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Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing (TSM): analysis traps
Where its figures could mislead a reader, and what to check before taking them at face value · Data: FY2024, to Dec 31, 2024, filed Apr 17, 2025; rules v1.1
Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing (TSM): 0 rules of 10 triggered on the filings to Dec 31, 2024; 7 with insufficient data; 2 not applicable; 1 out of date. Each is a question to verify, with the normal explanation that would produce the same figures.
Check these first
No rule is triggered on the latest filings, and none is marked to review.
Every rule
A01 FCF growth = the business improved Insufficient data
no working-capital items in the cash bridge for both years
A07 Stock compensation added back = no economic cost Insufficient data
fewer than two fiscal years of stock compensation and share counts on file
B02 Receivables growing = future cash is certain Insufficient data
fewer than five quarters with receivables and revenue on file (a year-over-year comparison needs five)
B08 Adjusted profit = economic profit Insufficient data
no reconciliation table read from the releases yet and fewer than three quarters with both an adjusted and a GAAP EPS
C02 Low net debt = no refinancing risk Insufficient data
no debt figure could be read from the balance sheet (the filing may tag it in other lines)
D03 EPS growth = profit growth Insufficient data
no quarter with EPS, net income and diluted shares for both this year and last
E02 Low P/E at a cyclical peak = undervalued Insufficient data
0 fiscal years of net income on file; a cycle needs five
E07 A precise DCF value = the true value Out of date confidence high
the latest filing is from 2025-04-17: the finding is out of date, not cleared
J06 A bank's low P/E and high profit = safe Not applicable
not a bank
J08 A REIT's low net income = the dividend is unsafe Not applicable
not a REIT
What the statuses mean
Triggered: the filings show the pattern; read the normal explanations and the missing evidence before concluding anything. To review: one quarter or a weak signal; a reader's judgement, not a pattern. Not triggered: the pattern is absent on these figures. Insufficient data: the filings read so far do not hold what the rule needs; this is not a clean bill. Not applicable: the rule is not meant for this kind of company (a bank's working capital, a loss-making quarter's EPS growth). Out of date: the latest filing is more than fifteen months old.
Severity is what the pattern could mean for cash, value or solvency; confidence is how reliable the inputs and the reading are. The two are kept apart.
Record a view
A reader's judgement, grounds, what would change it and the next review; kept in the browser (needs JavaScript).
Every rule and the companies it triggers on →
Each rule reads the company's own filings by a fixed formula and says what would explain the same figures innocently. A triggered rule is a question to verify, not a finding of manipulation, and not a view on the stock. Missing data is shown as missing, never as clear. Not investment advice.