Filing Flows › Trex (TREX) › Takeover & LBO
Is Trex (TREX) a takeover target?
A leveraged buyout at today's price plus 30% ($66.48 a share) would return about 1% a year to a private-equity buyer over 5 years; the most a buyer could pay for a 20% return is $37.96 a share (−26% against today's $51.14). Historically 3.4% of companies with its figures were bought within a year (0.67× the average).
The buyout, step by step
| Entry | Amount | How |
|---|---|---|
| Offer price a share | $66.48 | today's $51.14 plus 30% |
| × shares | 101.8 million | |
| = Equity value | $6.8B | |
| + Debt refinanced | $0 | |
| − Cash | $3.3M | |
| = Enterprise value | $6.8B | 21.0× EBITDA of $323M |
| Fees | $135M | 2% of the price |
| New debt | $1.8B | 5.5× EBITDA at 7.65% a year; the limit that binds: 5.5× EBITDA |
| Buyer's own money | $5.1B | 74% of the cost |
5 years under the buyer
| Year | Revenue | EBITDA | Interest | Free cash flow | Debt left |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | $1.4B | $348M | $136M | $46.1M | $1.7B |
| Year 2 | $1.5B | $372M | $132M | $60.1M | $1.7B |
| Year 3 | $1.6B | $392M | $128M | $73.9M | $1.6B |
| Year 4 | $1.6B | $409M | $122M | $87.0M | $1.5B |
| Year 5 | $1.7B | $421M | $115M | $99.2M | $1.4B |
The exit and the buyer's return
| Exit | Amount | |
|---|---|---|
| Exit multiple | 16.1× EBITDA | today's trading multiple, before any premium |
| Enterprise value at exit | $6.8B | |
| − Debt left | $1.4B | |
| = Buyer's equity | $5.4B | |
| Money multiple | 1.05× | on $5.1B put in |
| Buyer's yearly return (IRR) | 1.0% |
Price against return
What the buyer makes at other premiums over today's $51.14; the IRR reaches 20% at $37.96 a share.
| Premium | Price a share | Buyer's IRR |
|---|---|---|
| 10% | $56.25 | 5.8% |
| 20% | $61.37 | 3.2% |
| 30% | $66.48 | 1.0% |
| 40% | $71.60 | −1.0% |
| 50% | $76.71 | −2.7% |
The figures used
| Figure | Amount | |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue, last 12 months | $1.3B | |
| EBITDA, last 12 months | $323M | 25.2% of revenue |
| Depreciation and amortization | $76.8M | |
| Capital spending | $113M | |
| Debt | $0 | |
| Cash | $3.3M | |
| Share price | $51.14 | on Oct 30, 2026 |
Fixed rules, the same as the interactive view's starting point: the shares are bought at today's price plus 30%, the company's debt is refinanced and fees take 2%. New debt is the least of 5.5× EBITDA, 65% of the price and the amount whose interest EBITDA covers 2 times, at 7.65% a year (SOFR 3.89% plus the high-yield B spread 3.26% plus 0.5%, rates of Oct 15, 2026). Revenue grows 8.0% in the first year — the company's own rate, held between −3% and +8% — fading to 3% by year 5; the EBITDA margin, depreciation and capital spending stay at today's share of revenue; working capital takes 10% of each year's added revenue; tax is 27% of profit after interest. Every dollar of free cash flow repays debt. After 5 years the buyer sells at today's multiple of EBITDA.
What a takeover could cost
Takeovers on record paid a median premium of 32.5% over the share price before the deal (the middle half 20% to 51.8%), according to the 1,437 merger proxies and tender-offer responses on EDGAR that state a premium. At the median, Trex would cost about $67.76 a share, $6.9B for all its shares.
| Premium | % | Price a share | All shares |
|---|---|---|---|
| Low end (a quarter of deals paid less) | 20% | $61.37 | $6.2B |
| Median | 32.5% | $67.76 | $6.9B |
| High end (a quarter paid more) | 51.8% | $77.63 | $7.9B |
The odds, from history
Historically 3.4% of companies with its figures were bought within a year (0.67× the average). Its figures put it in decile 3 of 10 (10 = the most likely to be bought). The odds come from a model of every merger proxy, tender-offer response and going-private statement filed on EDGAR since 2011, set against each company's size, margins, debt, cash flow and growth the year before.
Trex's latest quarter
Trex, Q3 2026: revenue $360M (+26% year over year), operating margin 20.2%, net earnings $52.5M, operating cash flow $153M. The chart follows the revenue to costs, profit and cash.
Questions
Is Trex being acquired?
No headline, 8-K or 13D about a sale is on file in the last year.
Could private equity buy Trex?
A leveraged buyout at today's price plus 30% ($66.48 a share) would return about 1% a year to a private-equity buyer over 5 years; the most a buyer could pay for a 20% return is $37.96 a share (−26% against today's $51.14).
What would a takeover of Trex cost?
Takeovers on record paid a median premium of 32.5% over the share price before the deal (the middle half 20% to 51.8%), according to the 1,437 merger proxies and tender-offer responses on EDGAR that state a premium. At the median, Trex would cost about $67.76 a share, $6.9B for all its shares.
Updated Nov 8, 2026. Read automatically from SEC filings and public data; errors are possible. Not investment advice.