Filing Flows › T-Mobile US (TMUS) › Takeover & LBO
Is T-Mobile US (TMUS) a takeover target?
A leveraged buyout at today's price plus 30% ($208.77 a share) would return about 11% a year to a private-equity buyer over 5 years; the most a buyer could pay for a 20% return is $161.62 a share (1% against today's $160.59). At $310.7B it would be larger than any buyout on record (the model flags anything over $60 billion), so this is a thought experiment more than a prospect. Historically 2.1% of companies with its figures were bought within a year (0.43× the average).
The buyout, step by step
| Entry | Amount | How |
|---|---|---|
| Offer price a share | $208.77 | today's $160.59 plus 30% |
| × shares | 1,071.6 million | |
| = Equity value | $223.7B | |
| + Debt refinanced | $92.6B | |
| − Cash | $5.6B | |
| = Enterprise value | $310.7B | 9.2× EBITDA of $33.8B |
| Fees | $6.2B | 2% of the price |
| New debt | $186.1B | 5.5× EBITDA at 7.65% a year; the limit that binds: 5.5× EBITDA |
| Buyer's own money | $130.8B | 41% of the cost |
5 years under the buyer
| Year | Revenue | EBITDA | Interest | Free cash flow | Debt left |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | $101.3B | $36.6B | $14.2B | $9.1B | $177.0B |
| Year 2 | $108.2B | $39.0B | $13.5B | $11.1B | $166.0B |
| Year 3 | $114.1B | $41.2B | $12.7B | $13.0B | $152.9B |
| Year 4 | $119.0B | $42.9B | $11.7B | $14.9B | $138.0B |
| Year 5 | $122.5B | $44.2B | $10.6B | $16.6B | $121.4B |
The exit and the buyer's return
| Exit | Amount | |
|---|---|---|
| Exit multiple | 7.7× EBITDA | today's trading multiple, before any premium |
| Enterprise value at exit | $338.4B | |
| − Debt left | $121.4B | |
| = Buyer's equity | $217.0B | |
| Money multiple | 1.66× | on $130.8B put in |
| Buyer's yearly return (IRR) | 10.7% |
Price against return
What the buyer makes at other premiums over today's $160.59; the IRR reaches 20% at $161.62 a share.
| Premium | Price a share | Buyer's IRR |
|---|---|---|
| 10% | $176.65 | 17.2% |
| 20% | $192.71 | 13.9% |
| 30% | $208.77 | 10.7% |
| 40% | $224.83 | 7.9% |
| 50% | $240.88 | 5.5% |
The figures used
| Figure | Amount | |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue, last 12 months | $93.8B | |
| EBITDA, last 12 months | $33.8B | 36.1% of revenue |
| Depreciation and amortization | $14.5B | |
| Capital spending | $10.1B | |
| Debt | $92.6B | |
| Cash | $5.6B | |
| Share price | $160.59 | on Nov 5, 2026 |
Fixed rules, the same as the interactive view's starting point: the shares are bought at today's price plus 30%, the company's debt is refinanced and fees take 2%. New debt is the least of 5.5× EBITDA, 65% of the price and the amount whose interest EBITDA covers 2 times, at 7.65% a year (SOFR 3.89% plus the high-yield B spread 3.26% plus 0.5%, rates of Oct 15, 2026). Revenue grows 8.0% in the first year — the company's own rate, held between −3% and +8% — fading to 3% by year 5; the EBITDA margin, depreciation and capital spending stay at today's share of revenue; working capital takes 10% of each year's added revenue; tax is 24% of profit after interest. Every dollar of free cash flow repays debt. After 5 years the buyer sells at today's multiple of EBITDA.
What a takeover could cost
Takeovers on record paid a median premium of 32.5% over the share price before the deal (the middle half 20% to 51.8%), according to the 1,437 merger proxies and tender-offer responses on EDGAR that state a premium. At the median, T-Mobile US would cost about $212.78 a share, $228.0B for all its shares.
| Premium | % | Price a share | All shares |
|---|---|---|---|
| Low end (a quarter of deals paid less) | 20% | $192.71 | $206.5B |
| Median | 32.5% | $212.78 | $228.0B |
| High end (a quarter paid more) | 51.8% | $243.78 | $261.2B |
The odds, from history
Historically 2.1% of companies with its figures were bought within a year (0.43× the average). Its figures put it in decile 1 of 10 (10 = the most likely to be bought). The odds come from a model of every merger proxy, tender-offer response and going-private statement filed on EDGAR since 2011, set against each company's size, margins, debt, cash flow and growth the year before.
T-Mobile US' latest quarter
T-Mobile US, Q3 2026: revenue $23.6B (+7% year over year), operating margin 24.0%, net earnings $3.5B, operating cash flow $7.3B. The chart follows the revenue to costs, profit and cash.
Questions
Is T-Mobile US being acquired?
No headline, 8-K or 13D about a sale is on file in the last year.
Could private equity buy T-Mobile US?
A leveraged buyout at today's price plus 30% ($208.77 a share) would return about 11% a year to a private-equity buyer over 5 years; the most a buyer could pay for a 20% return is $161.62 a share (1% against today's $160.59). At $310.7B it would be larger than any buyout on record (the model flags anything over $60 billion), so this is a thought experiment more than a prospect.
What would a takeover of T-Mobile US cost?
Takeovers on record paid a median premium of 32.5% over the share price before the deal (the middle half 20% to 51.8%), according to the 1,437 merger proxies and tender-offer responses on EDGAR that state a premium. At the median, T-Mobile US would cost about $212.78 a share, $228.0B for all its shares.
Updated Nov 8, 2026. Read automatically from SEC filings and public data; errors are possible. Not investment advice.