Filing Flows › Tesla (TSLA) › Takeover & LBO
Is Tesla (TSLA) a takeover target?
A leveraged buyout at today's price plus 30% ($446.80 a share) would return a loss of about 1% a year to a private-equity buyer over 5 years; no price, however low, gets a buyer to 20%. At $1.55T it would be larger than any buyout on record (the model flags anything over $60 billion), so this is a thought experiment more than a prospect. Historically 2.5% of companies with its figures were bought within a year (0.5× the average).
The buyout, step by step
| Entry | Amount | How |
|---|---|---|
| Offer price a share | $446.80 | today's $343.69 plus 30% |
| × shares | 3,541.0 million | |
| = Equity value | $1.58T | |
| + Debt refinanced | $8.0B | |
| − Cash | $45.4B | |
| + Other claims | $546M | preferred stock, minority interests |
| = Enterprise value | $1.55T | 169.1× EBITDA of $9.1B |
| Fees | $30.9B | 2% of the price |
| New debt | $50.2B | 5.5× EBITDA at 7.65% a year; the limit that binds: 5.5× EBITDA |
| Buyer's own money | $1.53T | 97% of the cost |
5 years under the buyer
| Year | Revenue | EBITDA | Interest | Free cash flow | Debt left |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | $111.9B | $9.9B | $3.8B | −$11.4B | $61.7B |
| Year 2 | $119.4B | $10.5B | $4.7B | −$12.7B | $74.4B |
| Year 3 | $126.0B | $11.1B | $5.7B | −$14.0B | $88.4B |
| Year 4 | $131.3B | $11.6B | $6.8B | −$15.2B | $103.6B |
| Year 5 | $135.3B | $11.9B | $7.9B | −$16.5B | $120.1B |
The exit and the buyer's return
| Exit | Amount | |
|---|---|---|
| Exit multiple | 129.2× EBITDA | today's trading multiple, before any premium |
| Enterprise value at exit | $1.54T | |
| − Debt left | $120.1B | |
| = Buyer's equity | $1.42T | |
| Money multiple | 0.93× | on $1.53T put in |
| Buyer's yearly return (IRR) | −1.4% |
Price against return
What the buyer makes at other premiums over today's $343.69.
| Premium | Price a share | Buyer's IRR |
|---|---|---|
| 10% | $378.06 | 2.2% |
| 20% | $412.43 | 0.3% |
| 30% | $446.80 | −1.4% |
| 40% | $481.17 | −2.9% |
| 50% | $515.53 | −4.3% |
The figures used
| Figure | Amount | |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue, last 12 months | $103.6B | |
| EBITDA, last 12 months | $9.1B | 8.8% of revenue |
| Depreciation and amortization | $5.7B | |
| Capital spending | $15.4B | |
| Debt | $8.0B | |
| Cash | $45.4B | |
| Share price | $343.69 | on Nov 6, 2026 |
Fixed rules, the same as the interactive view's starting point: the shares are bought at today's price plus 30%, the company's debt is refinanced and fees take 2%. New debt is the least of 5.5× EBITDA, 65% of the price and the amount whose interest EBITDA covers 2 times, at 7.65% a year (SOFR 3.89% plus the high-yield B spread 3.26% plus 0.5%, rates of Oct 15, 2026). Revenue grows 8.0% in the first year — the company's own rate, held between −3% and +8% — fading to 3% by year 5; the EBITDA margin, depreciation and capital spending stay at today's share of revenue; working capital takes 10% of each year's added revenue; tax is 22% of profit after interest. Every dollar of free cash flow repays debt. After 5 years the buyer sells at today's multiple of EBITDA.
What a takeover could cost
Takeovers on record paid a median premium of 32.5% over the share price before the deal (the middle half 20% to 51.8%), according to the 1,437 merger proxies and tender-offer responses on EDGAR that state a premium. At the median, Tesla would cost about $455.39 a share, $1.61T for all its shares.
| Premium | % | Price a share | All shares |
|---|---|---|---|
| Low end (a quarter of deals paid less) | 20% | $412.43 | $1.46T |
| Median | 32.5% | $455.39 | $1.61T |
| High end (a quarter paid more) | 51.8% | $521.72 | $1.85T |
The odds, from history
Historically 2.5% of companies with its figures were bought within a year (0.5× the average). Its figures put it in decile 2 of 10 (10 = the most likely to be bought). The odds come from a model of every merger proxy, tender-offer response and going-private statement filed on EDGAR since 2011, set against each company's size, margins, debt, cash flow and growth the year before.
Tesla's latest quarter
Tesla, Q3 2026: revenue $28.0B (-0.2% year over year), operating margin 2.6%, net earnings $804M, operating cash flow $6.3B. The chart follows the revenue to costs, profit and cash.
Questions
Is Tesla being acquired?
No headline, 8-K or 13D about a sale is on file in the last year.
Could private equity buy Tesla?
A leveraged buyout at today's price plus 30% ($446.80 a share) would return a loss of about 1% a year to a private-equity buyer over 5 years; no price, however low, gets a buyer to 20%. At $1.55T it would be larger than any buyout on record (the model flags anything over $60 billion), so this is a thought experiment more than a prospect.
What would a takeover of Tesla cost?
Takeovers on record paid a median premium of 32.5% over the share price before the deal (the middle half 20% to 51.8%), according to the 1,437 merger proxies and tender-offer responses on EDGAR that state a premium. At the median, Tesla would cost about $455.39 a share, $1.61T for all its shares.
Updated Nov 8, 2026. Read automatically from SEC filings and public data; errors are possible. Not investment advice.