 2%. New debt is the least of 5.5× EBITDA, 65% of the price and the amount whose interest EBITDA covers 2 times, at 7.65% a year (SOFR 3.89% plus the high-yield B spread 3.26% plus 0.5%, rates of Oct 15, 2026). Revenue grows 3.5% in the first year — the company's own rate, held between −3% and +8% — fading to 3% by year 5; the EBITDA margin, depreciation and capital spending stay at today's share of revenue; working capital takes 10% of each year's added revenue; tax is 19% of profit after interest. Every dollar of free cash flow repays debt. After 5 years the buyer sells at today's multiple of EBITDA.
What a takeover could cost
Takeovers on record paid a median premium of 32.5% over the share price before the deal (the middle half 20% to 51.8%), according to the 1,437 merger proxies and tender-offer responses on EDGAR that state a premium. At the median, AT&T would cost about $28.76 a share, $196.8B for all its shares.
| Premium | % | Price a share | All shares |
|---|---|---|---|
| Low end (a quarter of deals paid less) | 20% | $26.05 | $178.3B |
| Median | 32.5% | $28.76 | $196.8B |
| High end (a quarter paid more) | 51.8% | $32.95 | $225.5B |
The odds, from history
Historically 3.7% of companies with its figures were bought within a year (0.74× the average). Its figures put it in decile 3 of 10 (10 = the most likely to be bought). The odds come from a model of every merger proxy, tender-offer response and going-private statement filed on EDGAR since 2011, set against each company's size, margins, debt, cash flow and growth the year before.
AT&T's latest quarter
AT&T, Q3 2026: revenue $32.3B (+5% year over year), operating margin 12.7%, net earnings $891M, operating cash flow $10.5B. The chart follows the revenue to costs, profit and cash.
Questions
Is AT&T being acquired?
No headline, 8-K or 13D about a sale is on file in the last year.
Could private equity buy AT&T?
A leveraged buyout at today's price plus 30% ($28.22 a share) would return about 4% a year to a private-equity buyer over 5 years; the most a buyer could pay for a 20% return is $15.31 a share (−29% against today's $21.70). At $333.0B it would be larger than any buyout on record (the model flags anything over $60 billion), so this is a thought experiment more than a prospect.
What would a takeover of AT&T cost?
Takeovers on record paid a median premium of 32.5% over the share price before the deal (the middle half 20% to 51.8%), according to the 1,437 merger proxies and tender-offer responses on EDGAR that state a premium. At the median, AT&T would cost about $28.76 a share, $196.8B for all its shares.
Updated Nov 8, 2026. Read automatically from SEC filings and public data; errors are possible. Not investment advice.