Filing Flows › Talos Energy (TALO) › Takeover & LBO
Is Talos Energy (TALO) a takeover target?
A leveraged buyout at today's price plus 30% ($23.70 a share) would return about 13% a year to a private-equity buyer over 5 years; the most a buyer could pay for a 20% return is $20.08 a share (10% against today's $18.23). Historically 4.6% of companies with its figures were bought within a year (0.91× the average). Latest signal (2026-11-03): T alos Energy Announces Third Quarter 2026 Operational and Financial Results.
The buyout, step by step
| Entry | Amount | How |
|---|---|---|
| Offer price a share | $23.70 | today's $18.23 plus 30% |
| × shares | 166.6 million | |
| = Equity value | $3.9B | |
| + Debt refinanced | $1.4B | |
| − Cash | $410M | |
| + Other claims | $707K | preferred stock, minority interests |
| = Enterprise value | $4.9B | 5.3× EBITDA of $928M |
| Fees | $98.7M | 2% of the price |
| New debt | $3.2B | 3.5× EBITDA at 7.65% a year; the limit that binds: 65% of the price |
| Buyer's own money | $1.8B | 36% of the cost |
5 years under the buyer
| Year | Revenue | EBITDA | Interest | Free cash flow | Debt left |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | $2.3B | $1.0B | $245M | $184M | $3.0B |
| Year 2 | $2.5B | $1.1B | $231M | $230M | $2.8B |
| Year 3 | $2.6B | $1.1B | $214M | $276M | $2.5B |
| Year 4 | $2.7B | $1.2B | $193M | $321M | $2.2B |
| Year 5 | $2.8B | $1.2B | $168M | $364M | $1.8B |
The exit and the buyer's return
| Exit | Amount | |
|---|---|---|
| Exit multiple | 4.3× EBITDA | today's trading multiple, before any premium |
| Enterprise value at exit | $5.3B | |
| − Debt left | $1.8B | |
| = Buyer's equity | $3.4B | |
| Money multiple | 1.87× | on $1.8B put in |
| Buyer's yearly return (IRR) | 13.4% |
Price against return
What the buyer makes at other premiums over today's $18.23; the IRR reaches 20% at $20.08 a share.
| Premium | Price a share | Buyer's IRR |
|---|---|---|
| 10% | $20.05 | 20.1% |
| 20% | $21.88 | 16.7% |
| 30% | $23.70 | 13.4% |
| 40% | $25.52 | 10.1% |
| 50% | $27.34 | 6.8% |
The figures used
| Figure | Amount | |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue, last 12 months | $2.1B | |
| EBITDA, last 12 months | $928M | 43.7% of revenue |
| Depreciation and amortization | $936M | |
| Capital spending | $515M | |
| Debt | $1.4B | |
| Cash | $410M | |
| Share price | $18.23 | on Oct 30, 2026 |
Fixed rules, the same as the interactive view's starting point: the shares are bought at today's price plus 30%, the company's debt is refinanced and fees take 2%. New debt is the least of 5.5× EBITDA, 65% of the price and the amount whose interest EBITDA covers 2 times, at 7.65% a year (SOFR 3.89% plus the high-yield B spread 3.26% plus 0.5%, rates of Oct 15, 2026). Revenue grows 8.0% in the first year — the company's own rate, held between −3% and +8% — fading to 3% by year 5; the EBITDA margin, depreciation and capital spending stay at today's share of revenue; working capital takes 10% of each year's added revenue; tax is 21% of profit after interest. Every dollar of free cash flow repays debt. After 5 years the buyer sells at today's multiple of EBITDA.
What a takeover could cost
Takeovers on record paid a median premium of 32.5% over the share price before the deal (the middle half 20% to 51.8%), according to the 1,437 merger proxies and tender-offer responses on EDGAR that state a premium. At the median, Talos Energy would cost about $24.15 a share, $4.0B for all its shares.
| Premium | % | Price a share | All shares |
|---|---|---|---|
| Low end (a quarter of deals paid less) | 20% | $21.88 | $3.6B |
| Median | 32.5% | $24.15 | $4.0B |
| High end (a quarter paid more) | 51.8% | $27.67 | $4.6B |
The odds, from history
Historically 4.6% of companies with its figures were bought within a year (0.91× the average). Its figures put it in decile 5 of 10 (10 = the most likely to be bought). The odds come from a model of every merger proxy, tender-offer response and going-private statement filed on EDGAR since 2011, set against each company's size, margins, debt, cash flow and growth the year before.
Rumors and deal signals
- 2026-11-03 · 8-K deal · T alos Energy Announces Third Quarter 2026 Operational and Financial Results
Talos Energy's latest quarter
Talos Energy, Q3 2026: revenue $596M (+32% year over year), operating margin 26.3%, net loss $81.1M, operating cash flow $326M. The chart follows the revenue to costs, profit and cash.
Questions
Is Talos Energy being acquired?
The latest signal on file is from 2026-11-03: T alos Energy Announces Third Quarter 2026 Operational and Financial Results. A headline is not a deal; Filing Flows lists the news, 8-K filings and 13D filings about a sale.
Could private equity buy Talos Energy?
A leveraged buyout at today's price plus 30% ($23.70 a share) would return about 13% a year to a private-equity buyer over 5 years; the most a buyer could pay for a 20% return is $20.08 a share (10% against today's $18.23).
What would a takeover of Talos Energy cost?
Takeovers on record paid a median premium of 32.5% over the share price before the deal (the middle half 20% to 51.8%), according to the 1,437 merger proxies and tender-offer responses on EDGAR that state a premium. At the median, Talos Energy would cost about $24.15 a share, $4.0B for all its shares.
Updated Nov 8, 2026. Read automatically from SEC filings and public data; errors are possible. Not investment advice.