Filing Flows › Trane Technologies (TT) › Takeover & LBO
Is Trane Technologies (TT) a takeover target?
A leveraged buyout at today's price plus 30% ($510.16 a share) would return about 3% a year to a private-equity buyer over 5 years; the most a buyer could pay for a 20% return is $286.27 a share (−27% against today's $392.43). At $115.8B it would be larger than any buyout on record (the model flags anything over $60 billion), so this is a thought experiment more than a prospect. Historically 2.4% of companies with its figures were bought within a year (0.49× the average).
The buyout, step by step
| Entry | Amount | How |
|---|---|---|
| Offer price a share | $510.16 | today's $392.43 plus 30% |
| × shares | 221.4 million | |
| = Equity value | $112.9B | |
| + Debt refinanced | $4.6B | |
| − Cash | $1.8B | |
| + Other claims | $22.8M | preferred stock, minority interests |
| = Enterprise value | $115.8B | 25.3× EBITDA of $4.6B |
| Fees | $2.3B | 2% of the price |
| New debt | $25.1B | 5.5× EBITDA at 7.65% a year; the limit that binds: 5.5× EBITDA |
| Buyer's own money | $93.0B | 79% of the cost |
5 years under the buyer
| Year | Revenue | EBITDA | Interest | Free cash flow | Debt left |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | $25.1B | $4.9B | $1.9B | $1.9B | $23.2B |
| Year 2 | $26.8B | $5.3B | $1.8B | $2.3B | $20.9B |
| Year 3 | $28.3B | $5.6B | $1.6B | $2.7B | $18.1B |
| Year 4 | $29.5B | $5.8B | $1.4B | $3.1B | $15.0B |
| Year 5 | $30.3B | $6.0B | $1.2B | $3.4B | $11.6B |
The exit and the buyer's return
| Exit | Amount | |
|---|---|---|
| Exit multiple | 19.6× EBITDA | today's trading multiple, before any premium |
| Enterprise value at exit | $117.2B | |
| − Debt left | $11.6B | |
| = Buyer's equity | $105.6B | |
| Money multiple | 1.14× | on $93.0B put in |
| Buyer's yearly return (IRR) | 2.6% |
Price against return
What the buyer makes at other premiums over today's $392.43; the IRR reaches 20% at $286.27 a share.
| Premium | Price a share | Buyer's IRR |
|---|---|---|
| 10% | $431.67 | 7.0% |
| 20% | $470.92 | 4.7% |
| 30% | $510.16 | 2.6% |
| 40% | $549.40 | 0.7% |
| 50% | $588.64 | −0.9% |
The figures used
| Figure | Amount | |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue, last 12 months | $23.2B | |
| EBITDA, last 12 months | $4.6B | 19.7% of revenue |
| Depreciation and amortization | $407M | |
| Capital spending | $371M | |
| Debt | $4.6B | |
| Cash | $1.8B | |
| Share price | $392.43 | on Nov 6, 2026 |
Fixed rules, the same as the interactive view's starting point: the shares are bought at today's price plus 30%, the company's debt is refinanced and fees take 2%. New debt is the least of 5.5× EBITDA, 65% of the price and the amount whose interest EBITDA covers 2 times, at 7.65% a year (SOFR 3.89% plus the high-yield B spread 3.26% plus 0.5%, rates of Oct 15, 2026). Revenue grows 8.0% in the first year — the company's own rate, held between −3% and +8% — fading to 3% by year 5; the EBITDA margin, depreciation and capital spending stay at today's share of revenue; working capital takes 10% of each year's added revenue; tax is 19% of profit after interest. Every dollar of free cash flow repays debt. After 5 years the buyer sells at today's multiple of EBITDA.
What a takeover could cost
Takeovers in its sector paid a median premium of 40% over the share price before the deal (the middle half 14.7% to 60.2%), according to the 20 merger proxies and tender-offer responses on EDGAR that state a premium. At the median, Trane Technologies would cost about $549.40 a share, $121.6B for all its shares.
| Premium | % | Price a share | All shares |
|---|---|---|---|
| Low end (a quarter of deals paid less) | 14.7% | $450.12 | $99.7B |
| Median | 40% | $549.40 | $121.6B |
| High end (a quarter paid more) | 60.2% | $628.67 | $139.2B |
The odds, from history
Historically 2.4% of companies with its figures were bought within a year (0.49× the average). Its figures put it in decile 1 of 10 (10 = the most likely to be bought). The odds come from a model of every merger proxy, tender-offer response and going-private statement filed on EDGAR since 2011, set against each company's size, margins, debt, cash flow and growth the year before.
Trane Technologies' latest quarter
Trane Technologies, Q3 2026: revenue $6.8B (+18% year over year), operating margin 19.9%, net earnings $1.0B, operating cash flow $1.3B. The chart follows the revenue to costs, profit and cash.
Questions
Is Trane Technologies being acquired?
No headline, 8-K or 13D about a sale is on file in the last year.
Could private equity buy Trane Technologies?
A leveraged buyout at today's price plus 30% ($510.16 a share) would return about 3% a year to a private-equity buyer over 5 years; the most a buyer could pay for a 20% return is $286.27 a share (−27% against today's $392.43). At $115.8B it would be larger than any buyout on record (the model flags anything over $60 billion), so this is a thought experiment more than a prospect.
What would a takeover of Trane Technologies cost?
Takeovers in its sector paid a median premium of 40% over the share price before the deal (the middle half 14.7% to 60.2%), according to the 20 merger proxies and tender-offer responses on EDGAR that state a premium. At the median, Trane Technologies would cost about $549.40 a share, $121.6B for all its shares.
Updated Nov 8, 2026. Read automatically from SEC filings and public data; errors are possible. Not investment advice.