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TransDigm Group (TDG): analysis traps
Where its figures could mislead a reader, and what to check before taking them at face value · Data: Q3 FY26, to Jun 27, 2026, filed Aug 4, 2026; rules v1.1
TransDigm Group (TDG): 0 rules of 10 triggered on the filings to Jun 27, 2026. 3 to review; 2 not applicable. Each is a question to verify, with the normal explanation that would produce the same figures.
Check these first
Adjusted profit = economic profit To review · confidence low
Adjusted EPS was 10% or more above GAAP in 2 of the last 3 quarters: read the reconciliation before taking the adjusted figure.
Low P/E at a cyclical peak = undervalued To review · confidence medium
Net income of $2.1B is at a high against a median of $957M over eight years; at 32.3× the market is not pricing it as cheap, but a multiple on this year's profit still understates the mid-cycle one (71.8×).
A precise DCF value = the true value To review · confidence high
The DCF's point value is 1,135.18 a share (price 1,197.01); 78% of it is the terminal value, a number about years no one has seen. Moving wacc by ±1 pt alone takes it from 860.55 to 1,547.21; across every method the research ran the range is -220 to 3,407. The value is a range; the decimals are not information.
Innocent reading: A stable, mature business with a narrow range of outcomes, where the point value is a fair summary.
Every rule
A01 FCF growth = the business improved Not triggered confidence high
Free cash flow did not rise ($1.9B → $1.8B): the trap does not arise.
The figures and how they are read
| Fiscal year before | FY24 |
| Fiscal year | FY25 |
| Operating cash flow, year before | $2.0B |
| Operating cash flow | $2.0B |
| Capex, year before | $165M |
| Capex | $222M |
| Free cash flow, year before | $1.9B |
| Free cash flow | $1.8B |
| Change in FCF | −$64M |
| Change in capex | $57M |
| Working capital: change in its cash contribution | −$219M |
FCF = operating cash flow − cash capex; ΔFCF = ΔOCF − ΔCapEx; the working-capital part is the change in the cash-bridge items (receivables, inventory, payables, accruals), with the sign of the cash flow statement
Source: FY25 (cash flow statement, fiscal year) · FY24 (cash flow statement, fiscal year before)
A07 Stock compensation added back = no economic cost Not triggered confidence high
Stock compensation is 1.7% of revenue: small enough that adding it back changes little.
The figures and how they are read
| Fiscal year | FY25 |
| Stock compensation | $152M |
| Revenue | $8.8B |
| SBC / revenue | +1.7% |
| Buybacks | $500M |
| Buybacks / SBC | 3.3 |
| Diluted shares, year before | 57.8M shares |
| Diluted shares | 58.2M shares |
| Diluted shares: change | +0.7% |
SBC / revenue from the cash flow statement's add-back; the diluted weighted share count year over year; buybacks from the financing section
Source: FY25 (stock compensation, buybacks and the diluted share count, fiscal year)
B02 Receivables growing = future cash is certain Not triggered confidence medium
Receivables grew 20% against revenue 23% in Q3 FY26; DSO 59 against a median of 59: collections are keeping pace with sales.
The figures and how they are read
| Quarter | Q3 FY26 |
| Revenue, year over year | +22.5% |
| Receivables, year over year | +19.7% |
| Quarter before | Q2 FY26 |
| Revenue y/y, quarter before | +18.3% |
| Receivables y/y, quarter before | +19.3% |
| Days sales outstanding | 58.7 |
| DSO, median of eight quarters | 59.1 |
| Receivables | $1.8B |
| Revenue | $2.7B |
receivables and revenue against the same quarter a year earlier; DSO = receivables / quarterly revenue × days, against the median of the eight quarters before
Source: Q3 FY26 (receivables and revenue) · Q3 FY25 (the same quarter a year earlier)
B08 Adjusted profit = economic profit To review confidence low
Adjusted EPS was 10% or more above GAAP in 2 of the last 3 quarters: read the reconciliation before taking the adjusted figure.
The figures and how they are read
| Quarter / adjusted EPS / GAAP EPS / gap | 2025-12-31 / 8.23 / 6.62 / 0.196; 2026-03-31 / 9.85 / 9.2 / 0.066; 2026-06-30 / 10.87 / 9.39 / 0.136 |
| Quarters with adjusted ≥ 10% above GAAP | 2 |
| Quarters compared | 3 |
| Latest gap | +13.6% |
the analysts' 'actual' (usually the company's adjusted EPS) against GAAP net income ÷ diluted shares for the matching quarter; a gap of 10% or more counts (the stand-in until three releases' reconciliation tables are on file)
Source: 2025-12-31 (adjusted 8.23 vs GAAP 6.62) · 2026-03-31 (adjusted 9.85 vs GAAP 9.20) · 2026-06-30 (adjusted 10.87 vs GAAP 9.39)
What would show the trap does not apply
- The reconciliation shows the excluded items ending (a restructuring with its final charge, a settlement paid) and the gap to GAAP closes in the next quarters
- The excluded items are only amortisation of acquired intangibles and the cash paid for the deals is in the investing cash flow
Look again: next filing.
C02 Low net debt = no refinancing risk Not triggered confidence medium
$116M comes due within a year, 40.5× covered by cash and investments of $2.8B plus $1.9B of free cash flow.
The figures and how they are read
| Cash and investments | $2.8B |
| Debt | $32.8B |
| Net debt | $30.0B |
| Due within a year | $116M |
| Read from | the debt maturity table |
| Free cash flow, twelve months | $1.9B |
| Cash plus free cash flow | $4.7B |
| Coverage of what is due | 40.5 |
| Due in the second year | $116M |
| Balance sheet date | 2026-06-27 |
due within a year from the maturity table (else the current portion of debt), against cash and investments plus free cash flow over the last twelve months (zero if negative); no credit lines assumed
Source: FY25 (debt maturities, cash and investments)
D03 EPS growth = profit growth Not triggered confidence high
EPS rose 11% and net income rose 10% in Q3 FY26; the share count fell 1.2%: EPS growth follows profit growth.
The figures and how they are read
| Quarter | Q3 FY26 |
| Quarter before | Q3 FY25 |
| EPS, year before | $8.47 |
| EPS | $9.39 |
| Net income, year before | $492M |
| Net income | $539M |
| Diluted shares, year before | 58.1M shares |
| Diluted shares | 57.4M shares |
| EPS growth | +10.9% |
| Net income growth | +9.6% |
| Diluted shares: change | -1.2% |
| eps from profit | $0.81 |
| eps from share count | $0.11 |
EPS and net income against the same quarter a year earlier; the EPS bridge attributes the change to profit first, then to the share count (the order is fixed and disclosed)
Source: Q3 FY26 (net income, diluted shares, EPS) · Q3 FY25 (the same quarter a year earlier)
E02 Low P/E at a cyclical peak = undervalued To review confidence medium
Net income of $2.1B is at a high against a median of $957M over eight years; at 32.3× the market is not pricing it as cheap, but a multiple on this year's profit still understates the mid-cycle one (71.8×).
The figures and how they are read
| market value | $68.7B |
| net income ttm | $2.1B |
| pe ttm | 32.30 |
| net income median fy | $957M |
| pe mid cycle | 71.80 |
| net income peak fy | $2.1B |
| years | FY18 / 957.0; FY19 / 890.0; FY20 / 699.0; FY21 / 680.0; FY22 / 866.0; FY23 / 1298.0; FY24 / 1714.0; FY25 / 2074.0 |
| down years in window | 3 |
P/E on the trailing twelve months' net income against the P/E on the median net income of the last eight fiscal years (a mid-cycle stand-in); 'at a peak' = this year's profit at or above 90% of the best year and at least 1.3× the median
Source: Q3 FY26 (net income, trailing twelve months)
What would show the trap does not apply
- Profit holds at this level through the next two years (the eight-year peak was a new base, not a top)
- The industry's capacity and prices stay where they are rather than reverting
Look again: next filing.
E07 A precise DCF value = the true value To review confidence high
The DCF's point value is 1,135.18 a share (price 1,197.01); 78% of it is the terminal value, a number about years no one has seen. Moving wacc by ±1 pt alone takes it from 860.55 to 1,547.21; across every method the research ran the range is -220 to 3,407. The value is a range; the decimals are not information.
The figures and how they are read
| dcf value | 1,135.18 |
| price | 1,197.01 |
| terminal value share | +77.9% |
| swing by input | WACC / ±1 pt / 860.55 / 1547.21; Revenue growth (each year) / ±5 pts / 826.12 / 1502.06; Operating margin / ±3 pts / 1027.51 / 1242.85; Tax rate / ±5 pts / 1028.96 / 1241.4 |
| range all methods | -219.66; 3407.13 |
the DCF's point value against the share of it that is the terminal value and the value at each input moved by one step (growth ±5 pts, WACC ±1 pt, margin ±3 pts …); the range across every method the research ran
Source: 2026-11-08 (valuation research)
What would explain it innocently
- A stable, mature business with a narrow range of outcomes, where the point value is a fair summary
- The inputs that matter most are themselves well known (a regulated return, a long contract)
What to look for in the filing
- Which input you believe differs from the research's and why
- What the price implies for growth (the reverse DCF on the fair-value page)
What would show the trap does not apply
- The DCF's value is robust to the terminal growth and discount rate (the range's low end is still above the price)
- The company's cash flows over the next three years track the DCF's early years
Look again: next filing.
J06 A bank's low P/E and high profit = safe Not applicable
not a bank
J08 A REIT's low net income = the dividend is unsafe Not applicable
not a REIT
What the statuses mean
Triggered: the filings show the pattern; read the normal explanations and the missing evidence before concluding anything. To review: one quarter or a weak signal; a reader's judgement, not a pattern. Not triggered: the pattern is absent on these figures. Insufficient data: the filings read so far do not hold what the rule needs; this is not a clean bill. Not applicable: the rule is not meant for this kind of company (a bank's working capital, a loss-making quarter's EPS growth). Out of date: the latest filing is more than fifteen months old.
Severity is what the pattern could mean for cash, value or solvency; confidence is how reliable the inputs and the reading are. The two are kept apart.
Record a view
A reader's judgement, grounds, what would change it and the next review; kept in the browser (needs JavaScript).
Every rule and the companies it triggers on → TransDigm Group: cash flow → Earnings quality score →
Each rule reads the company's own filings by a fixed formula and says what would explain the same figures innocently. A triggered rule is a question to verify, not a finding of manipulation, and not a view on the stock. Missing data is shown as missing, never as clear. Not investment advice.