Filing Flows › Travel & Leisure (TNL) › Takeover & LBO
Is Travel & Leisure (TNL) a takeover target?
A leveraged buyout at today's price plus 30% ($93.17 a share) would return about 4% a year to a private-equity buyer over 5 years; the most a buyer could pay for a 20% return is $29.29 a share (−59% against today's $71.67). It already carries 8.5× EBITDA in net debt (the model flags anything over 6×), so a buyer could add little debt of its own. Historically 2.7% of companies with its figures were bought within a year (0.54× the average).
The buyout, step by step
| Entry | Amount | How |
|---|---|---|
| Offer price a share | $93.17 | today's $71.67 plus 30% |
| × shares | 62.6 million | |
| = Equity value | $5.8B | |
| + Debt refinanced | $6.1B | |
| − Cash | $324M | |
| = Enterprise value | $11.6B | 17.2× EBITDA of $672M |
| Fees | $231M | 2% of the price |
| New debt | $3.7B | 5.5× EBITDA at 7.65% a year; the limit that binds: 5.5× EBITDA |
| Buyer's own money | $8.1B | 69% of the cost |
5 years under the buyer
| Year | Revenue | EBITDA | Interest | Free cash flow | Debt left |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | $4.3B | $703M | $283M | $217M | $3.5B |
| Year 2 | $4.5B | $733M | $266M | $248M | $3.2B |
| Year 3 | $4.7B | $760M | $247M | $279M | $3.0B |
| Year 4 | $4.9B | $786M | $226M | $311M | $2.6B |
| Year 5 | $5.0B | $810M | $202M | $344M | $2.3B |
The exit and the buyer's return
| Exit | Amount | |
|---|---|---|
| Exit multiple | 15.2× EBITDA | today's trading multiple, before any premium |
| Enterprise value at exit | $12.3B | |
| − Debt left | $2.3B | |
| = Buyer's equity | $10.0B | |
| Money multiple | 1.24× | on $8.1B put in |
| Buyer's yearly return (IRR) | 4.3% |
Price against return
What the buyer makes at other premiums over today's $71.67; the IRR reaches 20% at $29.29 a share.
| Premium | Price a share | Buyer's IRR |
|---|---|---|
| 10% | $78.84 | 6.9% |
| 20% | $86.00 | 5.6% |
| 30% | $93.17 | 4.3% |
| 40% | $100.34 | 3.2% |
| 50% | $107.50 | 2.1% |
The figures used
| Figure | Amount | |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue, last 12 months | $4.2B | |
| EBITDA, last 12 months | $672M | 16.2% of revenue |
| Depreciation and amortization | $131M | |
| Capital spending | $95.0M | |
| Debt | $6.1B | |
| Cash | $324M | |
| Share price | $71.67 | on Oct 30, 2026 |
Fixed rules, the same as the interactive view's starting point: the shares are bought at today's price plus 30%, the company's debt is refinanced and fees take 2%. New debt is the least of 5.5× EBITDA, 65% of the price and the amount whose interest EBITDA covers 2 times, at 7.65% a year (SOFR 3.89% plus the high-yield B spread 3.26% plus 0.5%, rates of Oct 15, 2026). Revenue grows 4.6% in the first year — the company's own rate, held between −3% and +8% — fading to 3% by year 5; the EBITDA margin, depreciation and capital spending stay at today's share of revenue; working capital takes 10% of each year's added revenue; tax is 30% of profit after interest. Every dollar of free cash flow repays debt. After 5 years the buyer sells at today's multiple of EBITDA.
What a takeover could cost
Takeovers on record paid a median premium of 32.5% over the share price before the deal (the middle half 20% to 51.8%), according to the 1,437 merger proxies and tender-offer responses on EDGAR that state a premium. At the median, Travel & Leisure would cost about $94.96 a share, $5.9B for all its shares.
| Premium | % | Price a share | All shares |
|---|---|---|---|
| Low end (a quarter of deals paid less) | 20% | $86.00 | $5.4B |
| Median | 32.5% | $94.96 | $5.9B |
| High end (a quarter paid more) | 51.8% | $108.80 | $6.8B |
The odds, from history
Historically 2.7% of companies with its figures were bought within a year (0.54× the average). Its figures put it in decile 2 of 10 (10 = the most likely to be bought). The odds come from a model of every merger proxy, tender-offer response and going-private statement filed on EDGAR since 2011, set against each company's size, margins, debt, cash flow and growth the year before.
Travel & Leisure's latest quarter
Travel & Leisure, Q3 2026: revenue $1.1B (+6% year over year), operating margin 17.7%, net earnings $108M, operating cash flow $130M. The chart follows the revenue to costs, profit and cash.
Questions
Is Travel & Leisure being acquired?
No headline, 8-K or 13D about a sale is on file in the last year.
Could private equity buy Travel & Leisure?
A leveraged buyout at today's price plus 30% ($93.17 a share) would return about 4% a year to a private-equity buyer over 5 years; the most a buyer could pay for a 20% return is $29.29 a share (−59% against today's $71.67). It already carries 8.5× EBITDA in net debt (the model flags anything over 6×), so a buyer could add little debt of its own.
What would a takeover of Travel & Leisure cost?
Takeovers on record paid a median premium of 32.5% over the share price before the deal (the middle half 20% to 51.8%), according to the 1,437 merger proxies and tender-offer responses on EDGAR that state a premium. At the median, Travel & Leisure would cost about $94.96 a share, $5.9B for all its shares.
Updated Nov 8, 2026. Read automatically from SEC filings and public data; errors are possible. Not investment advice.