Filing Flows › Gentherm (THRM) › Takeover & LBO
Is Gentherm (THRM) a takeover target?
A leveraged buyout at today's price plus 30% ($40.23 a share) would return about 1% a year to a private-equity buyer over 5 years; the most a buyer could pay for a 20% return is $22.95 a share (−26% against today's $30.95). Historically 3.6% of companies with its figures were bought within a year (0.71× the average).
The buyout, step by step
| Entry | Amount | How |
|---|---|---|
| Offer price a share | $40.23 | today's $30.95 plus 30% |
| × shares | 52.5 million | |
| = Equity value | $2.1B | |
| + Debt refinanced | $320M | |
| − Cash | $252M | |
| = Enterprise value | $2.2B | 19.4× EBITDA of $112M |
| Fees | $43.6M | 2% of the price |
| New debt | $617M | 5.5× EBITDA at 7.65% a year; the limit that binds: 5.5× EBITDA |
| Buyer's own money | $1.6B | 72% of the cost |
5 years under the buyer
| Year | Revenue | EBITDA | Interest | Free cash flow | Debt left |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | $1.7B | $121M | $47.2M | $9.4M | $608M |
| Year 2 | $1.8B | $129M | $46.5M | $14.7M | $593M |
| Year 3 | $1.9B | $136M | $45.4M | $20.3M | $573M |
| Year 4 | $2.0B | $142M | $43.8M | $25.9M | $547M |
| Year 5 | $2.1B | $147M | $41.8M | $31.4M | $515M |
The exit and the buyer's return
| Exit | Amount | |
|---|---|---|
| Exit multiple | 15.1× EBITDA | today's trading multiple, before any premium |
| Enterprise value at exit | $2.2B | |
| − Debt left | $515M | |
| = Buyer's equity | $1.7B | |
| Money multiple | 1.06× | on $1.6B put in |
| Buyer's yearly return (IRR) | 1.1% |
Price against return
What the buyer makes at other premiums over today's $30.95; the IRR reaches 20% at $22.95 a share.
| Premium | Price a share | Buyer's IRR |
|---|---|---|
| 10% | $34.05 | 5.9% |
| 20% | $37.14 | 3.3% |
| 30% | $40.23 | 1.1% |
| 40% | $43.33 | −0.9% |
| 50% | $46.42 | −2.6% |
The figures used
| Figure | Amount | |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue, last 12 months | $1.6B | |
| EBITDA, last 12 months | $112M | 7.0% of revenue |
| Depreciation and amortization | $58.1M | |
| Capital spending | $44.9M | |
| Debt | $320M | |
| Cash | $252M | |
| Share price | $30.95 | on Oct 30, 2026 |
Fixed rules, the same as the interactive view's starting point: the shares are bought at today's price plus 30%, the company's debt is refinanced and fees take 2%. New debt is the least of 5.5× EBITDA, 65% of the price and the amount whose interest EBITDA covers 2 times, at 7.65% a year (SOFR 3.89% plus the high-yield B spread 3.26% plus 0.5%, rates of Oct 15, 2026). Revenue grows 8.0% in the first year — the company's own rate, held between −3% and +8% — fading to 3% by year 5; the EBITDA margin, depreciation and capital spending stay at today's share of revenue; working capital takes 10% of each year's added revenue; tax is 30% of profit after interest. Every dollar of free cash flow repays debt. After 5 years the buyer sells at today's multiple of EBITDA.
What a takeover could cost
Takeovers on record paid a median premium of 32.5% over the share price before the deal (the middle half 20% to 51.8%), according to the 1,437 merger proxies and tender-offer responses on EDGAR that state a premium. At the median, Gentherm would cost about $41.01 a share, $2.2B for all its shares.
| Premium | % | Price a share | All shares |
|---|---|---|---|
| Low end (a quarter of deals paid less) | 20% | $37.14 | $2.0B |
| Median | 32.5% | $41.01 | $2.2B |
| High end (a quarter paid more) | 51.8% | $46.98 | $2.5B |
The odds, from history
Historically 3.6% of companies with its figures were bought within a year (0.71× the average). Its figures put it in decile 3 of 10 (10 = the most likely to be bought). The odds come from a model of every merger proxy, tender-offer response and going-private statement filed on EDGAR since 2011, set against each company's size, margins, debt, cash flow and growth the year before.
Gentherm's latest quarter
Gentherm, Q3 2026: revenue $405M (+5% year over year), operating margin 3.5%, net loss $2.6M, operating cash flow $33.7M. The chart follows the revenue to costs, profit and cash.
Questions
Is Gentherm being acquired?
No headline, 8-K or 13D about a sale is on file in the last year.
Could private equity buy Gentherm?
A leveraged buyout at today's price plus 30% ($40.23 a share) would return about 1% a year to a private-equity buyer over 5 years; the most a buyer could pay for a 20% return is $22.95 a share (−26% against today's $30.95).
What would a takeover of Gentherm cost?
Takeovers on record paid a median premium of 32.5% over the share price before the deal (the middle half 20% to 51.8%), according to the 1,437 merger proxies and tender-offer responses on EDGAR that state a premium. At the median, Gentherm would cost about $41.01 a share, $2.2B for all its shares.
Updated Nov 8, 2026. Read automatically from SEC filings and public data; errors are possible. Not investment advice.